June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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srainhoutx
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Slow moving storms across Central Brazoria County have prompted a Flood Advisory.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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SusieinLP
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2nd day in row a good rain missed my yard by a few miles...
BlueJay
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I am watching some rain looking clouds approach my house.

I hope we get something measurable!
TexasBreeze
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About an inch out of a small stalled storm by the house by Hooks airport!
Paul Robison

Any severe weather likely Sunday or the remainder of this week?
BlueJay
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No measurable rain for us today.

High & dry - 16
Wet & wild - 5

I predict wet and wild in Houston next Saturday, the 28th.
Paul Robison

BlueJay wrote:No measurable rain for us today.

High & dry - 16
Wet & wild - 5

I predict wet and wild in Houston next Saturday, the 28th.

Why?
BlueJay
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Why?

I've got plans in the big H on the 28th!

That's why. LOL
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srainhoutx
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A very complicated and complex weather pattern is developing across our Region this week and could being bouts of very heavy rainfall. The upper pattern places Texas between two weather features in a stagnant summertime flow with a trough/shear axis across the Lone Star State. Typically such a pattern lends to rounds of daily heavy slow moving storms where 1 to 2 inch per hour rainfall rates are common and possibly higher if training storms develop. The area will be trapped between an Upper Ridge to our S and E and a Western trough with embedded short waves crossing Texas with a very tropical air mass planted across the Region. PW's are expected to increase to the 2+ inch mark and no capping. Convective temperatures should be in the low to mid 80's allowing storms to fire about anytime. To further complicate the forecast are mesoscale features that can not be determined beyond 4 to 6 hours as well as old outflow boundaries that could further enhance heavy rainfall.

Abundant deep/rich tropical moisture is streaming across Mexico into Texas in the mid to upper levels awaiting any 'trigger' such as small short wave energy traveling across Northern Mexico into the Southern Plains beneath a stalled out frontal boundary. The concern is that with a very weak N to NW flow aloft that any upper air disturbances will remain somewhat stationary across our Region and there is a potential that daily squall lines will drop S into Texas and focus multiple days of heavy rainfall. Another fly in the ointment is that a couple of upper air lows could take on warm core charactistics and bring heavy nocturnal rain/storm events which could lead to flooding issues.

The pattern is expected to continue into late week and possibly into next weekend. Another issue is a surge of tropical moisture currently in the Western Caribbean Sea will arrive around Tuesday night into Wednesday. The computer models are not much help as the range from very wet (Euro/Canadian/UKMet) to some what progressive and drier (GFS). Our upper pattern can be traced all the back to the Western Pacific near Japan so we will need to watch daily how all the various weather features upstream develop.. That said typically when we see such a long lasting trough pattern anchored across Texas in June, very heavy rainall events can happen and lead to multiple days of very unsettled weather. Stay Tuned!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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Jeff has issued an afternoon Update regarding the potential for heavy rainfall across our Region. It is also noteworthy that over the past several days, the NCEP Tropical Cyclone Genesis Probabilities have been very elevated. The trend continued with the 12Z suite of NCEP guidance with near a 100% probability of some sort of tropical disturbance potentially developing near Veracruz to Tampico.
06222014 12Z NCEP TC Genesis Probs genprob_aeperts_2014062212_altg_000_120.png
Jeff's Update just issued...

Period of prolonged high rain chances appear in the offering over the next several days and possibly beyond.

Upper air pattern supportive of past majoring flooding events in TX appears to be shaping up for most of this week across the state. 500-300mb ridging has been unable to gain a strong foothold over the state as in the past several summers and will weaken/break down even more over the next 48 hours. Upper level weakness (trough of low pressure) between an upper level high over the SW US and a second upper level high over the SW Atlantic Ocean will result in a favorable atmospheric profile for widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into next weekend. Tropical tap of mid and high level moisture is seen streaming NNE across MX from the eastern Pacific while a pool of deep tropical moisture over the central Caribbean Sea (PWS at or above 2.0 inches) is moving WNW and will landfall on the TX coast by Tuesday afternoon.

Global models are in fair enough agreement suggesting a trough or shear axis will actually become increasingly better defined along and east of I-35 during the week and begin to interact with the surging Caribbean moisture. Forecasted profiles show the atmosphere becoming saturated with time as the air mass takes on strong tropical characteristics.

First will see an increase in seabreeze generated convection Tuesday as the moisture surges inland and the lack of capping from upper level ridging allows low trigger temperatures (mid 80’s). Extremely tropical air mass will be in place by mid week and threat will then focus on potential overnight/early morning speed convergence near/along the coast to enhance thunderstorms. Rainfall rates will be fairly high in such an air mass and there appears to be little change in the pattern through next weekend so daily shots of heavy rainfall appear at least possible.

Patterns such as this in the past (July 2012 and July 2002) have resulted in significant rainfall amounts and major flooding across portions of TX as weak vort centers tend to focus much like dying tropical systems in such a tropical like air mass and storm motions tend to be on the very slow side. The CMC model was hinting at such a feature developing over SE TX in the Wed-Thurs time period and lifting north into N TX by late week, but it is the only global model showing such a well defined feature at the moment and is likely on the extreme end of the spectrum.

Regardless additional rainfall appears likely helping to reduce drought conditions and hopefully generate some run-off into area lakes.
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