June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

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srainhoutx
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Slow moving storms across Central Brazoria County have prompted a Flood Advisory.
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SusieinLP
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2nd day in row a good rain missed my yard by a few miles...
BlueJay
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I am watching some rain looking clouds approach my house.

I hope we get something measurable!
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About an inch out of a small stalled storm by the house by Hooks airport!
Paul Robison

Any severe weather likely Sunday or the remainder of this week?
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No measurable rain for us today.

High & dry - 16
Wet & wild - 5

I predict wet and wild in Houston next Saturday, the 28th.
Paul Robison

BlueJay wrote:No measurable rain for us today.

High & dry - 16
Wet & wild - 5

I predict wet and wild in Houston next Saturday, the 28th.

Why?
BlueJay
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Why?

I've got plans in the big H on the 28th!

That's why. LOL
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srainhoutx
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A very complicated and complex weather pattern is developing across our Region this week and could being bouts of very heavy rainfall. The upper pattern places Texas between two weather features in a stagnant summertime flow with a trough/shear axis across the Lone Star State. Typically such a pattern lends to rounds of daily heavy slow moving storms where 1 to 2 inch per hour rainfall rates are common and possibly higher if training storms develop. The area will be trapped between an Upper Ridge to our S and E and a Western trough with embedded short waves crossing Texas with a very tropical air mass planted across the Region. PW's are expected to increase to the 2+ inch mark and no capping. Convective temperatures should be in the low to mid 80's allowing storms to fire about anytime. To further complicate the forecast are mesoscale features that can not be determined beyond 4 to 6 hours as well as old outflow boundaries that could further enhance heavy rainfall.

Abundant deep/rich tropical moisture is streaming across Mexico into Texas in the mid to upper levels awaiting any 'trigger' such as small short wave energy traveling across Northern Mexico into the Southern Plains beneath a stalled out frontal boundary. The concern is that with a very weak N to NW flow aloft that any upper air disturbances will remain somewhat stationary across our Region and there is a potential that daily squall lines will drop S into Texas and focus multiple days of heavy rainfall. Another fly in the ointment is that a couple of upper air lows could take on warm core charactistics and bring heavy nocturnal rain/storm events which could lead to flooding issues.

The pattern is expected to continue into late week and possibly into next weekend. Another issue is a surge of tropical moisture currently in the Western Caribbean Sea will arrive around Tuesday night into Wednesday. The computer models are not much help as the range from very wet (Euro/Canadian/UKMet) to some what progressive and drier (GFS). Our upper pattern can be traced all the back to the Western Pacific near Japan so we will need to watch daily how all the various weather features upstream develop.. That said typically when we see such a long lasting trough pattern anchored across Texas in June, very heavy rainall events can happen and lead to multiple days of very unsettled weather. Stay Tuned!
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srainhoutx
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Jeff has issued an afternoon Update regarding the potential for heavy rainfall across our Region. It is also noteworthy that over the past several days, the NCEP Tropical Cyclone Genesis Probabilities have been very elevated. The trend continued with the 12Z suite of NCEP guidance with near a 100% probability of some sort of tropical disturbance potentially developing near Veracruz to Tampico.
06222014 12Z NCEP TC Genesis Probs genprob_aeperts_2014062212_altg_000_120.png
Jeff's Update just issued...

Period of prolonged high rain chances appear in the offering over the next several days and possibly beyond.

Upper air pattern supportive of past majoring flooding events in TX appears to be shaping up for most of this week across the state. 500-300mb ridging has been unable to gain a strong foothold over the state as in the past several summers and will weaken/break down even more over the next 48 hours. Upper level weakness (trough of low pressure) between an upper level high over the SW US and a second upper level high over the SW Atlantic Ocean will result in a favorable atmospheric profile for widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into next weekend. Tropical tap of mid and high level moisture is seen streaming NNE across MX from the eastern Pacific while a pool of deep tropical moisture over the central Caribbean Sea (PWS at or above 2.0 inches) is moving WNW and will landfall on the TX coast by Tuesday afternoon.

Global models are in fair enough agreement suggesting a trough or shear axis will actually become increasingly better defined along and east of I-35 during the week and begin to interact with the surging Caribbean moisture. Forecasted profiles show the atmosphere becoming saturated with time as the air mass takes on strong tropical characteristics.

First will see an increase in seabreeze generated convection Tuesday as the moisture surges inland and the lack of capping from upper level ridging allows low trigger temperatures (mid 80’s). Extremely tropical air mass will be in place by mid week and threat will then focus on potential overnight/early morning speed convergence near/along the coast to enhance thunderstorms. Rainfall rates will be fairly high in such an air mass and there appears to be little change in the pattern through next weekend so daily shots of heavy rainfall appear at least possible.

Patterns such as this in the past (July 2012 and July 2002) have resulted in significant rainfall amounts and major flooding across portions of TX as weak vort centers tend to focus much like dying tropical systems in such a tropical like air mass and storm motions tend to be on the very slow side. The CMC model was hinting at such a feature developing over SE TX in the Wed-Thurs time period and lifting north into N TX by late week, but it is the only global model showing such a well defined feature at the moment and is likely on the extreme end of the spectrum.

Regardless additional rainfall appears likely helping to reduce drought conditions and hopefully generate some run-off into area lakes.
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srainhoutx
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06222014 mcd0147.gif
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0147
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
426 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 222025Z - 230025Z

SUMMARY...A SMALL BUT PERSISTENT AREA OF HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METRO REGION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT SWD...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
WEAKENING TOWARD 00Z.

DISCUSSION...LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 IN/HR HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVER SEVERAL COUNTIES JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
DALLAS-FORT WORTH METRO WITH TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES SINCE EARLY
THIS MORNING PER COOP REPORTS. MEAN LAYER FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY
WEAK TOWARD THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH MOIST 925-850 MB INFLOW
ATOP A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR 25 TO 30 KTS ALLOWING
REGENERATION OF CONVECTION OVER THE SAME AREAS. THERE HAS BEEN
SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE INFLOW BY 5 TO 10 KTS PER KGRK VAD
WIND PROFILE OBSERVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AS WELL AS A
SLIGHT VEERING TOWARD THE SSW.

THE AREA REMAINS CONNECTED TO LOW LEVEL MOIST INFLOW FROM THE GULF
AS WELL AS MOISTURE ALOFT WITH A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION TIED TO A
DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE MESOSCALE UPPER WAVE
OVER DALLAS-FORT WORTH IS EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED
VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW...HELPING TO OFFSET THE CURRENT
BALANCE IN PLACE. A GRADUAL SWD OR SWWD SHIFT IN THE HEAVIEST
RAINS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL DISSIPATION.

THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND 12Z NSSL WRF
WHICH HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE ONGOING RAINFALL REASONABLY WELL.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...
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Portastorm
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Great information srain! It appears that areas like north central Texas at the moment will be popping up around the state for much of this week. If one is in the bullseye, the rain yield would be significant. How different this June has been as compared to the last few years.
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Looks like some rain coming over from Victoria area.
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Unless these are false readings?
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srainhoutx
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The NCEP TC genesis probabilities are a combination of multiple operational and shorter range meso guidance. While they serve a purpose from tracking the various levels from the surface to 500mb, they can be useful for tracking surface troughs which the NHC is already mentioning developing across the S Central Gulf later tomorrow and moving into the NW Gulf on Tuesday in their 8:00PM Tropical Discussion. As Jeff agreed and mentioned, the tropical wave nearing the NW Caribbean will cross over the Yucatan and add additional rich tropical moisture near or greater than 2 inches along the Texas Coast late on Tuesday. The 12Z GFS showed a similar warm core feature from the surface to 700mb developing along the Middle Texas Coast on Wednesday and slowly drifting N on Thursday not too much different than the Canadian model had been advertising. Anytime a surface trough lingers across Coastal Texas in June, typically it spells abundant rainfall opportunities. Therefore we will have to watch and wait to see how things unfold. Pressures are not expected to be unusaully low, but weak upper ridging aloft does assist ventilation of any weak surface low that may develop. The operational 18Z GFS did suggest multiple low centers along the Gulf Coast of Mexico near Tampico drifting generally NW.
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Portastorm
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Ed, based on real-time radar ... that HRRR run looks a bit clueless. Rain chances here in Austin have been ramped up considerably by EWX just this morning. Gone from 20% POPs to 70%. Mesoscale continues intact and heads south into central/south central Texas.

Looks to be a rather exciting weather week!
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srainhoutx
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A 60 to 70 knot jet streak is crossing W Central Texas entering Central Texas at this hour from the WNW moving ESE. Visible imagery shows the agitated CU field near the Edwards Plateau and additional bubbling in W Central Texas along the dry line. Storms have maintained some strength across the Killeen/Temple area as the entire complex races SE around 35 to 40 mph. Moisture from the NW Caribbean is surging NW as the tropical wave axis crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. The shorter range guidance is indicating a rather robust convective warm core complex drifting N toward the Texas Coast associated with the wave axis tomorrow as well. Keep an eye for an additional storm complex to develop this evening across potions of the Panhandle and Permian Basin much like the complex that is currently crossing the Lone Star State that had its origin in Colorado yesterday evening.
062320104 14Z TX VIS latest.jpg
06232014 1440Z Gulf Surface Analysis GULF_latest.gif
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Short range models definitely underestimated moisture around the area. Pw values in the corpus area for the 12z sounding were in the 2 inch range. The boundary associated with these storms are kicking scattered storms ahead of it. Just keep an eye on satellite and radar as convective temps are met. We will see how any upper air dry air will mix down later in the evening.
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The radar is really lighting-up, even around here well ahead of the squall line. That's encouraging.
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06232014 day1otlk_20140623_1630_prt.gif
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF THE FRONT RANGE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF ERN TX...NWRN
LA...AND SWRN AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AND SPREAD EAST
INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND WEST TEXAS. OTHER SEVERE STORMS
POSING PRIMARILY A SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

...SYNOPSIS...
WEAK TO MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH
RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SMALL SCALE BANDS OF RELATIVELY STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER ASCENT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/SUSTAINED DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LARGER SCALE TROUGH FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES. THESE
DISTURBANCES...IN CONCERT WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
BETTER ORGANIZED TSTMS DURING THE DIUNRAL HEATING CYCLE.

DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW...WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NM/CO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADING WEST THIS EVENING.

...CO/NM/WEST TX...
WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 15-30KT SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
THROUGH TODAY WITH LARGER SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINING QUITE
LIMITED. THUS...PRIMARY FACTORS DRIVING ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT APPEAR TO BE OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND DIURNAL HEATING. AS
SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUFFICIENTLY
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD INDUCE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER FORCING REMAIN
WEAK...STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EAST INTO AN AXIS OF GREATER
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. POCKETS OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
SRH SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NERN CO
WHERE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER. MULTICELL STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HIGH
WINDS APPEAR MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

...ARKLATEX...
A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM SERN OK INTO
NERN TX AND THEN WWD ACROSS CNTRL TX LATE THIS MORNING. THE MCV
ASSOCIATED WITH AN OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS CENTERED OVER OK
AND IS FCST TO DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MODEST ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FEATURES WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS FROM TX COASTAL PLAIN ACROSS THE TXK AREA.
DEEP MOISTURE AND POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED ROBUST MULTICELLULAR TSTMS...PERHAPS ORGANIZING INTO LINE
SEGMENTS NEAR REMNANT OUTFLOW. A FEW TO SEVERAL WET DOWNBURST WIND
EVENTS APPEAR POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING.

...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
STRONG DESTABILIZATION WAS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK MCV. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE POCKETS OF MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SOME GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION WITH
TIME. SIMILAR TO POINTS SOUTH...EXPECT A FEW TO SEVERAL TSTM WINDS
EVENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

..CARBIN/JIRAK.. 06/23/2014
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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