June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Texaspirate11
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Snowman wrote:now correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like most of the rain is heading for western Louisiana. It looks like we may just get the edge of it in southeast Texas

Looks to be that way - most of the heavier stuff is in the GOM - off our coast here.
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Rip76
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Your turn Louisiana.
Snowman
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Texaspirate11 wrote:
Snowman wrote:now correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like most of the rain is heading for western Louisiana. It looks like we may just get the edge of it in southeast Texas

Looks to be that way - most of the heavier stuff is in the GOM - off our coast here.
Well even if the rain is a bust at least we have some cloud cover to keep us cool for a couple of days!
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srainhoutx
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The general thinking is the cloud debris left from the early morning storms stabilized the atmosphere over Houston. The guidance and the NWS offices from San Antonio/Austin/Corpus and Houston/Galveston are suggesting a big surge of greater moisture from the Western Gulf arriving around mid night and very heavy rainfall of an additional 4 to 6 inches with some isolated totals of 6 to 10 inches possible as a strong convective complex develops tonight. We will see.
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djmike
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Headed all for SWLA. Has something changed? Will new development start later and provide SETX with more rain??
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djmike
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Was this shift towards Louisiana expected?
Mike
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JasonFontaine
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Unexpected? Man - look through most of the posts on here....one thing is CERTAIN....NOTHING is CERTAIN when it comes to weather forecasting....NOTHING. (examples through countless posts lol)
so - take MOST everything on here with a grain of salt....it's guesstimating at best....but all in all - it's a fun read!
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jasons2k
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yeah we are caught in no-man's land today due to the stable air and everything down in the Gulf. Keep a close watch because things will likely change overnight...
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djjordan
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Gonna really have to watch overnight into Thursday. I'll be up tonight for sure.
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djjordan
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HGX seems to be going with the flow and taking a watch and nowcast attitude. Not overly confident. Some areas may see alot, other areas may see a little. Depends on how everything continues to unfold.


DISCUSSION...
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN...BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES FELL OVER THE
NORTHWEST ZONES FROM CALDWELL TO BRYAN TO CROCKETT WITH
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE MORNING
CONVECTION THAT ROLLED THROUGH HOUSTON STABILIZED THINGS AND SENT
A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE GULF. A LARGE MCS DEVELOPED ON
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THIS FEATURE CUT OFF THE INFLOW AND
PRODUCED THICK CLOUD COVER TO RETARD HEATING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTN...LIMITING HEATING. THAT SAID...
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA AND WEST OF MATAGORDA
BAY. BOTH AREAS SHOW INCREASING SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SO NEED TO
WATCH CLEARING TREND THIS AFTERNOON. ANY APPRECIABLE HEATING WILL
TRIGGER SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE LESS BULLISH WITH
RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT NOT SURE WHY. PW VALUES
ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR 2.00 INCHES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE MIDDLE 80S. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ACROSS EAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF A
CONFLUENT FLOW IN THE AFTN. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS AND MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SINCE THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN. CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BUT AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN TODAY DID NOT RECEIVE
MUCH RAIN IN PRIOR DAYS AND THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN
YESTERDAY DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH RAINFALL TODAY. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS STILL REASONABLY HIGH SO WILL FOREGO THE WATCH AT THIS
TIME. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS TRENDING DRIER FOR THURSDAY SO IT IS
WITH SHAKY CONFIDENCE THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS MENTIONED.

PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1.90 INCHES ON FRIDAY WHICH IS
STILL PLENTY MOIST. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S WHICH IS
REACHABLE SO STILL EXPECTING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
HEATING. PW VALUES DROP A BIT MORE ON SATURDAY AND FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE SOUNDING BETWEEN 900-700 MB.
TRIMMED POPS BACK A LITTLE ON SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUN/MON. LOWERED RAIN CHANCES AND RAISED
TEMPS DUE TO INCREASING 850 MB TEMPS AND BUILDING HEIGHTS. 43
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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