September 2014: Seasonably Warm & Dry To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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srainhoutx
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RECON missions tasked for 99L include a possible NASA Global Hawk (drone) high altitude research mission.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1245 PM EDT SUN 31 AUGUST 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-092

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 01/1730Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 01/1445Z
D. 20.0N 93.5W
E. 01/1700Z TO 01/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 02/0530Z, 1130Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 02/0230Z
D. 20.5N 95.0W
E. 02/0500Z TO 02/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY......CONTINUE 6-HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AS LONG AS IT REMAINS
A THREAT.

3. REMARKS: POSSIBLE NASA GLOBAL HAWK RESEARCH MISSION
OVER SUSPECT AREA TAKING OFF AT 02/1100Z.
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srainhoutx
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The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances for tropical development in the Western Gulf next week to 60%...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and Belize has become a little
better organized over the past few hours. However, land interaction
is expected to limit significant development while the disturbance
moves across the Yucatan peninsula later today and tonight.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development once the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Forecaster Pasch
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08312014 2PM EDT two_atl_5d0.png
08312014 1708Z Gulf VIS latest.jpg
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Ptarmigan
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With Fall approaching, we should pay attention to the East Pacific as hurricanes tend to turn towards Mexico. Their moisture goes over Texas and dump rain. Sometimes they lead to flooding. An El Nino Fall is more likely to see this happening.

East Pacific Hurricane Remnants That Affected Texas
Norma (1981)
Paul (1982)
Tico (1983)
Waldo (1985)
Newton (1986)
Paine (1986)
Roslyn (1986)
Raymond (1989)
Rachel (1990)
Lester (1992)
Lidia (1993)
Rosa (1994)
Ismael (1995)
Lester and Madeline (1998)
Marty (2003)
Javier (2004)
John (2006)
Lane (2006)
Norbert (2008)
Miriam and Norman (2012)

Some have caused severe flooding like in 1981, 1982, 1994, and 1998.
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Hmmm. So be careful what you wish for!

Happy Labor Day everyone!
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srainhoutx
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The area of disturbed weather across the Yucatan Peninsula with a broad area of lower pressures is nearing the Bay of Campeche this morning. The computer models are lackluster in developing this disturbance/tropical wave as it moves WNW around 10 MPH towards the Gulf Coast of Mexico.
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09012014 1230Z GULF VIS latest.jpg
09012014 06Z Tracks 99L_tracks_06z.png
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Hey Steve do you have the link for the vortex messages from the aircraft? I deleted it and can't remember.

Thank You much,
Mike
JMS
SR. ENSC.
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srainhoutx
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desiredwxgd wrote:Hey Steve do you have the link for the vortex messages from the aircraft? I deleted it and can't remember.

Thank You much,
Mike
You can follow the RECON updates directly from the NHC site page.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php

Also the other useful RECON page is...


http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/
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srainhoutx
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Update from Jeff:

Tropical wave that has been tracked for the last several days is moving into the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico this morning.

Visible satellite images along with surface observations indicate that a broad area of low pressure has developed along the tropical wave axis over the extreme SE Gulf of Mexico. Deep convection is currently limited to areas to the east and southeast of the broad circulation or over the land areas of the Yucatan peninsula.

The National Hurricane Center currently gives the system a 70% chance of development over the next 5 days.

Track:
Large scale but weak ridging is building along the US Gulf coast and this should be just enough to keep any tropical system moving WNW or NW toward eastern MX south of the TX coast. This is in agreement with most of the model guidance favoring a track toward the Tampico, MX area.

Intensity:
Global models are not very supportive of this system and show only modest development prior to landfall over mainland MX. The circulation appears fairly large on satellite images this morning suggesting it will take time to consolidate and based on the current and expected forward motion there is only about 48 hours of time over water prior to landfall in Mexico. While upper level conditions are favorable with weak shear aloft…it appears the system will run out of time to gather much more strength than a weak tropical storm before landfall.

TX Impacts:
Deep tropical moisture is clearly seen moving NW over the central Gulf of Mexico on the north side of the circulation and this will arrive on the TX coast Tuesday into Wednesday. Expect an increase in waves of showers and thunderstorms both days as the moisture flows inland. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are possible with isolated higher amounts in any training bands.

ESE fetch will be increasing and helping to build Gulf of Mexico swells as the tropical system deepens over the SW Gulf of Mexico. This will support an increase in wave action and tides along the entire TX coast by mid week. Currently not looking at any water levels much higher than last week on the upper TX coast.
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09012014 Jeff image001.png
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Statiscally, it seems like the area around Corpus Christi, north & south, is way over due for a TS. I'm not hoping for anything serious, just a TS that moves inland toward C. Texas so we can get a drought buster in here.
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texoz wrote:Statically, it seems like the area around Corpus Christi, north & south, is way over due for a TS. I'm not hoping for anything serious, just a TS that moves inland toward C. Texas so we can get a drought buster in here.

If the GFS and its ensembles are correct, the Western Caribbean and the Western Gulf continue to look disturbed with lower pressures and possibly a tropical disturbance or two in the medium to longer range. They have been very insistent on keeping an unsettled pattern into mid September. It is getting close to that time of year when a stalled front/trough may hang up across Texas before that first strong cold front pushes in and ends any threat of tropical mischief for the NW Gulf.
The attachment 09012014 12Z GEFS Spread Members gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_17.png is no longer available
09012014 12Z GEFS Spread Members gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_17.png
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It seems the wind has picked up a bit this afternoon.
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09012014 TD 5 4PM CDT 203647W5_NL_sm.gif
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
400 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
low pressure area over the southwest Gulf of Mexico found a
well-defined center of circulation. The system has a curved band of
deep convection that wraps around the southern and eastern portions
of the circulation. Thus the system is being designated as a
tropical depression at this time. The maximum winds reported by the
aircraft so far support an intensity of 25 kt. Although the
cyclone is situated over very warm waters of near 30 deg C, the
atmospheric environment is not ideal for strengthening. Dynamical
models indicate that significant northerly to northwesterly
vertical shear should affect the tropical cyclone for the next 36
hours and this is likely to limit intensification up to landfall.
After landfall, dissipation should be quick due to the mountainous
terrain of Mexico. The official wind speed forecast is a little
above the intensity model consensus.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or around 295/11. The
steering scenario appears to be fairly straightforward. The flow
to the south of a mid-level ridge along the northern Gulf of Mexico
coast should maintain a west-northwestward track for the next 36
hours, i.e. through the expected time of landfall. The official
track forecast is very close to the latest dynamical model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 20.1N 93.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 21.1N 94.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 21.9N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 22.4N 97.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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i think its a little northeast of of 4pm model.
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We are receiving a nice little shower with a dab of thunder right now. How nice for the first day of September!

0.07 inches for the first day of September. Pretty good! :D
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skidog40 wrote:i think its a little northeast of of 4pm model.
It is possible that this could come inland near or just S of La Pesca in the State of Tamaulipas.
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On a Fall discussion, could we ( Texas or Houston) be having a cold (cool) front coming next week?


From our friend Ntxw on Storm 2K...( any mets wanna chime in here...:) )

As in my post earlier today, the EURO and other longterm guidance looks a little better today. Still within the 7 day period not much but 7-10 there is a massing (seasonal shift) of colder air pooling in NA (Hello there MR -EPO). Some kind of front will likely make it down here next week. With 93E in the EPAC getting it's act together (should be in the Baja vicinity) we have a tropical connection. Will need to wait a few more days to see if the two features interact and fine tune.
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TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
400 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
cyclone early this morning found 925 mb flight-level winds of 50-53
kt in the northeast quadrant and adjusted SFMR winds of at least 40
kt. In addition, two ASCAT overpasses at 0313 UTC and 0406 UTC
indicated surface winds of 40-41 kt in the eastern quadrant. Based
on these wind data, the intensity has been increased to 40 kt,
making the cyclone the fourth tropical storm of the 2014 Atlantic
hurricane season. These wind data also required the initial
position to be relocated about 60 nmi north of the previous track.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 305/12 kt, which is
based on a blend of passive microwave, scatterometer, and
conventional satellite fix data. Other than the northward relocation
of the center position, the forecast track reasoning remains
unchanged from the previous advisories. The tropical storm is
expected to gradually turn more toward the west-northwest as Dolly
skirts along the southern periphery of a strong mid-level ridge that
is located across most of the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern
United States. Landfall along the northeastern coast of Mexico is
expected in about 24 hours, followed by dissipation in 48 hours
over the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains. The
NHC forecast track is similar to the consensus model TVCA, and lies
roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope.

About 20 kt of north-northwesterly vertical shear is affecting
Dolly, which has resulted in most of the convection being displaced
well to the south and east of the exposed low-level circulation.
However, new convection has recently developed near and just to the
southeast of the center, and with the shear forecast to decrease to
about 15 kt during the next 12 hours, some additional slight
strengthening is possible before Dolly makes landfall.

The surface wind data from the reconnaissance aircraft and the
two scatterometer passes indicate that the tropical-storm-force wind
field has expanded significantly in the eastern semicircle. Since
the pressure gradient between Dolly and the large high over the
Gulf of Mexico is expected to remain quite strong for the next 36
hours or so, the Government of Mexico has extended the tropical
storm warning area northward to Barra El Mezquital. However, no
additional northward extension of the warning area appears likely
at this time.

The primary threat from this system is expected to be heavy
rainfall, which is likely to cause flash flooding and mud slides
over portions of eastern Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 22.6N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 23.1N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 23.7N 97.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 24.1N 98.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Morning Update from Jeff:

TD # 5 becomes the 4th tropical storm of the 2014 hurricane season….Dolly.

Discussion:
Data from the latest USAF plane indicates the center of circulation has reformed about 60 miles northward overnight. The aircraft also recorded 925mb flight level winds of 50-53kts and a satellite overpass indicated surface winds of around 40kts…thus the system is upgraded to a tropical storm with 45mph winds. The aircraft also indicates that the wind field has greatly expanded to the northeast and east of the center with tropical storm force winds extending outward to 115 miles from the center. This wind field expansion is a result of the increasing pressure gradient between the deepening surface low with Dolly and high pressure over the southern US.

Track:
Besides the center re-location which requires a northward shift in the forecast track there has been no change in the forecast reasoning and Dolly should gradually turn toward the WNW and W and cross the eastern coast of Mexico within the next 24 hours. Dolly will move generally along the southern edge of an increasingly strong mid level ridge building along the US Gulf coast. There is a fairly tight model track consensus and the forecast track forecast is above average.

Intensity:
Dolly is under about 20kts of NNW wind shear on the eastern side of an upper level ridge along the eastern Mexican coast. This wind shear should continue through landfall with only some slight additional increase in intensity. Rapid weakening and dissipation is expected within the first 12-24 hours of landfall.

Impacts:
The center re-location overnight and the expanding wind field required the tropical storm warning to be shifted northward to about 100 miles south of the TX border. The larger wind field will help to increase large long period swells across the central and western Gulf of Mexico for the next 48 hours. Not expecting any significant water level rise on the upper coast associated with the fetch or wave action, but could get close to 2.0 ft total water level rise on the lower TX coast south of Rockport which could place water near the base of the dune on Padre Island.

Deep moisture will be flowing into the region today on the northeast side of the circulation with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms likely. Brief heavy rainfall is likely, but fairly quick storm motions should prevent any significant accumulations or flooding.
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A quick look at the medium to longer range suggests once we get beyond this weeks mini heat wave, things may begin to change as the zonal flow across North America becomes much more amplified. A rather deep trough is suggested by the ensembles to dig S into the Plains and that tends to suggest a stalling boundary somewhere across Texas. The other fly in the ointment is unusually lower pressures developing across the Western Caribbean and the Western Gulf. That pattern in the Western Atlantic Basin has persisted for a week now via the ensembles. When we see a pattern persist beyond a week, it raises an eyebrow. Something to watch as the week unfolds.
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09022014 06Z GEFS 240 gfs-ens_mslpa_sd_watl_41.png
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srainhoutx
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As mentioned this morning, the pattern in the medium to longer range is getting a bit interesting. The ensembles continue to suggest very low pressures across the Western Caribbean and the Western Gulf and a deep trough continues to be indicated by the ensembles across Central North America. The Analog dates in the afternoon Update from the CPC Day 8+ Analogs raise an eyebrow and with the potential of a very unsettled pattern across the SW Caribbean to the Western Gulf. We may need to follow things a bit more closely in the coming days. We will see.
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