September 2014: Seasonably Warm & Dry To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Post Reply
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

RECON missions tasked for 99L include a possible NASA Global Hawk (drone) high altitude research mission.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1245 PM EDT SUN 31 AUGUST 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-092

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 01/1730Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 01/1445Z
D. 20.0N 93.5W
E. 01/1700Z TO 01/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 02/0530Z, 1130Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 02/0230Z
D. 20.5N 95.0W
E. 02/0500Z TO 02/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY......CONTINUE 6-HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AS LONG AS IT REMAINS
A THREAT.

3. REMARKS: POSSIBLE NASA GLOBAL HAWK RESEARCH MISSION
OVER SUSPECT AREA TAKING OFF AT 02/1100Z.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances for tropical development in the Western Gulf next week to 60%...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and Belize has become a little
better organized over the past few hours. However, land interaction
is expected to limit significant development while the disturbance
moves across the Yucatan peninsula later today and tonight.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development once the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Forecaster Pasch
Attachments
08312014 2PM EDT two_atl_5d0.png
08312014 1708Z Gulf VIS latest.jpg
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3982
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

With Fall approaching, we should pay attention to the East Pacific as hurricanes tend to turn towards Mexico. Their moisture goes over Texas and dump rain. Sometimes they lead to flooding. An El Nino Fall is more likely to see this happening.

East Pacific Hurricane Remnants That Affected Texas
Norma (1981)
Paul (1982)
Tico (1983)
Waldo (1985)
Newton (1986)
Paine (1986)
Roslyn (1986)
Raymond (1989)
Rachel (1990)
Lester (1992)
Lidia (1993)
Rosa (1994)
Ismael (1995)
Lester and Madeline (1998)
Marty (2003)
Javier (2004)
John (2006)
Lane (2006)
Norbert (2008)
Miriam and Norman (2012)

Some have caused severe flooding like in 1981, 1982, 1994, and 1998.
BlueJay
Posts: 938
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:47 am
Location: Alden Bridge-The Woodlands, Texas
Contact:

Hmmm. So be careful what you wish for!

Happy Labor Day everyone!
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

The area of disturbed weather across the Yucatan Peninsula with a broad area of lower pressures is nearing the Bay of Campeche this morning. The computer models are lackluster in developing this disturbance/tropical wave as it moves WNW around 10 MPH towards the Gulf Coast of Mexico.
Attachments
09012014 1230Z GULF VIS latest.jpg
09012014 06Z Tracks 99L_tracks_06z.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
desiredwxgd
Posts: 125
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 6:30 pm
Location: TX/LA/Southern New England
Contact:

Hey Steve do you have the link for the vortex messages from the aircraft? I deleted it and can't remember.

Thank You much,
Mike
JMS
SR. ENSC.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

desiredwxgd wrote:Hey Steve do you have the link for the vortex messages from the aircraft? I deleted it and can't remember.

Thank You much,
Mike
You can follow the RECON updates directly from the NHC site page.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php

Also the other useful RECON page is...


http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Update from Jeff:

Tropical wave that has been tracked for the last several days is moving into the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico this morning.

Visible satellite images along with surface observations indicate that a broad area of low pressure has developed along the tropical wave axis over the extreme SE Gulf of Mexico. Deep convection is currently limited to areas to the east and southeast of the broad circulation or over the land areas of the Yucatan peninsula.

The National Hurricane Center currently gives the system a 70% chance of development over the next 5 days.

Track:
Large scale but weak ridging is building along the US Gulf coast and this should be just enough to keep any tropical system moving WNW or NW toward eastern MX south of the TX coast. This is in agreement with most of the model guidance favoring a track toward the Tampico, MX area.

Intensity:
Global models are not very supportive of this system and show only modest development prior to landfall over mainland MX. The circulation appears fairly large on satellite images this morning suggesting it will take time to consolidate and based on the current and expected forward motion there is only about 48 hours of time over water prior to landfall in Mexico. While upper level conditions are favorable with weak shear aloft…it appears the system will run out of time to gather much more strength than a weak tropical storm before landfall.

TX Impacts:
Deep tropical moisture is clearly seen moving NW over the central Gulf of Mexico on the north side of the circulation and this will arrive on the TX coast Tuesday into Wednesday. Expect an increase in waves of showers and thunderstorms both days as the moisture flows inland. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are possible with isolated higher amounts in any training bands.

ESE fetch will be increasing and helping to build Gulf of Mexico swells as the tropical system deepens over the SW Gulf of Mexico. This will support an increase in wave action and tides along the entire TX coast by mid week. Currently not looking at any water levels much higher than last week on the upper TX coast.
Attachments
09012014 Jeff image001.png
09012014 Jeff image002.jpg
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
texoz
Posts: 291
Joined: Tue Mar 02, 2010 8:01 am
Contact:

Statiscally, it seems like the area around Corpus Christi, north & south, is way over due for a TS. I'm not hoping for anything serious, just a TS that moves inland toward C. Texas so we can get a drought buster in here.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

texoz wrote:Statically, it seems like the area around Corpus Christi, north & south, is way over due for a TS. I'm not hoping for anything serious, just a TS that moves inland toward C. Texas so we can get a drought buster in here.

If the GFS and its ensembles are correct, the Western Caribbean and the Western Gulf continue to look disturbed with lower pressures and possibly a tropical disturbance or two in the medium to longer range. They have been very insistent on keeping an unsettled pattern into mid September. It is getting close to that time of year when a stalled front/trough may hang up across Texas before that first strong cold front pushes in and ends any threat of tropical mischief for the NW Gulf.
The attachment 09012014 12Z GEFS Spread Members gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_17.png is no longer available
09012014 12Z GEFS Spread Members gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_17.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 45 guests