September 2014: Seasonably Warm & Dry To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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BlueJay
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Well, it's Texas. We know that we will have two out of three happening during this month. Maybe El Niño will guard us from a dangerous hurricane. We will see.
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Ptarmigan
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Like April, September is a cruel month. Many things happened in the month of September. Interestingly, some of the deadliest disasters in American history occurred in September, 1900 Galveston Hurricane, 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane, and 9/11.

1900 Great Galveston Hurricane-September 8, 1900 12,000 Killed
1928 Okeechobee Hurricane-September 13 and 17, 1928 +4,078 Killed
9/11 Terrorist Attacks-September 11, 2001 3,000 Killed
1938 New England Hurricane-September 21, 1938 800 Killed
Atlantic Gulf Hurricane-September 8 and 14, 1919 772 Killed
1935 Labor Day Hurricane-September 2 and 4, 1935 600 Killed
SS Central America Sinking-September 9, 1857 550 Killed (Sank By Hurricane #2)
Bentalha Massacre-September 22–23, 1997 400 Killed
Beslan Massacre-September 1-3, 2004 385 Killed
PS Lady Elgin Sinking-September 8, 1860 300 Killed
Thumb Fire-September 5, 1881 282 Killed
Hurricane Ike-September 13, 2008 195 Killed
UTA Flight 772 Bombing-September 19, 1989 170 Killed
Hurricane Ivan-September 2004 123 Killed
Hurricane Rita-September 24, 2005 120 Killed
Hurricane Frances-September 5, 2004 49 Killed
Hurricane Carla-September 11, 1961 43 Killed
Toulouse chemical Factory Explosion-September 21, 2001 29 Killed
Tian Mingjian Massacre-September 20, 1994 24 Killed
Cuers Massacre-September 24, 1995 15 Killed
Zug Massacre-September 27, 2001 14 Killed
Washington Navy Yard Massacre-September 16, 2013 13 Killed
Camden, New Jersey Massacre-September 6, 1949 13 Killed
Queen Isabella Causeway Collapse-September 15, 2001 8 Killed
Accent Signage Systems Shooting-September 27, 2012 6 Killed
Last edited by Ptarmigan on Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Kludge
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Ptarmigan wrote:Like April, September is a cruel month. Many things happened in the month of September. Interestingly, some of the deadliest disasters in American history occurred in September, 1900 Galveston Hurricane, 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane, and 9/11.

1900 Great Galveston Hurricane-September 8, 1900 12,000 Killed
Hurricane Ike-September 13, 2008 195 Killed
Hurricane Rita-September 24, 2005 120 Killed
Hurricane Carla-September 11, 1961 43 Killed
Wow.
Startling facts.
Seems Texans suffered the brunt. More than all the others combined.
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Texaspirate11
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Houston/Galveston lead the state in disasters.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
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srainhoutx
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A quick look at the next 6 to 14 days is suggesting lowering pressures across the SW Caribbean into the Western Gulf as Hurricane Cristobal exits to the NE into the N Atlantic and the Bermuda Ridge builds back into the East Coast and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. The longer range ensemble guidance is already suggesting the potential for tropical mischief developing in the SW Caribbean Sea and moving generally NW into the Western Gulf in the first 10 days or so of September. These waters are virtually untouched with plenty of warm water with little to no shear and favorable instability. Nothing is forming at this time, but something to monitor as we begin the month of September and reach the peak of tropical development potential in the Atlantic Basin.
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cperk
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srainhoutx wrote:A quick look at the next 6 to 14 days is suggesting lowering pressures across the SW Caribbean into the Western Gulf as Hurricane Cristobal exits to the NE into the N Atlantic and the Bermuda Ridge builds back into the East Coast and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. The longer range ensemble guidance is already suggesting the potential for tropical mischief developing in the SW Caribbean Sea and moving generally NW into the Western Gulf in the first 10 days or so of September. These waters are virtually untouched with plenty of warm water with little to no shear and favorable instability. Nothing is forming at this time, but something to monitor as we begin the month of September and reach the peak of tropical development potential in the Atlantic Basin.

Great post srainhoutx don't let your guard down.
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srainhoutx
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I have received some inquiries regarding what was mentioned above as well as what the morning update from Jeff offered. What we are currently watching is a surge of easterly trade winds that has been bottled up just E of the Caribbean Islands since Cristobal formed and the deep East Coast trough dropped S into Florida. MIMIC clearly shows the surge of moisture and easterly trade winds pushing W as Cristobal lifts NE. There is also convection across the Northern half of South America firing and beginning to lift WNW into the SW Caribbean Sea. Pressures are expect to fall as we near the weekend timeframe across the SW Caribbean and the potential is in that area for something to spin up and move generally NW.

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srainhoutx
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Typically we would keep tropical activity in the Hurricane Central area of our Forum, but with the increased potential activity closer to home we will follow thing in our Main Weather Page area. The GFS is suggesting a disturbance develops this weekend in the SW Caribbean Sea and slowly moves NW crossing the Yucatan Peninsula and entering the Bay of Campeche early next week. There are indications at this range that another trough will be dropping SE from the Intermountain West and the Upper Ridge will shift a bit E into the Tennessee Valley. We will see.
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08262014 12Z GFS Hour 168 gfs_ir_atl_29.png
08262014 12Z GFS  Hour 168 gfs_oei_atl_29.png
08262014 12Z GFS Hour 168 gfs_z500_mslp_atl_29.png
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srainhoutx
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I want to briefly comment on the potential tropical disturbance that may develop this weekend in Labor Day across the Western Caribbean Sea before everyone gets busy with those end of the simmer Holiday plans. The overnight reliable Global ensembles as well as some of the operational guidance increased odds that more tropical mischief may spin up and enter the Western Gulf next week. The ensemble mean is rather tightly clustered near the Yucatan Peninsula for possible tropical cyclone genesis late on Sunday into Monday. These waters are virtually untouched and very warm and conditions do appear favorable for potential development.
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08272014 8AM EDT two_atl_5d0.png
08272014 00Z Euro Ensemble mean get_legacy_plot-web248-20140827084700-4161-0376.gif
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srainhoutx
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While we are waiting for RECON to arrive investing 98L, the 12Z GFS is showing our next tropical mischief early next week in the Western Gulf...
08272014 12Z Hour 144 gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_24.png
08272014 12Z Hour 144 gfs_z850_vort_watl_25.png
08272014 12Z Hour 144 gfs_vort850_uv200_watl_25.png
08272014 Hour 144 gfs_z700_vort_watl_25.png
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