November 2014: Nice Seanonal Thanksgiving Ahead

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Portastorm
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Let's get the discussion going for one of my favorite weather months in Texas. November is often wild with differing types of weather. This one looks to be along those lines with a major front progged for the first few days.
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Thanksgiving is on November 27th. I am hoping for a crisp cool chamber of commerce type Texas weather to enjoy.
Any predictions on the weather for that day yet or is it way too soon?
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What is guess on the timing of this front in the begining of November? I have plans that weekend of the 1st and 2nd will it be here before the 1st or after the 2nd? Will it be messy that weekend rain wise?
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Freezes are possible in late October to November. There was a freeze around Halloween in 1993. It also possible to see back to back freezes in November. Late November 1992 and 1993 had freezes. The lowest November temperature in Houston is 19°F on November 30, 1976.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_normals_nov
http://threadex.rcc-acis.org/
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The latest 12Z GFS is suggesting 2 meter temperatures dropping into the low 50's Saturday, November 1st and remaining in the 50's throughout the first weekend into the early workweek of November for daytime highs. Nightime lows are in the chilly lower 40's range with some scattered upper 30's in the typically cooler locations of SE Texas if the GFS is correct.
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srainhoutx
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The front/trough to begin November will not be as strong as once suggested but will bring cooler temperatures next weekend. Attention then turns to the Eastern Pacific for increasing moisture as the next Western trough digs S into Arizona and pulls some tropical moisture NE from a developing EPAC tropical cyclone (93E) that may begin to turn NE toward the West Coast of Mexico. The wave lengths are getting shorter as we transition toward a weak El Nino pattern and head deeper into Fall. We will need to monitor early in the first week of November for our first real shot of area wide rainfall as the sub tropical jet from the Pacific becomes more active and storm system with their attending cold fronts arrive more quickly as one would expect in a pattern transitioning to that of a weak to moderate El Nino.
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z Global models are suggesting increasing rain chances as we begin the first week of November. While it is far too soon to get our hopes up for a significant rainfall event across Texas and our local SE/Upper Texas Coast area, the models are suggesting a deepening Western trough may pick up what will likely become Eastern Pacific Hurricane Vance and turn it NE making landfall along the West Coast of Mexico and potentially spreading its moisture across our Region.

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10272014 12Z Euro Hour 192 ecmwf_uv850_vort_namer_9.png
10272014 12Z GFS  Hour 180 gfs_z850_vort_namer_31.png
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srainhoutx
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I'm going to post Jeff's Morning Briefing in the November Topic since next week is becoming a bit more interesting in the weather department after our long boring stretch...

Frontal system moving southward across N TX this morning will cross SE TX on Wednesday.

Upper level pattern across the US is starting to change which will usher in a changing surface pattern and result in something more than to status quo of the past few weeks. Surface front over N TX currently will drift southward and reach the TX coast Wednesday afternoon. Low level moisture continues to increase and pool over the region, but the main jet stream dynamics will remain fairly well removed from our area. Thus frontal lift will be the main culprit for any rainfall on Wednesday as the boundary crosses. Forecast models are not overly excited about rain chances so will go with 30-40% for the area.

A stronger secondary front crosses the area Friday morning resulting in stronger cold air advection and strong drying. North winds will rapidly increase Friday with dewpoints falling into the 40’s. Not expecting much if any rainfall will this front as the Wednesday front should scour out the moisture. Main effect will be gusty winds up to 20-25mph on Friday.

Halloween Evening:
Near ideal conditions with temperatures falling from the mid 70’s at around 600pm to the mid 60’s around 1000pm under clear skies, weakening winds, and low humidity. Sun set Friday is at 636pm.

Next Week:
Rare long string of very nice weather will be ended next week as the US upper air pattern continues to undergo change. The result will be a large scale trough over the western US, possibly becoming cut off from the main flow. The upper flow over TX transitions to a very moist SW flow and as luck would have it…there sits an eastern Pacific tropical system just waiting to supply moisture northward. Large scale trough will send a stalling cold front into TX early in the week while strong moisture advection returns from the Gulf of Mexico starting late Sunday. EPAC tropical system (93E) currently well south of Mexico will become a depression and storm over the next 12-24 hour and track slowly W to WNW south of the Mexican coast. Position of the mean trough over the SW US is in a favorable position to bring copious mid and high level moisture from this system NNE into TX. Models are in surprisingly good agreement on a wet pattern developing late Monday into the middle part of next week and this type of pattern set up has in the past produced some big rains and flooding across the state.
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srainhoutx
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The global guidance regarding 93E S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Eastern Pacific continues to be in good agreement regarding the track. Some of the overnight Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) were most impressive for portions of Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas and Northern Louisiana suggesting potentially anywhere from 3 to 9 inches of rainfall with isolated higher totals as the cut off upper low/trough meanders across the Southern Plains with the remnants of future Eastern Pacific Hurricane Vance and its moisture. It is too soon to know the finer details, but after a long dry spell in October it will be worth monitoring into the weekend.
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SLM87TX
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MAYBE WE ARE LOOKING AT THE MAKINGS OF 1981, 1991, 1998, OR 2004??
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There have been flood events in November in Southeast Texas in these years.
1925
1940
1943
1985
1998
2003
2004

http://threadex.rcc-acis.org/
http://www.wxresearch.com/almanac/houflood.html

This blogger thinks the November 1940 flood event is comparable to October 1994 if not worse.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/1900hu ... 8&month=06

Both the 1929 and the 1940 flood events appear to have had streamflows of over 500000 cfs, more than double the 100 year flow of 225000 cfs. However, It must be noted that using my formula only gave the 1994 flood a flow of ~350000 cfs, about 10000 cfs too low! This could possibly mean that both the 1929 and 1940 floods are underestimated as well. Therefore, it is possible that the streamflow from the 1929 flood could have approached or even exceeded 600000 cfs, making the 1929 flood even more poverful than the Mississippi River above its confluence with the Misourri River during their 1993 and current 2008 floods!!! Apparently, everything's bigger in Texas, including floods...
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I'm just hoping for some kind of rain.
It's been beautifully boring lately. :D
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The overnight guidance has trend colder as we start November. Temperatures in the 20's across the Northern Plains will push S with a secondary front on Halloween bringing gusty Northerly winds and falling temperatures. It looks like some of colders spots may reach the 40's for lows on Saturday night/Sunday morning with upper 60's to low 70's for highs as Day Light Savings Time ends. This is due to a stronger Eastern US trough and piece of cold Canadian air sliding S with a cold Canadian High Pressure cell settling into the Plains/Mid West. Lake effect snow showers are possible Friday night into Saturday with snow showers possible as rather S as the Appalachians of Virginia and the Carolinas.
10292014 prb_24hsnow_ge01_2014102912f072.gif
Changes then develop on Sunday as a deep trough drops S into the West near the Baja and captures a developing tropical system (93E) and pulls it NE. Onshore flow will return in earnest by Sunday tapping some Gulf moisture with increasing mid/upper level moisture from the Eastern Pacific tropical storm. The Western trough appears to attempt to close off over Arizona setting the stage for a complicated forecast with unsettled weather to start the first week of November. Remnant moisture from the Pacific storm should continue streaming NE across Mexico into Texas Monday afternoon/evening. It is too soon to know the exact details with a complex weather pattern 5 days out, but it does appear a wet unsettled weather pattern is developing with a land falling Eastern Pacific cyclone and a deepening SW upper low/trough that could bring the best widespread rain chance we have seen across Texas since September when Eastern Pacific Hurricane Odile and its remnants brought heavy rainfall to our Region.
10292014 122Z 93E_tracks_12z.png
10292014 00Z Euro Mean 120 Hour ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_6.png
10292014 06Z GEFS Mean 120 Hour gfs-ens_z500a_namer_21.png
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The 12Z GFS attempts to develop a Coastal Low next week near the Corpus area and suggests some welcomed rainfall...if it is correct. We will see.
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z Euro is again aggressive with a potential heavy rainfall event across a large area of Texas and Oklahoma late on Monday into Wednesday. The guidance continues to advertise a deep Western trough pumping up a lot of moisture from the Eastern Pacific and a tropical system making landfall along the W Coast of Mexico. The QPF amounts are rather uncertain this far out and due to meso features that cannot be determined beyond the 12 to 18 hour timeframe, but it does appear a powerful jet streak will allow for instability and the potential for heavy rainfall into mid next week.
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Ptarmigan
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srainhoutx wrote:The 12Z Euro is again aggressive with a potential heavy rainfall event across a large area of Texas and Oklahoma late on Monday into Wednesday. The guidance continues to advertise a deep Western trough pumping up a lot of moisture from the Eastern Pacific and a tropical system making landfall along the W Coast of Mexico. The QPF amounts are rather uncertain this far out and due to meso features that cannot be determined beyond the 12 to 18 hour timeframe, but it does appear a powerful jet streak will allow for instability and the potential for heavy rainfall into mid next week.
Looks to be more of a heavy rain event than severe weather. Severe weather has happened in November and there have been tornadoes in 1992, 1993, and 2003.
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Never forget the EF-4 that tore through Channelview in 1992. November can definitely have some very dangerous storms.
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Heat Miser wrote:Never forget the EF-4 that tore through Channelview in 1992. November can definitely have some very dangerous storms.
Very true. Even December can have severe storms and floods as well like in 1913, 1935, 1991, 1994, and 2002.
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Morning Briefing form Jeff:

Strong cold front moving into SE TX and will result in the coldest weather since last spring this weekend.


Increasing confidence in significant and potentially prolonged heavy rainfall event next week.

Cold front is crossing SE TX currently and winds will pick up out of the north a few hours past sunrise this morning. Batch of thunderstorms ahead of the boundary is moving southward across south TX after brushing our western counties overnight. Cold air advection will onset by mid-morning, but will be offset some by the sunny skies. Think temperatures will warm into the low to mid 70’s and then begin to fall by late afternoon. Models continue to trend colder and colder with this air mass and this will require some modification to the temperatures for the weekend and this evening.

Other item of marginal concern this afternoon is fire weather. Gusty N winds of 15-25mph and incoming dry air mass with dewpoints falling into the 30’s and RH values into the 20’s suggest a modest fire weather concern. The past few weeks have been very dry and surface fine fuels have dried as noted in the increased KBDI values. Main threat would be quick moving grass fires mainly in the counties southwest of Houston (Fort Bend, Wharton, Jackson, Matagorda, Brazoria, and Colorado). Current data does not suggest Red Flag Warning conditions will be met this afternoon.

This evening:
Will undercut temperatures by 5 degrees for this evening over yesterday as the temperature fall once the sun sets will likely be a little more rapid. Temperatures at 600pm will be near 70 falling to the upper 50’s by 800pm and the mid 50’s by 1000pm with north winds of 5-10mph.

Weekend:
Will lower morning lows on Saturday into the lower 40’s north of I-10 as guidance has trended colder showing a low of 40 at College Station and 44 at IAH. Weak cold air advection continues on Saturday so temperatures will only top out in the mid to upper 60’s for highs. Even colder on Sunday morning with lows into the upper 30’s around Lake Livingston to near 40 Houston metro and mid 50’s on the coast. Some of the usually cold locations could even dip into the mid 30’s. GFS is showing 33 at Conroe Sunday morning. Do not think any widespread freeze is likely even for our northern counties, but a few locations could have near freezing temperatures and frost especially in low lying areas and river bottoms where the dense cold air will settle during the night.

Next Week:
Major upper air pattern change will result in an extended period of wet weather. A strong upper level trough will drop into the SW US and dig into northern MX early next week which will result in strong return flow and moisture advection off the Gulf of Mexico starting late Sunday. Global models remain inconsistent on their handling of how this trough will evolve and when exactly it progresses across TX. The overnight guidance as trended away from the more progressive solutions being offered yesterday and support a slower and more cut off upper level system which would only serve to prolong what is an already very wet forecast. Will start to lean more toward the slower solution with a stalling cold front reaching into the state on Tuesday and our area Wednesday. As the trough digs into the Baja and northern MX region it will capture then Hurricane Vance off the southwest coast of Mexico and recurve it NNE and NE into the Mexican coast and then bring the remaining moisture across TX. Hurricane track guidance is in fair agreement on this pattern and the latest NHC forecast brings Vance to the Mexican coast late Tuesday evening.

Ahead of the upper trough excessive moisture pouring of the top of Vance and increasing Gulf moisture will saturate the air column. The flow aloft will turn increasingly out of the SW on the downstream side of the upper trough and begin to parallel the frontal boundary resulting in it stalling. Numerous disturbances ejecting out of the trough and Vance will move along the stalling front and produce periods of very heavy training rainfall.

Expect heavy convective rains to begins across N TX on Tuesday and begin to sag southward into central and SE TX Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. Remains of Vance should arrive over top of the region Wednesday and Thursday helping to prolong the heavy rainfall threat. In fact some of the latest guidance hangs on to heavy rainfall into next weekend. PWS values are forecasted to near or exceed 2.0 inches starting late Tuesday and with slowing convection and high potential for cell training excessive rainfall and flooding is becoming a concern. Big question is exactly what happens to the upper trough to our SW and does it cut off and continue the Pacific “El Nino” enhanced tap of moisture through the end of the week as this will be the ultimate determining factor in the duration of the rainfall and the overall totals.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches appears likely for the event, but I strongly caution that these totals may be significantly under forecasted at the moment, but given the onset is still over 4 days away I would not go much higher than that at this time. For what it is worth this is a historical flood setup in the state of TX and in the past similar setups with a stalling frontal boundary, deep upper trough SW of TX, and the remains of an eastern Pacific hurricane have produced devastating flooding in October 1994, October 1998, October 2002, and October 2006.

Vance: Model Track Guidance:
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As Jeff mentioned in his morning briefing, next week offers a real forecasting challenge and certainly a pattern we typically see with an El Nino developing. There remain some slight disagreement with the placing of the cut off 500mb Upper Low to our W, but the new GFS that will go online soon is not all that different than the European computer model. During Fall/Winter we typically see these cut off lows develop in the SW with a stalled boundary across Texas. The computer models continue to advertise a Coastal surface low developing along the S Texas Coast near Corpus Christi next Wednesday. Should a Coastal low develop, rainfall amounts would likely need to be increased rather dramatically across all of our Region. It could be rather raw temperature wise with temperatures in the upper 50's and heavy convective rains most of next week.
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