I would not be surprised to see a Tornado Watch issued for SE TX shortly. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0765
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 210...
VALID 251910Z - 252045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 210 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...DMGG WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL
PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF TORNADO WATCH 210.
AREAS TO THE EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 210 ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A PERSISTENT SUPERCELL
CLUSTER ACROSS BURNET COUNTY MOVING INTO TRAVIS/WILLIAMSON COUNTIES
TX...UNDERGOING SEVERAL INTERACTIONS WITH ANCILLARY CELL DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL/TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE INFLUX OF RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LCLS...AND 100-200 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM
May 2015 Record Setting May Rainfall Totals For Region
- Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2501
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
Tornado Watch soon for SE TX. Be weather aware this afternoon and evening.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0767
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK/SWRN AR/E TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 251935Z - 252030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CONTINUED EWD ADVANCE OF A WELL-ORGANIZED MCS ACROSS
CENTRAL TX AND MORE ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS EVOLVING AHEAD OF THE
LINE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL ACROSS THE MD AREA. NEW TORNADO
WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL TX -- INCLUDING A WELL-ORGANIZED BOWING MCS AND
INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE.
THE STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...AND ARE BEING AIDED BY A MID-LEVEL JET STREAM CROSSING
CENTRAL TX S OF A NWRN TX/SWRN OK VORT MAX. WITH THE ENVIRONMENT E
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0767
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK/SWRN AR/E TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 251935Z - 252030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CONTINUED EWD ADVANCE OF A WELL-ORGANIZED MCS ACROSS
CENTRAL TX AND MORE ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS EVOLVING AHEAD OF THE
LINE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL ACROSS THE MD AREA. NEW TORNADO
WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL TX -- INCLUDING A WELL-ORGANIZED BOWING MCS AND
INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE.
THE STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...AND ARE BEING AIDED BY A MID-LEVEL JET STREAM CROSSING
CENTRAL TX S OF A NWRN TX/SWRN OK VORT MAX. WITH THE ENVIRONMENT E
- Portastorm
- Posts: 800
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:04 pm
- Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
- Contact:
We've had a lot of heavy rain and a few broad cyclonic circulations spotted in and around the Austin area. I actually saw one relatively close to my house in SW Austin. But no tornadoes on the ground in the AUS area yet, thankfully. But flash flood/flood threat is real here.
- srainhoutx
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Looks like everything that was starting to pop close to us is getting pulled northward.
- srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19611
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Taking a break gang...Update from Jeff:
Numerous supercells with strong rotation have developed across C TX this afternoon. Currently 5 tornado warnings are in effect and several of these cells have been long tracked supercells.
Boundary layer continues with rich influx of tropical moisture making for low cloud bases in a moderately sheared air mass which is very unstable. HP supercells continue to develop in SSW to NNE fashion just west of I-35 with tornado threat is maximized along with significant flash flooding threat.
Portions of NW/N SE TX may be included in new tornado watch as the central TX activity advances slowly eastward toward SE TX. There is a general decrease in shear values over SE TX, but the air mass locally is unstable with CAPE of 3000 J/kg+ and rich dewpoint air support of HP supercells. Main threat will be along and NW of a line from Columbus to Huntsville.
Additionally, HP supercell training continues now along I-35 and west from NNE of San Antonio to Austin. Very heavy rainfall of 2-3 inches per hour is occurring under these storms. Several counties are under flash flood warnings and flash flooding is developing quickly. Rivers will begin rapid rises as run-off reaches the mainstems. Flooding will be possible along several of the rivers and creeks from San Antonio to Austin over the next few hours.
Numerous supercells with strong rotation have developed across C TX this afternoon. Currently 5 tornado warnings are in effect and several of these cells have been long tracked supercells.
Boundary layer continues with rich influx of tropical moisture making for low cloud bases in a moderately sheared air mass which is very unstable. HP supercells continue to develop in SSW to NNE fashion just west of I-35 with tornado threat is maximized along with significant flash flooding threat.
Portions of NW/N SE TX may be included in new tornado watch as the central TX activity advances slowly eastward toward SE TX. There is a general decrease in shear values over SE TX, but the air mass locally is unstable with CAPE of 3000 J/kg+ and rich dewpoint air support of HP supercells. Main threat will be along and NW of a line from Columbus to Huntsville.
Additionally, HP supercell training continues now along I-35 and west from NNE of San Antonio to Austin. Very heavy rainfall of 2-3 inches per hour is occurring under these storms. Several counties are under flash flood warnings and flash flooding is developing quickly. Rivers will begin rapid rises as run-off reaches the mainstems. Flooding will be possible along several of the rivers and creeks from San Antonio to Austin over the next few hours.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
- TXStormjg
- Severe Weather Specialist
- Posts: 45
- Joined: Thu Jan 27, 2011 9:38 pm
- Location: Cypress, TX
- Contact:
I am wondering if we are going to see ANY rain here in NW Houston...it seems to disapear before it gets here.
JL Geyer
Advanced Skywarn Spotter
Wings Over Houston Staff, Medical Communications
Amateur Radio, KD5YLO
Advanced Skywarn Spotter
Wings Over Houston Staff, Medical Communications
Amateur Radio, KD5YLO
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