JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
unome
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from HGX http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0

000
FXUS64 KHGX 142301
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
601 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2.00 INCHES AND NOMINAL HEATING CONTINUES TO
INITIATE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SE TX. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL
INCREASING MON AFTN FOR HEAVY RAIN AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO 2.50
INCHES. SO MUCH OF WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE ON MONDAY AFTN IS TIED TO
THE SYSTEM IN THE SW GULF. WINDS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY
. WENT PREVAILING TSRA MON AFTN/EVENING. SO MUCH IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE
. 43

&&
Paul Robison

Winds:
Will not go much higher than 40-45mph across the coastal waters although stronger winds are possible in heavy thunderstorms and feeder bands. Worst of the weather will likely be removed to the east side of the center of circulation or across the SE TX waters into SW LA. Tropical storm force winds are possible if not likely across much of the coastal waters late Monday into Tuesday and across the coastal beaches and inland bays early Tuesday. Inland winds of 25-35mph can be expected.



I suspected as much, srainhoutex. Thank you. 25-35 mph winds generally are not damaging.
JasonFontaine
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Until it's over land...one never knows. No guarantee with tropical systems...and I don't like the last few frames of radar...
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Rip76
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Well the Houston area definitely dried out for the eveing.
galvbay
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New member..just checking in on the north side of Galveston Bay. Keeping an open eye in the gulf. galvbay
Paul Robison

dumb question but I'll ask it anyway....

Earlier today, forecasters said that there was very little chance of the disturbance turning into a hurricane. Has they changed their minds about that now?
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srainhoutx
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00Z Tracks and Intensity guidance. Welcome to all our new folks that have joined our weather community and our Facebook and Tweeter feeds. We are glad to have you! Time for this old man to get some rest. The 'night crew' should be active... ;)
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Portastorm
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Paul Robison wrote:dumb question but I'll ask it anyway....

Earlier today, forecasters said that there was very little chance of the disturbance turning into a hurricane. Has they changed their minds about that now?
Paul, in short: no. At this time the expectation is for a tropical storm. Key phrase "at this time."
Paul Robison

Portastorm wrote:
Paul Robison wrote:dumb question but I'll ask it anyway....

Earlier today, forecasters said that there was very little chance of the disturbance turning into a hurricane. Has they changed their minds about that now?
Paul, in short: no. At this time the expectation is for a tropical storm. Key phrase "at this time."
Glad to hear it. One thing I don't get, though, is why people stand on the beach to watch things like this come in. Why?
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Rip76
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Ok.
This is a pretty good look at what is going on "satellite wise."

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/mflash-ir4.html
I see what looks like the main circulation at about 22.5 & 92.5.
But I also see a spin at about 23.5 & 88.
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