January 2016: Mardi Gras WX Outlook

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GBinGrimes
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srain...thanks for the graph and explanation. I really appreciate that.

You and all of the pro's and persons in the know do a great job of explaining our "sensible weather" in sensible terminology for those of us that love weather but aren't well versed in meteorological language. When we're provided some clarity and definitions on the technical, it certainly helps with our understanding of how things happen.

Have a great day!
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srainhoutx
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Beginning to see some strong signals via the ensembles of rather significant Blocking signature particularly over Greenland where heights are very impressive. Notice the developing deep trough settling well S into Mexico. We may be seeing signs via the guidance that those Teleconnection Indices may indeed have an impact on our sensible weather particularly near and beyond mid January.
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harpman
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srainhoutx wrote:Beginning to see some strong signals via the ensembles of rather significant Blocking signature particularly over Greenland where heights are very impressive. Notice the developing deep trough settling well S into Mexico. We may be seeing signs via the guidance that those Teleconnection Indices may indeed have an impact on our sensible weather particularly near and beyond mid January.
Srain, hasn't this been indicated for a while now?
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srainhoutx
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harpman wrote:
Srain, hasn't this been indicated for a while now?
It appears today the signals are a bit stronger, but the Forecaster Adjusted Day 11+ Analogs have been hinting that this possibly could happen. The pattern looks ripe for Coastal lows developing across the NW Gulf and moving E across the Gulf Coastal States. Time will tell if we can get enough cold air in place for wintry mischief potential.
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BiggieSmalls
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Any idea if the bulk of the cold air will come down the Great Plains just east of the Rockies (toward Texas), or sag over the Southeast just giving us a glancing blow, as it often does?
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If the models verify and the a true connection establishes than the cold will slide down the middle of the country using the Rocky Mountain Range as a funnel...and with a through digging deep than it fills in and then engages the southeast and east coast. Basically 2/3 of the nation get the deep freeze in that described situation...ok that's the amateurs take on things but I'm sure Srain can better opine than I...take it away boss!
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Off topic for the Winter thread…….a little early for this in 2016. Development chances for subtropical or tropical development over the next 5 days are at 30%. Alex would be the first name for 2016. NHC Special Tropical Weather Outlook:

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
325 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An extratropical low pressure system centered about 425 miles west-
southwest of Bermuda is producing a large area of gale force winds
and maximum winds of 60 to 65 mph. Environmental conditions are not
expected to be conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone
formation through the weekend while the low moves east-northeastward
into the central Atlantic Ocean. However, conditions could become
conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical
characteristics while it moves east-southeastward into the eastern
subtropical Atlantic Ocean by the middle of next week. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by
3 PM EST Friday. For additional information on this system, please
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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jasons2k
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I got nice 2.35" of rain here last night.
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srainhoutx wrote:Beginning to see some strong signals via the ensembles of rather significant Blocking signature particularly over Greenland where heights are very impressive. Notice the developing deep trough settling well S into Mexico. We may be seeing signs via the guidance that those Teleconnection Indices may indeed have an impact on our sensible weather particularly near and beyond mid January.
if this pans out, any chance I might see some wintry mischief on my trip to n. alabama on the 16/17 time frame?
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srainhoutx
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Evening briefing from Jeff regarding the non tropical low in the Atlantic:

An area for well defined “non-tropical” low pressure has developed off the SW US coast in early January.

Global forecast models show this system drifting toward the E to ENE for the next several days over western Atlantic water temperatures that remain extremely warm and well above average for this time of year. Models show that there is some potential for the system to gradually acquire sub-tropical characteristics over the next 5 days and could potentially become a named sub-tropical storm. Satellite overpass earlier today indicated surface winds over a broad area in the 50-60mph range, but the general center lacks definition and any real deep convection. Should deep convection develop near the and the wind field contract some along with some warming of the central core of the feature then a sub-tropical storm may be declared…its name would be Alex…the first name on the 2016 hurricane season list.

While such features this time of year are rare, they have happened in the past and actual warm core tropical systems have formed in the Atlantic in January….going back to 1900…5 tropical systems have formed in the Atlantic basin
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DoctorMu
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Temps have really underperformed in CLL today and tonight. Omen of a cold column when the dam breaks?
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srainhoutx
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We will need to monitor for the potential of strong to possibly severe thunderstorm development particularly the overnight hours tonight into early Saturday morning across most of SE Texas. The next in the series of Pacific storms looks to travel a bit further S across our Region bringing a bit better dynamics. The primary threat appears to be hail with a gusty thunderstorm or two possible.

The overnight guidance has trended a bit colder in the wake of a strong cold front moving across our Region in the wake of this strong storm system. If we can get the skies to clear and the gusty NW winds to decouple Sunday night into early Monday, a light Freeze is possible mainly N of 1-10 and the typically colder locations. This could bring the first official freeze of the Winter to IAH, so gardeners you to may need to protect your outdoor plants. Will update that potential during the weekend. Stay tuned.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 PM CST THU JAN 07 2016

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TX COAST INTO
SWRN LA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EAST TX INTO SERN LA...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

...EAST TX/LA...

STRONG MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL DIG INTO THE BASE OF PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO...THEN TRANSLATE INTO THE UPPER TX COAST BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. DEEPENING HEIGHT FALLS AND DISTINCTLY
DIFLUENT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS EAST TX INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY ENHANCING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND VENTING ALOFT FOR ROBUST
CONVECTION.

IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...LLJ WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE UPPER TX COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
AID SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION INLAND AND AN
EFFECTIVE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD ESTABLISH ITSELF NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
ALONG SRN FRINGE OF BROADER PRECIP SHIELD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS EAST TX SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL COOLING AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES SHOULD ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR HAIL WITHIN EXIT REGION OF
AFOREMENTIONED SPEED MAX. WHILE AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT...IT APPEARS TRUE SFC-BASED STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP
IF MORE MOIST/BUOYANT GULF AIR MASS STRUGGLES TO ADVANCE INLAND AS
EXPECTED. FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS WHERE WARM ADVECTION WILL STRONGLY
INFLUENCE BROAD CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION...SOME OF IT LIKELY
SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE.

..DARROW/JEWELL.. 01/08/2016
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Safe travels this morning across SE TX. Dense Fog Advisories across all of SE TX until 10AM. Mid to upper level low will push across TX later today and overnight bringing the potential of severe weather from this evening into early Saturday morning. The SPC has a slight risk area across the Upper TX Coast and SW LA as Srain stated. Skies become mostly sunny Saturday behind the cold front with highs in the mid 60s. Sunny skies on Sunday with highs in the low to mid 50s.
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srainhoutx
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Looking ahead to next week, we may need to monitor the late week timeframe. The operational and ensemble guidance is suggesting a very deep longwave trough digging well S into Mexico. There are some indications that a potent upper low may swing across our Region with a Coastal low developing in response to the pressure falls to our N and W. Both the European and GFS schemes suggest some very chilly air building across the Plains funneling down the leeside of the Rockies as the upper trough attempts to take on neutral or negative characteristics with strong cyclogenesis occurring across the Panhandle/West Texas area. While it is way too soon to know the finer details, the Teleconnection Indices have been hinting this would be the timeframe for a chance of a big Winter Storm potential. It will be interesting to see how this potential plays out as we get a bit closer to later next week.
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srainhoutx
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13Z Storm Prediction Center Day One Outlook:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST FRI JAN 08 2016

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SE TX AND WRN LA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING MRGL RISK NWD TO
ARKLATEX AND EWD TO LOWER MS RIVER DELTA REGION OF LA...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OFFER A RISK OF LARGE HAIL OVER PARTS OF EAST
TEXAS AND WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED HAIL RISK MAY EXTEND NORTHWARD FROM
THERE OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO ARE
POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS OR LOUISIANA COASTS.

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...LARGE CYCLONE WILL DRIFT ERRATICALLY OVER WRN
HUDSON BAY REGION...WHILE BASAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD FROM
CURRENT POSITION OVER NRN PORTIONS SK/MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HEIGHT FALLS FROM PORTIONS NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO LS...AND CONTRIBUTE
TO NEWD EJECTION/DEAMPLIFICATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX
NOW INVOF MKC.

PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRAIN ACROSS SRN HALF OF CONUS CHARACTERIZES
SRN BRANCH OF PRONOUNCED SPLIT-FLOW REGIME. MOST PROMINENT
ASSOCIATED FEATURE IS CYCLONE NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL
IMAGERY CENTERED OVER AZ/UT BORDER...WITH BASAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SPEED MAX OVER BAJA. THIS REGIME WILL SHIFT EWD QUICKLY SUCH
THAT 500-MB LOW REACHES TCC AREA BY 00Z...WITH TROUGH SWD ACROSS TX
BIG BEND AND OVER N-CENTRAL MEX. BY END OF PERIOD...HEIGHT FALLS
FARTHER N WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THIS PERTURBATION. 500-MB LOW
SHOULD REACH CENTRAL/ERN OK WITH TROUGH SSWWD OVER S-CENTRAL
TX...AND 500-MB SPEED MAX OF 100-110 KT JUTTING EWD FROM S-CENTRAL
TX TOWARD CENTRAL LA COAST.

AT SFC....LOW WAS ANALYZED AT 11Z OVER MKC AREA...ESSENTIALLY
STACKED WITH 500-MB VORTICITY MAX. COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THERE
SWWD ACROSS SRN OK THEN WWD OVER NW TX AND WILL MOVE SEWD INTO
OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT. SEPARATE WARM/MARINE FRONT WAS DRAWN OVER
GULF OFFSHORE LOWER-MIDDLE TX COAST THEN ARCHING EWD/SEWD ACROSS
NWRN GULF...BECOMING COLD FRONT FROM N-CENTRAL GULF NEWD TO WEAK LOW
BETWEEN AAF-PIE. CURRENTLY COLD PORTION OF FRONT WILL STALL OVER
N-CENTRAL/NERN GULF AND BEGIN RETREATING NWD AS WARM FRONT FROM W-E
WITH TIME. ENTIRE MARINE FRONT WILL SHIFT SHOREWARD OVER
NWRN/N-CENTRAL GULF THROUGH PERIOD...ITS PROGRESS EFFECTIVELY
IMPEDED ON MESOSCALE/ERRATIC BASIS BY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT
SHOULD DEVELOP ON EITHER SIDE OF SE TX/LA COASTLINES. DRYLINE NOW
DEVELOPING INLAND OVER SE AND DEEP S TX WILL BECOME BETTER-DEFINED
TODAY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS SE TX TONIGHT...ACTING AS WRN BOUND FOR
SVR POTENTIAL.

...WRN GULF COASTAL PLAIN...LOWER DELTA...
BECAUSE OF CONVECTIVE/MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES...INLAND PENETRATION
OF WARM SECTOR...MAGNITUDE OF SFC THETAE INLAND...AND THEREFORE
BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION...REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN ATTM. THIS
WILL AFFECT TORNADO/WIND POTENTIAL SUBSTANTIALLY...HOWEVER MORE
CERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HAIL THREAT FROM SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
TSTMS THAT ARE FCST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA FROM LATE AFTN
THROUGH TONIGHT. FCST 500-MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO APCH OR REACH
RECORD-COLD VALUES IN OUTLOOK AREA PRIOR TO FROPA BASED ON SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY...ATOP INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

THIS REGIME WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE ROOTED ATOP SHALLOW/STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE IN 500-1500 J/KG
RANGE...GENERALLY DECREASING NWD. HOWEVER...SOME TSTMS INVOF COAST
MAY BENEFIT FROM INLAND PENETRATION OF RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED WARM
SECTOR...WHICH COULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY SFC-BASED INFLOW WITH
MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG. THIS POTENTIAL IS CONDITIONAL AS DISCUSSED
ABOVE...BUT APPEARS TO JUSTIFY
1. EXISTING MRGL TORNADO PROBABILITIES OVER SE TX/SW LA AND
2. EXTENSION THEREOF FOR LATE TONIGHT OVER SERN LA NEAR-COASTAL
ZONES.

..EDWARDS/MOSIER.. 01/08/2016
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01082016 SPC 13Z day1otlk_20160108_1300_prt.gif
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Yep, next weekend is starting to look pretty darn interesting. Hopefully models will start to lock in on a good winter storm deep into the Lonestar State.
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srainhoutx
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Morning briefing from Jeff:

Fast flow aloft with active southern stream jet will bring another short wave trough quickly into TX this evening. This trough is currently over southern AZ moving rapidly eastward.

A weak frontal boundary stalled overnight near the NW border areas of SE TX with dewpoints in the 40’s compared to dewpoints in the 50’s over much of the region…where fog has been widespread and dense this morning. Moisture advection is already in progress near the coast and will continue to spread inland today while approach of the SW US short wave will bring increasing lift to the region by mid to late afternoon. High resolution guidance struggle to develop thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over the region…with the best chances possibly being centered more toward the Sabine River and eastward. Latest SPC outlook has trimmed more of our area out of the severe risk for late today and tonight and this seems reasonable given what the short term models are suggesting.

As lift increases after 300pm this afternoon expect to see a few showers and maybe a thunderstorm develop from near Freeport northward to near Huntsville and then eastward over the region in corridor of moisture advection off the NW Gulf. Some of these storms could be strong given elevated CAPE of 800-1000 J/kg over the area with any marginal severe threat being from large hail since storms will likely be elevated above a cooler surface layer. This system will quickly push eastward early Saturday ending rain chances.

Strong polar cold front will drop across the area early Saturday ushering in a much colder air mass. Highs on Sunday will likely struggle to get out of the 40’s and lows Monday AM could be near freezing for some areas. Next week brings less forecast confidence as an active sub-tropical jet stream will remain in place over the region with potential for coastal trough formation over the western Gulf of Mexico which could attempt to spread moisture back northward into the cold air resulting in cloudy conditions. Most models keep the coastal trough suppressed far enough south to keep rain chances south of the area. A potentially much more significant storm system will be possible by the end of next week.

SPC Day 1 (Today) Severe Weather Outlook:
01082016 SPC 13Z day1otlk_20160108_1300_prt.gif
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srainhoutx
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The morning Updated Teleconnection Indices and the MJO continue to advertise a pattern capable of delivering a colder and stormier pattern to our Region. We will need to monitor the evolution of these indicators to see if a Hemispheric Pattern Change is truly underway.
01082016 AO ao_sprd2.gif
01082016 Tele Indices 4panel.png
01082016 MJO ALL_emean_phase_full.gif
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srainhoutx
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The Storm Prediction Center issues a Enhanced threat for Severe Storms later today into tonight across the SE Texas area. The main threat is for Hail and possibly damaging gusty thunderstorm winds.
01082016 SPC day1otlk_20160108_1630_prt.gif
01082016 SPC day1probotlk_20160108_1630_hail_prt.gif
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST FRI JAN 08 2016

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF E TX AND WRN/SRN
LA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK
REGION FROM THE ERN THIRD OF TX INTO THE LWR MS VLY...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO
OR TWO...WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY FROM THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NOAM THROUGH SAT...WITH JET STREAK NOW
OVER CA SERVING TO AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AMPLIFY PROGRESSIVE...SRN
BRANCH UPR LOW NOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE E
INTO NRN NM THIS EVE...AND INTO S CNTRL OK EARLY SAT...AS ASSOCIATED
90 KT 500 MB JET STREAK REACHES THE LWR SABINE VLY.

AT THE SFC...EXISTING ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AREA NOW EXTENDING FROM
SW TX INTO MO EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE ARKLATEX LATE TNGT
AND SE AR EARLY SAT...WITH A SEPARATE CENTER POSSIBLY EVOLVING
FARTHER S OVER THE NWRN GULF...ALONG NWRN FRINGE OF SFC-BASED
MARITIME AIR MASS.

...E TX INTO LWR MS VLY LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY SAT...
SSWLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND BROADEN OVER E TX AND THE LWR MS VLY
LATER TODAY INTO TNGT...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR LOW/JET
STREAK...ALLOWING RETURN-FLOW MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD E TX...LA...AND
MUCH OF AR LATER TODAY/TNGT. WHILE MODEL AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW
DATA SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE LIKELY WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY MODEST
/WITH PW GENERALLY INCREASING TO AROUND 1 INCH/...THIS WILL BE AMPLE
TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS GIVEN ARRIVAL OF FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS/DPVA AND MID-LVL COOL ADVECTION WITH THE
UPR TROUGH.

VIS SATELLITE DATA/SFC OBS DO NOT INDICATE PRESENCE OF ANY
WELL-DEFINED BOUNDARIES OVER THE NWRN GULF. COUPLED WITH EXISTING
SFC CONDITIONS OVER SE TX AND EXPECTED PATTERN OF STRENGTHENING
925-850 MB WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT BENEATH SWLY 60-70 KT MID-LVL
JET...SETUP EXPECTED TO FOSTER A FAIRLY CONCENTRATED AREA OF
SLIGHTLY-ELEVATED TSTMS CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL...BEGINNING OVER THE
MIDDLE AND UPR TX GULF CST LATER THIS AFTN AND MOVING/DEVELOPING
NEWD INTO WRN/SRN LA TNGT/EARLY SAT. MORE GREATLY ELEVATED ACTIVITY
WITH SOME RISK FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY EXTEND AS FAR N
AS THEE ARKLATEX AND INTO NRN/ERN LA TNGT.

ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION...A NON-ZERO RISK WILL
EXIST FOR SFC OR NEAR-SFC-BASED STORMS WITH A CONDITIONAL TORNADO
THREAT BY TNGT INVOF THE GULF CST...FROM THE HOU-BPT AREA ENE INTO
SW LA. THIS THREAT MAY EXTEND INTO FAR SE LA EARLY SAT...DEPENDING
UPON DEGREE OF NEWD ADVANCE OF MARITIME WARM FRONT. GIVEN CURRENT
SFC OBS THAT SHOW WEAK...NEAR-SFC COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING ATTM
OVER THE N CNTRL GULF...AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ELEVATED WAA STORMS
TO SOMEWHAT RETARD NEWD ADVANCE OF MARITIME FRONT...HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN EXISTING LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE REGION.

..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 01/08/2016
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx wrote:The morning Updated Teleconnection Indices and the MJO continue to advertise a pattern capable of delivering a colder and stormier pattern to our Region. We will need to monitor the evolution of these indicators to see if a Hemispheric Pattern Change is truly underway.
01082016 AO ao_sprd2.gif
01082016 Tele Indices 4panel.png
01082016 MJO ALL_emean_phase_full.gif
Looks like winter just might get her MoJO back.






*rimshot*

thankaverymuch. Ah'll be here all weekend...
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