January 2016: Mardi Gras WX Outlook

[snowman65]

I saw this model run this morning. January looks to be a time of big changes. Still a long ways out but worth mentioning becoming there are alot of us looking for/hoping for big changes.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php ... r=sc&dpdt=

[srainhoutx]

The medium to longer range guidance is indicating a potential pattern change as we turn the calendar to January 2016. As has been mentioned in the December Topic, the teleconnection indices as well as a favorable MJO Phase 7/8 sequence and the growing potential that the Polar Vortex that has firmly anchored over the North Pole will continue to take a beat and eventually lead to a growing potential of a Stratospheric Warming event ushering in very cold air East of the Continental Divide as the cold Western trough axis shifts to the East and the West warms up. Typically in such a pattern of a +PNA/-AO/-EPO regime with the MJO entering Phase 7/8, the pattern shifts significantly to a colder regime with a trough digging down the Canadian Prairies into the Plains including Texas and on East. The Sub Tropical Jet looks to remain very active with a split flow pattern shifting the Northern jet stream track from the Pacific NW much further N into the Artic on SE as well as disturbances riding ENE out of the Eastern Pacific across Mexico and Texas. Such a pattern in an El Nino pattern suggests cold and unsettled weather will become the norm across our Region with the potential for wintry weather episodes possible as we move further in January. Enjoy the warmth of the days ahead, because we may well see that pattern turn to that of a much more Winter like pattern. We will see.

[Ptarmigan]

I saw this model run this morning. January looks to be a time of big changes. Still a long ways out but worth mentioning becoming there are alot of us looking for/hoping for big changes.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php ... r=sc&dpdt=

Looks like snow from what I have seen. It is too early to tell.

[DoctorMu]

To sleep perchance to dream:

[srainhoutx]

It appears that Santa is going to deliver a New Years present for all the cold weather lovers out there. The overnight teleconnection indices as well as the various computer schemes are indicating a cold and unsettled pattern shifts from the West to the Central and Eastern portions of the Lower 48. An anomalous Western Ridge develops along and offshore of the Pacific Coast Ridging well North into Alaska and Western Canada (+PNA/-EPO/-AO) allowing a significant pattern change as 2016 begins. The MJO forecasts continue to favor the solutions of the Western trough moving East with a split flow pattern of the Polar Jet nudging way up into the Arctic through Alaska as the pesky Aleutian low shift to the West allowing a trough to organize across the Great Plains diving S and E as well as bringing embedded disturbances out of the Pacific Ocean across Mexico into Texas and the Gulf Coast.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon updated Day 8+ and experimental Week 3 to 4 Outlooks suggest the 'coldest' and possibly 'wettest' weather will be situated across our Region.

[srainhoutx]

A quick update this morning regarding the longer range forecast as January begins. The indicators we look to in the extended range that maybe somewhat technical for of the weather novice (ie: Rosby Waves/Teleconnection Indices/MJO Phase 7/8/Sudden Stratospheric Warming potential) remain on the table and are actually showing more signs of a very significant pattern change as we begin January 2016. As previously explained, a big shift East of the pesky Western trough to the Plains and the Eastern 2/3rds of North America are growing into a real possibility. Such a pattern shift with an active El Nino sub tropical jet overhead with the potential of embedded disturbances riding off the Pacific Ocean across Mexico into Texas and the Gulf Coast with much colder air than we have today suggest a chilly and unsettled pattern is likely as we roll the Calendar to 2016. While no two patterns are alike when looking at past events (Analogs), they can offer a clue as to what our sensible weather could be, so we look to those analogs for 'hints' of what the pattern could bring weather wise across our Region. We continue to see the Polar Vortex over the Arctic being impacted and if you will, pulverized by the various technical features mentioned above. All in all it appears the current storm system will get the ball rolling toward a Major shift in the Northern Hemispheric Weather Pattern and may well have impacts to our local Regional Weather.

[Ptarmigan]

It appears that Santa is going to deliver a New Years present for all the cold weather lovers out there. The overnight teleconnection indices as well as the various computer schemes are indicating a cold and unsettled pattern shifts from the West to the Central and Eastern portions of the Lower 48. An anomalous Western Ridge develops along and offshore of the Pacific Coast Ridging well North into Alaska and Western Canada (+PNA/-EPO/-AO) allowing a significant pattern change as 2016 begins. The MJO forecasts continue to favor the solutions of the Western trough moving East with a split flow pattern of the Polar Jet nudging way up into the Arctic through Alaska as the pesky Aleutian low shift to the West allowing a trough to organize across the Great Plains diving S and E as well as bringing embedded disturbances out of the Pacific Ocean across Mexico into Texas and the Gulf Coast.

12252015 Teleconnection indices 4panel.png

12252015 AO ao_sprd2.gif

12252015 Euro Mean MJO ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif

12252015 NCEP MJO NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

12252015 00Z Euro Mean 192 ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_9.png

12252015 06Z GEFS 186 gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_32.png

Some people celebrate Christmas on January 6th and in fact that was the case before it changed to December 25. I notice during a strong El Nino with a warm December, gives way to a cold January.

[Ptarmigan]

A quick update this morning regarding the longer range forecast as January begins. The indicators we look to in the extended range that maybe somewhat technical for of the weather novice (ie: Rosby Waves/Teleconnection Indices/MJO Phase 7/8/Sudden Stratospheric Warming potential) remain on the table and are actually showing more signs of a very significant pattern change as we begin January 2016. As previously explained, a big shift East of the pesky Western trough to the Plains and the Eastern 2/3rds of North America are growing into a real possibility. Such a pattern shift with an active El Nino sub tropical jet overhead with the potential of embedded disturbances riding off the Pacific Ocean across Mexico into Texas and the Gulf Coast with much colder air than we have today suggest a chilly and unsettled pattern is likely as we roll the Calendar to 2016. While no two patterns are alike when looking at past events (Analogs), they can offer a clue as to what our sensible weather could be, so we look to those analogs for 'hints' of what the pattern could bring weather wise across our Region. We continue to see the Polar Vortex over the Arctic being impacted and if you will, pulverized by the various technical features mentioned above. All in all it appears the current storm system will get the ball rolling toward a Major shift in the Northern Hemispheric Weather Pattern and may well have impacts to our local Regional Weather.

I have noticed many big freezes had Sudden Stratospheric Warming. This applied to February 1899, January 1930, and December 1989 (all had single digit temperatures recorded in Houston). The Sudden Stratospheric Warming happens months before the freeze came.

The February 1899 had a large area of warm air in the stratosphere. It encompassed most of Canada, Alaska, and Eastern Russia. Europe had cool air in the Stratosphere that time.

20th Century Reanalysis Daily Composites
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/da ... .day.v2.pl

[snowman65]

at this point, as much as I love the cold, I would be extremely happy with near normal temps...

[srainhoutx]

Looks like the New Year will start cold and wet. The various models suggest another SW Storm system organizing with the potential of a Coastal trough/wave developing long the Lower Texas Coast as a disturbance tracks across Mexico into S Central Texas next weekend.

[snowman65]

Finally got some seasonal weather around here. Better late than never. Hopefully it will hang around for a bit. Donr see anything out of the ordinary coming through temp wise in the next 10 days. pretty average

[Karen]

Any idea on Marathon weekend? Jan. 17th would hate to run in the hot weather we have been having.

[srainhoutx]

Any idea on Marathon weekend? Jan. 17th would hate to run in the hot weather we have been having.

That's a bit too far out for any reliable forecast 'guess', but the longest range CFSv2 Monthly guidance suggest seasonably cool and somewhat dry. Keep in touch and I am sure wxman57 and our other knowledgeable folks/Pro Mets will be updating. Judging by the indicators I see, there isn't any Spring like weather on the horizon for Houston or Texas for that matter.

[BigThicket]

I am new here...so hi y'all! I am a weather enthusiast. I follow Joe Bastardi pretty religiously and begain to look around to find other sources. I found you guys during the N. Tx tornado outbreak because I have family in that area...I commend you guys on your coverage. It was very informative and accurate. Been on a lot of site and the information was hard to filter and depend on its accuracy. One thing I cannot take is wish-casting...lol...this community seams to be very much do driven by facts and educated opinions and that is great!

[srainhoutx]

It looks like the various reliable computer schemes are coming together suggesting another Great Basin upper low with a rather robust disturbance riding the sub tropical jet out of the Eastern Pacific will bring a round of light precipitation, mostly in the liquid form across the Western and Southern half of Texas. There is growing indications that a Coastal wave may develop S of Brownsville enhanced by the approaching disturbance over Mexico may allow over running moisture over a shallow cold dome of High Pressure keeping things dreary as we ring in the New Year.

[WeatherDuck]

It looks like the various reliable computer schemes are coming together suggesting another Great Basin upper low with a rather robust disturbance riding the sub tropical jet out of the Eastern Pacific will bring a round of light precipitation, mostly in the liquid form across the Western and Southern half of Texas. There is growing indications that a Coastal wave may develop S of Brownsville enhanced by the approaching disturbance over Mexico may allow over running moisture over a shallow cold dome of High Pressure keeping things dreary as we ring in the New Year.

What are the chances of "non-liquid" precipitation in the Austin area?

[srainhoutx]

It looks like the various reliable computer schemes are coming together suggesting another Great Basin upper low with a rather robust disturbance riding the sub tropical jet out of the Eastern Pacific will bring a round of light precipitation, mostly in the liquid form across the Western and Southern half of Texas. There is growing indications that a Coastal wave may develop S of Brownsville enhanced by the approaching disturbance over Mexico may allow over running moisture over a shallow cold dome of High Pressure keeping things dreary as we ring in the New Year.

What are the chances of "non-liquid" precipitation in the Austin area?

As of today I believe that areas near Del Rio, Kerrville and perhaps San Angelo have the 'best' chance of any wintry mischief. That said we are more than 5 days out and as we just witnessed, things change quickly. Hopefully by Thursday we will have a better idea as the various features near North America and we see just how much of an influence all that snow across W Texas, New Mexico and the Panhandle has on our sensible weather forecast.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Update from the Climate Prediction Center focused 6 to 10 days Range suggest a cool and slightly wetter than normal pattern across Texas. Louisiana folks are a bit drier, but still chilly with a Eastern US trough. It is also noteworthy that Southern California is now finally in above average range for rainfall. The sub tropical jet appears to remain over our Region, so one would expect mid/upper level cloudiness with embedded disturbance riding along the noisy sub tropical Jetstream. It look like a somewhat typical El Nino Pattern for January.

[BigThicket]

In the past having as much snow on the ground, in such close proximity, as we do...well let's just speculate. 1st does this inhibit the moderation of temperature up stream? 2nd, as the next front comes thru by around the 1st of Jan, do the models not pick up on the lack of moderation and therefor over do the forecasted temperature?? 3rd, how does that effect the dew point? 4th, if the colder air coming in is shallow is it deep enough for sleet or will the warm nose aloft erode the cold air enough to just be a cold rain that actually holds the temperature up? Maybe so of you real weather guys can help out here??? Thanks!