February 2016: Quiet Warm Weather To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Warm weather returns yet again…in a winter that has been warm for TX.

SW winds on the backside of an significant arctic air intrusion over the eastern US will result in a warm day under mainly clear skies. Afternoon temperatures will warm into the upper 70’s and low 80’s…with the record for the date of 82 at IAH. Similar conditions expected on Friday with likely a couple of degrees warmer. Weak cold front will back into the area from the NE early in the weekend with slightly cooler conditions and much more cloud cover for the weekend. Expect highs to lower to near more normal levels in the mid to upper 60’s.

Weak front will begin to return northward late Sunday into Monday while a couple of disturbances aloft move across the region. This will likely result in the best rain chance (still slight) in a long time over the region on Monday. Expecting light amounts of generally less than .50 of an inch and mainly focused over our eastern counties.

Overall generally dry and warm weather to continue into next week. A few longer term indicators suggest a wetter pattern toward the end of the month, but thus far such indicators this winter have not worked out overly well.

[jasons2k]

We need rain.

[srainhoutx]

I'm not seeing much hope in the rainfall department until the last days of February extending into March when the MJO may lead to a more favorable precipitation pattern for our Region. The Afternoon Updated Experimental Week 3 & 4 Outlook explains why we may see some hope on the Horizon. Fingers crossed!

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Prognostic Discussion for Experimental Week 3-4 Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Feb 27 2016-Fri Mar 11 2016

Strong El Nino conditions continue across the equatorial Pacific Ocean with SST anomalies exceeding 2 degrees Celsius across the east-central equatorial Pacific. Enhanced convection has persisted over the central and east-central Pacific. Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies are apparent over much of the tropical Pacific.

The real-time multivariate MJO Index (RMM) indicates the MJO increased in amplitude during the past week and became more organized. Suppressed convection became less widespread across the Maritime Continent and shifted eastward to the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). Forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) show eastward propagation of a coherent signal to the West-Central Pacific. This potential signal will need to be monitored closely for its eventual modification of the pattern of anomalous tropical convection.

These climate conditions and dynamical model guidance from the NCEP CFS, ECMWF and JMA was considered for the week 3-4 outlook along with statistical guidance that emphasizes the MJO, ENSO, and trends.

Dynamical model guidance is generally in good agreement among the CFS, ECMWF and JMA solutions across the Pacific Ocean and depicts anomalous troughing and negative 500-hPa height departures across the North Pacific, and anomalous ridging and positive 500-hPa height departures over Hawaii. Both the ECMWF and JMA ensemble means indicate below-normal 500-hPa height anomalies over the southeast CONUS and above-normal 500-hPa height anomalies over the northwest CONUS, while the CFS favors below-normal 500-hPa height anomalies over the southwest CONUS and above-normal 500-hPa height anomalies over the northeast CONUS.

The Week 3-4 outlook favors above-normal temperatures for Alaska, the northeast and the western half of the CONUS, consistent with the majority of the guidance where model forecast probabilities were the greatest. The largest probabilities are forecast for the west coast where dynamical model guidance and statistical guidance agree. Below-normal temperatures favored for the Southern Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley and parts of the Southeast, consistent with potential MJO evolution and the ECMWF and JMA guidance.

Following ensemble prediction system forecasts from the CFS, ECMWF and JMA, the forecast for the Week 3-4 period favors above-median precipitation for an area stretching from parts of southern California eastward across the Southwest, parts of the Gulf Coast, to the Southeast regions of the CONUS. The highest probabilities extend across the Florida Peninsula. Enhanced chances for below-median precipitation are forecast across the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Great Basin and the Northern Rockies. Anomalous southerly flow favors above median two week total precipitation for the central South coast of Alaska.

Above-normal temperatures are favored for Hawaii, consistent with anomalous ridging and positive 500-hPa height anomalies. El Nino conditions typically increase the chances for dry conditions in Hawaii through the Northern Hemisphere winter, leading to elevated chances for below-average precipitation for Hawaii.

[jcarr]

Keeping everything watered to keep it alive...hope we do not have warm then cold again..plants are confused enough already.

[Katdaddy]

Isolated showers continue to move across SE TX this morning ahead of a front. I picked up 0.07" which is not much but need every drop. 30% chance of thunderstorms this morning before the frontal passage. Not much of a front and it will definitely feel like Spring has arrived this week and into next weekend. Lots of sun and highs in the upper 70s to near 80. Only 5 weeks until the first day of Spring begins on March 20th.

[Cromagnum]

Spring carpooled with winter and then never left us. Winter had to head back north to go back to work,.

[srainhoutx]

Our neighbors to the East across Louisiana and the Northern Gulf Coast may see some severe weather today, so keep an eye on the sky. Looking ahead to next weekend, the models are indicating a pattern that may be a bit more conducive for slightly better rain chances across our Region as a long fetched return flow off the NW Gulf becomes established by late week ahead on another storm system tracking across the Plains and bringing some 'colder air' S into Texas by around a week from today.

[BlueJay]

I haven't quite given up on winter yet.
We'll see...

[BiggieSmalls]

I have....started late and ended early. Very disappointing, once in every 10 years kind of winter for those of us that like it...

[jasons2k]

Managed to get a few drops and that was all. So now we REALLY need rain.

I don't see any freezes on the horizon. So I'm going to go out on a limb and say Spring has sprung and the growing season has started for us. No need to wait until the 'meteorological' spring to start on March 1st, or the 'lunar' spring on 3/20...it's already here folks.

[Cromagnum]

Perfecr recipe for lots of weeds and lots of mosquitoes.

[srainhoutx]

The Weather Prediction Center afternoon Updated QPF for later this weekend/early next week suggests the best chance of rainfall we've seen in a long while. Fingers crossed they are right!

[jasons2k]

I noticed lots of people out on the Waterway enjoying the nice warm weather.

Looks like grillin' weather on Saturday

From the NWS today:

TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEK LOOKS ON TRACK FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. COULD SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S
POTENTIALLY FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN REACHING THE 80S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY THAN THURSDAY. ECMWF SHOWS
850MB TEMPS INCREASING THURSDAY TO AROUND 12-15C AND THEN 16-18C
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. SO WITH THAT SAID...PROBABLY NEED TO FORECAST MID
80S BUT DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE TO FORECAST THAT...YET. IN
CASE YOU ARE WONDERING...RECORD HIGH FOR IAH FOR THURSDAY IS
87F...88F FOR FRIDAY AND 91F FOR SATURDAY WHICH WERE ALL SET IN
1986. THE 91F FOR FEB 20 SATURDAY IS RECORD FOR THE MONTH. SO I DO
NOT THINK WE WILL BREAK RECORD BUT IT DOES SHOW IT CAN WARM UP FOR
THE LAST THIRD OF FEBRUARY

[Cromagnum]

Very tired of seeing smokers too lit cigarettes out of their cars. There was another fire along 288 south of town getting out of hand where someone did that.

[Portastorm]

Just a little post to put this anomalously warm "winter" in perspective ... on average, Austin has 19 days where the temperature goes below freezing. So far this winter season we have had ONE day when we hit 31 degrees.

[srainhoutx]

Looking like we may have the first real shot of some rain in a while Sunday night into Monday as a rather strong shortwave crosses the Plains allowing a fairly good return flow off the Gulf to become established during the weekend before it arrives. A rather strong cold front will sweep through Monday afternoon/evening bringing more very cold air to our N and E. Florida looks to be as cold, if not colder than we will experience here in Texas.

[BiggieSmalls]

Just a little post to put this anomalously warm "winter" in perspective ... on average, Austin has 19 days where the temperature goes below freezing. So far this winter season we have had ONE day when we hit 31 degrees.

Yeah, I don't think DFW has gotten below maybe 27....I don't understand people who are celebrating the "early spring", as if we've had some brutal winter that is finally over.....Its going to be pushing 90 between now and about October, ya know. A solid 8 months. Time to celebrate?

[jasons2k]

Don't tell that to all the people (like me) outside walking/jogging on the Waterway today enjoying and just loving this beautiful 80-degree weather.

Funny how nobody is out there when it's cloudy and cold outside. Gee, I just couldn't imagine why not...

[srainhoutx]

I hit 80F this afternoon. That cement pond in my backyard is calling my name...

[srainhoutx]

Maybe, just maybe the rain mirage via the models are correct. Fingers crossed!