February 2016: Quiet Warm Weather To End The Month

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ticka1
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Or will we continue to see a mild winter and early Spring? :roll:
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srainhoutx
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The Climate Prediction Center Super Ensemble Day 11+ Analogs centered on February 1st suggest many dates that brought a glaze of ice to Houston during February. It serves as a reminder that winter is not over just yet. We still have to get through February before we begin to look forward to Spring and Hurricane Season 2016.
01212016 CPC Day 11+ Super Ensemble Analogs 500hgt_comp_sup814.gif
Graphics comes courtesy of the Weather Research Center at the Houston Weather Museum where we have many followers:

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Weather Research Center 


Houston Ice Storms [1960-2011] 

YEAR DATE REMARKS 
1961 January 25 Freezing Rain/Glazing 
1965 February 24 Glaze 
1968 January 8 Glaze 
1970 January 18-19 Glaze 
1971 January 7-8 Glaze 
1973 January 9-12 Glaze 
1973 February 8-9 Glaze 
1976 November 28-29 Glaze 
1977 January 2  Glaze 
1978 January 21-22 Glaze 
1982 January 12-14 Glaze 
1983 December 22-23 Glaze 
1983 December 26 Glaze 
1985 January 3 Glaze 
1985 January 12-13 Glaze 
1985 January 31 - February 1 Glaze 
1988 February 11 Glaze 
1989 February 4-8 Glaze 
1989 December 22 Glaze 
1990 December 22-23 Glaze 
1994 February 8-9 Glaze 
1997 January 12-14 Glaze 
2007 January 16-17 Freezing Rain/Glaze 
2011 February 4 Freezing Rain/Glaze 

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Portastorm
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Analog-schmanalog! I got flowers and plants blooming here in Austin and they think it's March already. :D

"Winter" has been a no-show here in Austin. I hope that changes soon. We can't even get any rain as El Nino shut off its spigot around Christmas (at least for us).
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srainhoutx
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The morning Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 11+ Super Ensemble Analogs as well as the Teleconnection Indices suggest the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation are relaxing back toward a neutral state. The combination of the negative AO/+PNA/-NAO regime likely assisted in the development of the big East Coast Nor'easter underway today as well as other Hemispheric Patterns. If the Teleconnection Indices issued today are correct, another episode of a negative AO may begin around February 1st +/- a couple of days setting the stage for another Hemispheric Pattern Change. Some of the longer Range guidance are beginning to sniff out changes across our source Regions of Eastern Alaska/NW/Central Canada with much colder temperature departures than we have seen so far this Winter Season. The Madden Julian Oscillation appears to be rather dormant at this time, but may begin another round of a fairly high amplitude orbit once again over the next several days. We will have to see if these Hemispheric Pattern features do indeed usher in another pattern change during the climatological favored Winter Weather period for our Region. Time will tell.
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Portastorm
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Thanks for the upate, srain.

Over the last approximate 120 years, Austin has recorded 51 snowfalls. Some of the largest ones have occurred in February, including the last snowfall of significance (1" or more) which happened on Valentines Day 2004 ... when 1.6" fell on the city.
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srainhoutx
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The overnight Ensembles, Day 11+ Super Ensemble Analogs and the Teleconnection Indices are suggesting we may begin February with a rather significant storm system as a deep Western trough organizes and heights build across Western/Central Alaska. The coldest temperature departures (nearing -15 to -20 anomalies )we have seen this Winter is showing up across NW/Western and Central Canada. That coincides with the Arctic Oscillation returning to a negative regime as well as other indictors becoming a bit more favorable for delivering a cold shot into our Region. The operational models have been flirting with the idea of a big Winter Storm crossing New Mexico, Texas, The Southern/Central Plains and heading toward the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area during that timeframe. We will see if these indicators do indeed verify as we head into he late next week timeframe and get closer to the first days of February.
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01232016 CPC Super Ensemble Day 11+ Analogs 500hgt_comp_sup814.gif
01232016 Tele Indices 4panel.png
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Ptarmigan
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Later winter has some pretty big freezes. February has had big freezes and snow events. The February 1895 snow event and February 1899 freeze come to mind.
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When I was a kid, late January into Feb. used to always seem like the coldest and wettest of the winter. It hasn't been such in recent years, but that's how I remember it in the 60's and 70's.
No rain, no rainbows.
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srainhoutx
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The overnight Ensembles and Teleconnection Indices as well as other Hemispheric Pattern indicators are suggesting the early February timeframe may well be worth monitoring. A rather robust Wave 1 episode at the Stratospheric 10mb level is being indicated by the ECWMF Ensembles. There are rather significant hints that the Polar Vortex will warm rapidly suggesting a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event is well underway and could bring a big shot of cold air into Western/Central Canada in about 7 days. The Ensembles do indicate this cold shot of Arctic air infiltrating the Canadian Prairies as a heights rise rather rapidly over Alaska and the presence of the Aleutian Low is gone. There is also a chance of a big Winter Storm moving out of the Desert SW/Southern Rockies during the first days of February which continues to be rather well advertised by the computer model schemes. In the wake of this storm, some of the coldest air of the season may plunge into the Plains and possibly Texas as it should be dense. We will see if all the indicators are correct and if the warmer temperatures of slightly above normal as January ends begins a cold February for our Region.
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01242016 Euro EPS 240 ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11.png
01242016 CPC Day 11+ Super Ensembles 500hgt_comp_sup814.gif
01242016 Tele Indices 4panel.png
Image Courtesy of Dr. Mike Ventrice via twitter:
01242016 00Z ECMWF 10mb 180 untitled.png
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texoz
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So far at Camp Mabry in Austin we have only had two freezes of 32 and 31 degrees. Hoping for at least one hard freeze for most of central & south Texas toward the end of February to kill off any residual mosquitos.
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srainhoutx
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Interesting pattern IF the 12Z Euro is correct... ;)
01242016 12Z Euro 5H 240.png
01242016 12Z Euro 850 240.png
01242016 MJO ECMWF ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif
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BlueJay
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texoz wrote:So far at Camp Mabry in Austin we have only had two freezes of 32 and 31 degrees. Hoping for at least one hard freeze for most of central & south Texas toward the end of February to kill off any residual mosquitos.

Per the oracle a/k/a the INTERNET:

Mosquitoes hibernate. They are cold-blooded and prefer temperatures over 80 degrees. At temperatures less than 50 degrees, they shut down for the winter. The adult females of some species find holes where they wait for warmer weather, while others lay their eggs in freezing water and die. :geek:
harpman
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srainhoutx wrote:Interesting pattern IF the 12Z Euro is correct... ;)
01242016 12Z Euro 5H 240.png
01242016 12Z Euro 850 240.png
01242016 MJO ECMWF ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

Can you interpret this?
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srainhoutx
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harpman wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:Interesting pattern IF the 12Z Euro is correct..


Can you interpret this?
More tomorrow when I have time and as the weekend nears. Seeing the MJO begin an amplified orbit as it did back in December is worth monitoring.
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December was warm. I hope that's not happening again.
unome
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I found the following via a Twiitter list for NWS Southern Region offices: https://twitter.com/Geostrophic/lists/n ... ern-region

It's from NWS Little Rock & gives an excellent, easy to understand explanation:

their tweet: https://twitter.com/NWSLittleRock/statu ... 1225696260\
their referenced facebook post: https://www.facebook.com/NWSLittleRock/ ... 8868943848
(the accompanying images in the facebook post are easily understood)

US National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas added 2 new photos.

Some of you were asking when the next snow was coming. Well, we can look into the near future (a couple of weeks or so) by glancing at the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). It already sounds complex, but it is not.

In a nutshell, if pressure increases in the northern latitudes (toward the North Pole) and decreases in the mid-latitudes (toward where we live), this tends to disrupt or block the westerlies that normally flow across Canada, and cold air gets bottled up. It has nowhere to go but in this direction, and our temperatures drop. When the pressures are reversed, the blocking is removed and cold air is less likely to come on south.

When the blocking pattern exists, this is the negative phase of the AO/NAO. The phase is positive when the blocking subsides.

Through most of December and the first half of January, the phase was strongly positive, and it felt like spring at times. In mid-January, the phase went negative, and look what happened. Not only did it feel a whole lot more like winter, it snowed (and iced).

From now into early February, the AO/NAO look more positive/less negative, and winter should take a break. Temperature outlooks through the first week in February are learning toward above normal readings in most areas east of the Rockies.

So, when is the next big snow coming? It looks like it could be awhile.
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srainhoutx
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The overnight ensemble guidance is indicating a rather potent Winter Storm developing around February 1st across the Desert SW/Southern/Central Rockies with a rather vigorous Western trough replacing the zonal split flow that we will experience later this week, Leeside cyclogenesis or a potent surface low is suggested by the ensembles to head NE toward the Great Lakes dumping copious amounts of snow across the Plains. This storm system sends a strong cold front across Texas into NE Mexico and the Gulf around the 2nd/3rd of February. The Ensembles as well as the Teleconnection Indices also suggest that the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation could relax back toward a negative regime. We will need to monitor the Stratospheric Warming across the Polar Region in the coming days and see if it is capable of delivery a strong shot of cold Arctic air into North America. The ensembles are indicating that possibility and the is a full fledged Arctic Outbreak is occuring now across Western Eurasia/China and the Korean Peninsula. Also noteworthy is the MJO indicators are suggesting after this brief pause of inactivity, an amplified orbit around Phases 4/5/6/7 takes place suggesting that colder anomalies may be possible across our Region around the 8th/10th of February, +/- a couple of days with a possible 'wet phase' of the MJO developing across the Eastern Pacific/Western Hemisphere after the colder regime is established.
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01252016 00Z Euro EPS 216 ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_10.png
01252016 06Z GEFS 210 gfs-ens_z500a_namer_36.png
01252016 AO ao_sprd2.gif
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DoctorMu
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harpman wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:Interesting pattern IF the 12Z Euro is correct... ;)
01242016 12Z Euro 5H 240.png
01242016 12Z Euro 850 240.png
01242016 MJO ECMWF ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

Can you interpret this?
kill me now.
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DoctorMu
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srainhoutx wrote:The overnight ensemble guidance is indicating a rather potent Winter Storm developing around February 1st across the Desert SW/Southern/Central Rockies with a rather vigorous Western trough replacing the zonal split flow that we will experience later this week, Leeside cyclogenesis or a potent surface low is suggested by the ensembles to head NE toward the Great Lakes dumping copious amounts of snow across the Plains. This storm system sends a strong cold front across Texas into NE Mexico and the Gulf around the 2nd/3rd of February. The Ensembles as well as the Teleconnection Indices also suggest that the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation could relax back toward a negative regime. We will need to monitor the Stratospheric Warming across the Polar Region in the coming days and see if it is capable of delivery a strong shot of cold Arctic air into North America. The ensembles are indicating that possibility and the is a full fledged Arctic Outbreak is occuring now across Western Eurasia/China and the Korean Peninsula. Also noteworthy is the MJO indicators are suggesting after this brief pause of inactivity, an amplified orbit around Phases 4/5/6/7 takes place suggesting that colder anomalies may be possible across our Region around the 8th/10th of February, +/- a couple of days with a possible 'wet phase' of the MJO developing across the Eastern Pacific/Western Hemisphere after the colder regime is established.
01252016 00Z Euro EPS 216 ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_10.png
01252016 06Z GEFS 210 gfs-ens_z500a_namer_36.png
01252016 AO ao_sprd2.gif
01252016 Tele Indices 4panel.png
We've been teased by Winter's MoJO before...but it's pretty typical after a mild January to have a few intensive cold snaps in Feb. While we haven't had a hard freeze in CLL, it hasn't been significantly warmer than average overall...and oddly dry.

Still this has been mostly a Waiting for Godot flip to the expected El Nino cool/cold high precipitation/wintry mischief mode expected.

The Fat Lady hasn't sung yet, but she's been sitting on us far too long!
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I'm not seeing any major pattern shift (next few weeks) to indicate any significant cold (sub-28F temps) across the Houston area. Though I had thought that with such a strong El Nino and an active southern storm track that we'd have a good chance of winter precip, it just doesn't look like we'll have cold enough air for that to materialize. Cold rain, perhaps, but not snow.

By the way, though temps averaged about 5F warmer than normal in December, they currently stand at 2.3F below normal for January. It's the cool highs that have brought the average down.
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