October 2016- More Cool Weather?

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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srainhoutx
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Pre frontal trough is nearing the Northern areas at this time and the cold front is progressing nicely across the Central portion of the State. We should have a great weather weekend with much drier and cooler air, so get out and enjoy!
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tireman4
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Alluding to Srain's assessment, the HGX office agrees...:)

000
FXUS64 KHGX 200941
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
441 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...
04Z surface analysis has the main cold front located roughly
along a Presidio to San Angelo to Wichita Falls line. A ragged
line of convection forming just ahead of this boundary, the type
of broken line convection that can be expected to reach our
northern reaches by the late morning hours. Although there will
be some error with the overall evolution (or timing) concerning
today`s frontal passage (e.g., mid to upper flow becoming more
parallel with surface front, location of the leading pre-frontal
trough), the main cold front will likely come through between the
mid to late morning hours up north and be off the coast by the
late afternoon. Precipitation coverage will consist of scattered
showers with isolated storm cells forming just downstream of the
approaching front north of the city, more coastal counties and
local water discrete cells moving north as they are caught up
within the onshore (in)flow pattern. In summary, due to the
progressive nature of this fropa, most have a high probability of
receiving under a half of an inch of precipitation, those closer
to the coast will pick up between a half of an inch and an inch of
rain. Today`s two main threats will be locally dense morning fog
impacting the rush hour with, if a poorly formed QLCS does push
south across the area, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts within the
strongest, better organized cell clusters.

Cold and dry air advection reaching the local waters in the wake
of today`s front will likely hoist evening through Friday morning
Wind Advisory flags to account for greater than 20 knot sustained
northerly winds. Convection along and ahead of the front will
quickly transition to the far offshore Gulf waters during the
early evening hours. The backing cool and dry air mass will
finally introduce Autumn to area, albeit a month late! Pristine
weather both Friday and Saturday; clear skies and weakening
veering easterlies as cool mornings in the 40/50s warm into the
70s/low 80s. As early week upper ridging moves east of the state,
lowering western Plains surface pressure will swing winds back
onshore by Sunday, ushering in slightly higher moisture through
the final week of the month. Primarily early week mid-high level
clouds and a subsequent day slightly above normal diurnal temperature
curve; low to mid 60 minimum temperatures that will warm into the
early afternoon mid to upper 80s through Tuesday. A flattened
South Plains ridge/near zonal flow pattern will suppress much in
the way of rain and keep mid to late week conditions partially
cloudy and still unseasonably warm (upper 60/lower 70 mins - near
90 F maxs) under a persistent onshore fetch. Slight rain probabilities
will exist over the maritime with weak lobes of southwestern-based
positive vorticity advection (PVA) passing through and possibly
increasing late period widely scattered -TSRA, a pattern similar
to yesterday`s areal coverage. 31

&&

.MARINE...
Prefrontal trof will push off the coast today with light offshore
flow then prevailing thru most of the afternoon. Speeds start
increasing toward evening...and much more substantially shortly after
sunset as the front itself and cooler airmass arrives. Small craft
advisory will be required overnight into parts of Friday w/20-25G30kt
winds and seas building to 7-9 ft offshore. Winds/seas begin settling
down Fri night and gradually veer to the SE late Saturday as high
pressure moves eastward. Onshore flow will then persist well into
next week. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
Variety of wx across the region this morning ranging from some
shra/tstms near the coast, dense fog west of the metro area to VFR
conditions elsewhere. Think most areas will trend back toward VFR
territory toward mid morning. Exception might be in/around any
convection that develops ahead of prefrontal trof & cold front that`ll
be moving thru SE Tx during the day. With the exception of the coast,
winds will shift to the north in the morning but an increase in speeds
will lag until the actual front crosses the area later in the day.
Clear skies are expected tonight with strong NNE winds near KGLS. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 80 52 79 51 79 / 50 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 85 55 78 52 80 / 40 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 84 66 77 64 77 / 50 10 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...31/47
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tireman4
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jasons2k
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Broken line = it will surely miss my house. Just sayin'
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Latest HGX update...


828
FXUS64 KHGX 201719
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1219 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers will move through pretty much all terminals
except KCLL throughout this afternoon as a cold front continues to
push southeastward through SE TX. Showers should diminish later
this evening, with northerly to northeasterly winds becoming
quite gusty behind the front. Winds will weaken somewhat across
inland areas overnight tonight but will remain gusty at KLBX and
KGLS through tomorrow. 11
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jasons2k
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radar looks promising - dare I say it. Fingers crossed...
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Pouring in the Clear Lake area...
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jasons2k
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Missed me! Not a drop! Perennial drought continues.
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Nice shower here in Richmond.
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jasons wrote:Missed me! Not a drop! Perennial drought continues.
You must've signed up for the 4 times per year rain plan. Just don't turn into a worry wart.
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Looks like the cooler air is around Waco right now. Should be here between 9pm and midnight. It should be a cooler morning with temps in the upper 50s/lower 60s to wake up tomorrow.
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Did the cfront stall out? Originally it was supposed to blow through this morning, bilut it still sucks outside.
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srainhoutx
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Nice cool Northerly breezes filtering across NW Harris County. The front passed a couple of hours ago. Time to open the windows and let the drier and cooler air in.
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Katdaddy
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A very nice Fall morning with temps in the upper 50s to low 60s and gusty N winds along the coastal areas.

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
438 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2016

.STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL BE DECREASING
OVER THE BAYS THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

* SEAS...5 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS...
AND/OR SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED BOATERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.
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Katdaddy
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A beautiful Fall morning with temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s with low 60s along the immediate cost. Enjoy!
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srainhoutx
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Recorded a chilly 47F at the house this morning. Hopefully we have seen the last of those 90's for highs until next Spring. Enjoy the nice Autumn Weather!
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Katdaddy
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An upper level disturbance passing across TX could bring a few sprinkles today. Mostly sunny and warm temps through the week. Some area will see highs near 90F by then end of the weekend and next weekend thanks to a building ridge of high pressure from MX.
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Looks like I will close out October with 0.17" of rain.
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tireman4
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HGX AFD:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 240850
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
350 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Shortwave currently moving thru cntl Tx will make its way eastward
across SE Tx today. There are a few observation sites reporting
-ra where the highest reflectivities are located, but vast
majority is in the form of virga complements of dry llvls. Expect
the same locally. Otherwise just some mid/high level clouds and
daytime highs in the 80s.

Should see a trof move eastward from the Rockies into the plains
and midwest Tue and Wed. It should be a non-factor in our local
wx, but ridge will expand north and eastward out of Mexico and
into Tx in its wake. This ridge should be the dominant player in
area wx (or lack thereof) from midweek thru the weekend by
limiting overall rain chances. 47

&&

.MARINE...
With high pressure lingering just to our east, we should continue to
see generally light (to occasionally moderate) east (to occasionally
southeast) winds across the coastal waters the next several days. No
flags are anticipated. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
Radar indicating light echoes moving in from the SW across the north-
ern portions of the CWFA this morning, but not seeing a lot of signs
that any significant precipitation is making it to the ground so far
this morning. However may include a brief VCSH for CLL for this morn-
ing with the 12Z package. Otherwise not a lot of changes for the aft-
ernoon as VFR conditions prevail. Progs of a more easterly low-level
flow these next few days could keep dewpoints from climbing too much
and perhaps limit the development of patchy BR/lower CIGS during the
overnight hours. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 63 82 63 84 / 20 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 84 61 83 62 85 / 10 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 82 71 82 72 82 / 10 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$
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