October 2016- More Cool Weather?

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Andrew
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Heading into October, cooler conditions looks to persist until late into the weekend before onshore flow returns and so do moisture & temps. What has my attention is another cool/cold front reaching the gulf coast towards the end of the first full week of October. GFS is very aggressive (and for the most part consistent) on a trough digging very far south across the central United States before lifting out. ECMWF on the other hand is a lot more zonal and has ridging developing over the region, keeping temperatures above average. Still not much support from the ensembles but something to keep an eye on as we head into October.
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DoctorMu
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Both the Euro and GFS now have something trough next Thursday. GFS in fantasyland has a Canadian front barreling through in the 12, although the brunt appears to be in east Texas (lows in 40s) and points east (30s from Shreveport through Atlanta to Greenville, SC).
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srainhoutx
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The Saturday 12Z GFS suggests another early season cold front arriving late next workweek dropping temperatures back into the 50's and possibly only seeing high temperatures in the upper 60's/low 70's next Saturday.
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Andrew
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srainhoutx wrote:The Saturday 12Z GFS suggests another early season cold front arriving late next workweek dropping temperatures back into the 50's and possibly only seeing high temperatures in the upper 60's/low 70's next Saturday.

GFS has been very persistent with this idea as of late but the ECMWF has been stalling the front over northern Texas. Interesting to me that the ECMWF has a done a bad job lately at properly handling a lot of the synoptic setups.
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Katdaddy
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A beautiful Upper TX Coast sunset with a small patch of altocumulus clouds that moved over the yard this evening. Increasing heat, humidity, and scattered showers this week across SE TX but the 5-day forecast has another cold front arriving Friday evening bringing highs in the upper 70s and low 80s with low in the 50s for next weekend.
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Katdaddy
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A warm mostly sunny day across SE TX with increasing moisture. A few showers offshore this morning. The cold front is still set to arrive Friday afternoon.
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jasons2k
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They have been slowly lowering rain chances this week. Looks mostly dry....need rain badly.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 041509
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1009 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Made few adjustments to forecast this morning based on satellite
and radar trends which show few clouds at this point inland with a
fair amount of clouds and a few showers offshore. Would expect
cumulus field to develop over next few hours with scattered
showers near the coast. Cant rule out a few rumbles of thunder
this afternoon as well with peak heating. Visible image showing
towering cumulus developing in a coast parallel band over
Brazoria...Galveston and Chambers County. Radar showing hint of
first shower development within that band which should lift inland
through the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
Radar shows scattered showers in the Gulf of Mexico. These
showers could spread inland later today and this afternoon but
overall confidence is low. Moisture will be pushing back into the
area but may be slower to do so. Convective allowing model trends
do not show much convection developing. TAFs are left with no
mention of showers or thunderstorms with the idea that TAFs can be
amended if activity develops inland.

Patchy fog has be affecting a few areas from KCXO to a few
surrounding rural areas. Any fog this morning should be short
lived as winds should increase from the SE and allow for mixing
this morning. With moisture returning there will also be the
chance of MVFR CIGS developing mainly for KCXO/KUTS/KCLL tomorrow
morning with scattered low ceilings to the south.


.DISCUSSION...
A look at the upper air pattern forecast to be over SE Texas this
week can help paint the picture of what will occur with rain
chances and temperatures. The upper ridge that has been over the
area will continue to flatten today as an upper trough moves
across the plains. A southwesterly upper level flow will then
develop overhead on Wednesday and Thursday before a weak upper
level ridge builds overhead from the southwest late in the week.
The building ridge will then help provide a more favorable upper
level flow which will in turn help a cold front push across SE
Texas on Friday.

The airmass will moisten today through Friday ahead of the front.
However, the southwesterly flow aloft will be a major factor in
keeping the rain chances on the low side. This can be seen in the
model forecast soundings where the best chances for isolated
showers will be mainly over the coastal and southeastern areas
today and a bit more area wide on Wednesday and Thursday. The
building ridge will then help suppress the rain chances further
on Friday even with the frontal boundary moving into the area. The
front in turn will make its way through the area late on Friday.
Because of the negative factors, agreed with the model consensus
to go with mainly isolated rain chances for most locations through
Thursday and only in the west and north during the day on Friday.

The drier airmass behind the front will help usher in pleasant
weather conditions over the upcoming holiday weekend. Some
modification of the airmass will help with a warming trend
beginning on Columbus Day.

40

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate east winds will continue today with moderate seas in
offshore waters. Seas should subside some as higher periods swells
of 1-2 feet dampen. It is possible for some higher period swells to
affect the Upper Texas coast later in the week which may elevate
seas. These swells will be traveling across the Gulf from the
Caribbean where they were generated by Hurricane Matthew.

The other concern will be a cold front pushing off the Upper Texas
coast for the end of the week. Models are still trying to pinpoint
frontal passage. The GFS seems to be a good compromise between the
slower ECMWF and faster Canadian. Winds should shift to the N/NE
behind the front for Saturday. This should allow for higher seas and
likely need small craft exercise caution.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 72 91 72 90 / 10 10 20 10 20
Houston (IAH) 89 74 90 73 90 / 20 10 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 86 79 88 79 87 / 20 20 20 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39
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DoctorMu
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jasons wrote:They have been slowly lowering rain chances this week. Looks mostly dry....need rain badly.
I hear ya. This 10 year drought pattern is attempting to re-establish itself. After being drowned with nearly 10 in of rain in 10 days in mid August, I don't think we've totaled much more than an inch. Slight chance later this week, but I've had to re-engage the sprinklers...something I'm averse to during brown patch season. Sprang for and laid down some pricey fungicide, and now water only during the day. Sulfur pellets down as well for grass and trees. High Na+ water in CLL should be only an adjuvant, not the main source of hydration.

Lawn & Garden or farming in south central Texas. It's not for the faint of heart!
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BiggieSmalls
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Cold front appears to be getting a weaker and weaker projection as we get closer to it.....
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