October 2016- More Cool Weather?

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Andrew
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Heading into October, cooler conditions looks to persist until late into the weekend before onshore flow returns and so do moisture & temps. What has my attention is another cool/cold front reaching the gulf coast towards the end of the first full week of October. GFS is very aggressive (and for the most part consistent) on a trough digging very far south across the central United States before lifting out. ECMWF on the other hand is a lot more zonal and has ridging developing over the region, keeping temperatures above average. Still not much support from the ensembles but something to keep an eye on as we head into October.
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DoctorMu
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Both the Euro and GFS now have something trough next Thursday. GFS in fantasyland has a Canadian front barreling through in the 12, although the brunt appears to be in east Texas (lows in 40s) and points east (30s from Shreveport through Atlanta to Greenville, SC).
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srainhoutx
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The Saturday 12Z GFS suggests another early season cold front arriving late next workweek dropping temperatures back into the 50's and possibly only seeing high temperatures in the upper 60's/low 70's next Saturday.
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Andrew
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srainhoutx wrote:The Saturday 12Z GFS suggests another early season cold front arriving late next workweek dropping temperatures back into the 50's and possibly only seeing high temperatures in the upper 60's/low 70's next Saturday.

GFS has been very persistent with this idea as of late but the ECMWF has been stalling the front over northern Texas. Interesting to me that the ECMWF has a done a bad job lately at properly handling a lot of the synoptic setups.
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Katdaddy
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A beautiful Upper TX Coast sunset with a small patch of altocumulus clouds that moved over the yard this evening. Increasing heat, humidity, and scattered showers this week across SE TX but the 5-day forecast has another cold front arriving Friday evening bringing highs in the upper 70s and low 80s with low in the 50s for next weekend.
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Katdaddy
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A warm mostly sunny day across SE TX with increasing moisture. A few showers offshore this morning. The cold front is still set to arrive Friday afternoon.
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jasons2k
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They have been slowly lowering rain chances this week. Looks mostly dry....need rain badly.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 041509
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1009 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Made few adjustments to forecast this morning based on satellite
and radar trends which show few clouds at this point inland with a
fair amount of clouds and a few showers offshore. Would expect
cumulus field to develop over next few hours with scattered
showers near the coast. Cant rule out a few rumbles of thunder
this afternoon as well with peak heating. Visible image showing
towering cumulus developing in a coast parallel band over
Brazoria...Galveston and Chambers County. Radar showing hint of
first shower development within that band which should lift inland
through the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
Radar shows scattered showers in the Gulf of Mexico. These
showers could spread inland later today and this afternoon but
overall confidence is low. Moisture will be pushing back into the
area but may be slower to do so. Convective allowing model trends
do not show much convection developing. TAFs are left with no
mention of showers or thunderstorms with the idea that TAFs can be
amended if activity develops inland.

Patchy fog has be affecting a few areas from KCXO to a few
surrounding rural areas. Any fog this morning should be short
lived as winds should increase from the SE and allow for mixing
this morning. With moisture returning there will also be the
chance of MVFR CIGS developing mainly for KCXO/KUTS/KCLL tomorrow
morning with scattered low ceilings to the south.


.DISCUSSION...
A look at the upper air pattern forecast to be over SE Texas this
week can help paint the picture of what will occur with rain
chances and temperatures. The upper ridge that has been over the
area will continue to flatten today as an upper trough moves
across the plains. A southwesterly upper level flow will then
develop overhead on Wednesday and Thursday before a weak upper
level ridge builds overhead from the southwest late in the week.
The building ridge will then help provide a more favorable upper
level flow which will in turn help a cold front push across SE
Texas on Friday.

The airmass will moisten today through Friday ahead of the front.
However, the southwesterly flow aloft will be a major factor in
keeping the rain chances on the low side. This can be seen in the
model forecast soundings where the best chances for isolated
showers will be mainly over the coastal and southeastern areas
today and a bit more area wide on Wednesday and Thursday. The
building ridge will then help suppress the rain chances further
on Friday even with the frontal boundary moving into the area. The
front in turn will make its way through the area late on Friday.
Because of the negative factors, agreed with the model consensus
to go with mainly isolated rain chances for most locations through
Thursday and only in the west and north during the day on Friday.

The drier airmass behind the front will help usher in pleasant
weather conditions over the upcoming holiday weekend. Some
modification of the airmass will help with a warming trend
beginning on Columbus Day.

40

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate east winds will continue today with moderate seas in
offshore waters. Seas should subside some as higher periods swells
of 1-2 feet dampen. It is possible for some higher period swells to
affect the Upper Texas coast later in the week which may elevate
seas. These swells will be traveling across the Gulf from the
Caribbean where they were generated by Hurricane Matthew.

The other concern will be a cold front pushing off the Upper Texas
coast for the end of the week. Models are still trying to pinpoint
frontal passage. The GFS seems to be a good compromise between the
slower ECMWF and faster Canadian. Winds should shift to the N/NE
behind the front for Saturday. This should allow for higher seas and
likely need small craft exercise caution.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 72 91 72 90 / 10 10 20 10 20
Houston (IAH) 89 74 90 73 90 / 20 10 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 86 79 88 79 87 / 20 20 20 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39
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DoctorMu
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jasons wrote:They have been slowly lowering rain chances this week. Looks mostly dry....need rain badly.
I hear ya. This 10 year drought pattern is attempting to re-establish itself. After being drowned with nearly 10 in of rain in 10 days in mid August, I don't think we've totaled much more than an inch. Slight chance later this week, but I've had to re-engage the sprinklers...something I'm averse to during brown patch season. Sprang for and laid down some pricey fungicide, and now water only during the day. Sulfur pellets down as well for grass and trees. High Na+ water in CLL should be only an adjuvant, not the main source of hydration.

Lawn & Garden or farming in south central Texas. It's not for the faint of heart!
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BiggieSmalls
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Cold front appears to be getting a weaker and weaker projection as we get closer to it.....
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tireman4
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Well, it is potent enough to knock our highs down to the low to mid 80's....


000
FXUS64 KHGX 051202
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
702 AM CDT Wed Oct 5 2016

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
KIAH/KHOU/KSGR/KLBX/KGLS...Main concerns this morning will be a
few passing showers with most of these areas on the edge of
MVFR/IFR CIGS to the north. Deep moisture from the Gulf should
develop over SE TX to allow for showers to develop. For now think
any TSRA will be isolated and will amend TAF accordingly as
conditions warrant. MVFR CIGS will be possible tomorrow morning
but think model guidance is too aggressive with IFR CIGS. TAFs
will at least mention scattered cloud decks but keep VFR.

KCLL/KUTS/KCXO...Mix of MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS this morning as
combination of low stratus and fog develop. Think these conditions
will persist the next 2-3 hrs before winds begin to mix boundary
layer. With deep moisture from the Gulf developing over the area,
think there will be a small chance of a few showers for KCXO/KUTS
but shower activity likely stay east of KCLL. It will be possible
for an isolated TSRA but not confident enough to mention in TAFs
so will amend as necessary. Conditions look favorable for more
IFR/MVFR CIGS tomorrow morning so will mention at least MVFR
ceilings.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...
Diffluent upper flow today over Southeast Texas will give way to a
building upper ridge by Friday as an upper trough over the northern
plains moves into the Great Lakes. As the upper ridge begins to build
overhead, a cold front will move across Southeast Texas late Friday
and off the coast by early Saturday morning. A model consensus shows
a stronger ridge in place overhead through the weekend and into
Monday. By Wednesday of next week a mainly dry shortwave trough will
dig southward into Texas as it moves across the Southern Plains.

40

SHORT TERM...
Surface analysis this morning shows a frontal boundary across the
plains with weak low pressure over SW Oklahoma. High pressure
stretched from the NE U.S. through the Appalachians and SE U.S. into
Texas. This has allowed for mainly southeast winds across the region
with low level moisture returning to the area. Area radar show a few
showers off the Sabine Pass and the adjacent coastal waters of the
Gulf. Showers continue to develop off the Upper Texas Coast and may
push inland later this morning. IR satellite imagery shows some
cloud cover expanding over the area and causing MVFR/IFR CIGS to
develop at a few of the area terminals such as KCXO/KUTS. Upper
level analysis shows a broad trough over the western two thirds of
the U.S. or basically west of the Mississippi River. Two upper lows
were over the N Plains and the Pacific NW.

Today and tonight the upper low over the N Plains should rotate into
Canada while the Pacific NW system drops into the C Rockies. This
will continue to allow for southerly low level flow off the Gulf and
support shower activity today across SE Texas. SPC Mesoanalysis has
a plume of higher precipitable water values over the Gulf and this
should spread over the region today. The forecast will keep mainly
20 PoPs but there could be some pockets of higher rain chances
depending upon if any convection clusters together. High
temperatures today should again reach around 89-91F and head back to
low temperatures in the low 70s again tomorrow.

Overpeck

LONG TERM...
Main issues are temperatures and rain chances. Model consensus
still have POPS on the low side with best chances Thursday
afternoon. The models show the best moisture axis over the western
half of the forecast area on Thursday morning drying out as it moves
westward Thursday afternoon. The frontal passage looks dry as
subsidence will begin early on Friday from the building upper level
ridge. A drier airmass will the persist overhead through the first of
next week.

Daytime highs near 90 will be common again today and Thursday.
Subsidence from the upper level high pressure ridge will help
overcome the cooler air behind the front and may keep temperatures
slightly warmer than currently forecasted over the weekend. Still
expecting seasonably cooler than normal highs for most locations for
the start of the new week on Sunday. As the upper level shortwave
trough moves toward the state, a warmup should begin on Tuesday with
daytime highs warming to near or above normal.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 73 91 69 89 / 20 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 91 74 91 70 92 / 20 10 20 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 88 78 87 77 89 / 20 10 20 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation...39
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DoctorMu
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Looks high and dry for the forseeable future.


Where's the subtropical jet when you need it?
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tireman4
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.SYNOPSIS...
Early this morning the surface front which is expected to affect
Southeast Texas later this week was located over northern Oklahoma. A
surface ridge of high pressure extended from the Mid Atlantic Region
into Southeast Texas. A low-level southeasterly flow was located over
the area from the surface up through 700 mb.

40

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Surface observations at 08Z showed temps mainly in the 70s and
dewpoint temps in the low 70s. Surface analysis at 08Z had a weak
surface trough along the High Plains with weak ridging stretching
along the Appalachians and Gulf coast. Pressure gradient supports SE
winds which is helping to maintain increased Gulf moisture.
Precipitable water analysis from SPC shows mainly 1.7 inches of PW
and 00Z sounding from LCH shows 1.8 inches. Area radar show widely
scattered showers over the coastal waters of the Upper Texas Coast.
These showers are starting to push inland affecting the coastal
areas this morning.

Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show a broad trough
over the western U.S. through the Midwest with an upper low over the
Canadian Prairies. Shortwave trough now moving through the Four
Corners region should reach the Plains this afternoon and night.

Deep moisture should become more established over SE Texas west of I-
45 today and where shower activity should become more numerous. A
few thunderstorms will be possible as well but will be pulse type
storms. PoPs of 20 to 30 percent look on track for the forecast and
will maintain that thinking. Plume of higher moisture should
continue to slide west towards central Texas tonight into Friday.
Overall drier air will push into the area on Friday ahead of the
cold front due to boundary layer flow becoming more NE in response
to the pressure gradient changing with Hurricane Matthew moving
along the Atlantic coast of Florida.

Overpeck

&&

.LONG TERM...
Still a model consensus for the surface front to be pretty much rain
free as it moves through Southeast Texas late on Friday and off the
coast sometime late Friday evening or sometime shortly after
midnight. A drier airmass will move into the area behind the front;
however, an upper level high pressure area will build overhead and
help to keep the daytime temperatures from falling any lower than the
mid 80s on Saturday and Sunday. This upper level ridge will persist
over Southeast Texas through the first half of next week but may be
nudged southward on Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper level shortwave
moves across the Southern Plains. This pattern will help daytime
highs to slowly warm back into the upper 80s by Tuesday and
Wednesday.

40

&&

.MARINE...
Generally moderate southeast winds are expected today along the
Texas Gulf Coast, but these winds become northeast on Friday ahead
of a cold front. The front should slide off the coast Friday night
and Saturday. Winds increase to 15 to 20 knots behind the front
Saturday into Sunday which will help build seas in offshore areas.
Small craft exercise caution will likely be needed for Saturday into
Sunday morning. Winds should then decrease Monday and become
easterly. Seas will drop back to low levels.

Overpeck

&&

.TROPICAL...
As of 830Z IR satellite imagery Hurricane Matthew looks well
organized. Latest Air Force Recon has reported pressure falls down
to 945 mb and higher flight level/SFMR winds which would be
consistent with a more robust eye-wall structure seen in satellite
imagery. Matthew is well on its way to more intensification as it
tracks through the Bahamas. Hurricane Matthew will continue on a
NW/NNW track towards the Atlantic Florida coast. Latest guidance
looks good for a track parallel to the Florida coast and then curving
just off the South Carolina coast. The latest 00Z GFS continues a
trend to loop Matthew back towards Florida but it becomes sheared
apart while doing so. The ECMWF has a similar track but maintains
mid/low level vortex. Hurricane Matthew will continue to test the
limits of tropical forecasting both in track and in intensity.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 69 90 65 86 / 30 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 90 71 92 66 89 / 20 10 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 86 76 88 74 86 / 20 10 0 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
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jasons2k
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No rain in weeks - no rain on the horizon - the 10-year drought continues in earnest. I'm glad most folks across SE Texas got a reprieve over the last year or so...
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jasons2k
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Sad when out towards San Angelo, Del Rio, Abilene areas get rain and we don't get squat. Just isn't right - smh...
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srainhoutx
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No rain in sight, but cooler/drier air has arrived for the weekend into early Monday. Low temperatures Monday morning may flirt with the upper 40's/low 50's N of I-10.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Katdaddy
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Refreshing weather continues inland after this morning's cold front but also brought a pressure gradient offshore leading to gusty winds.

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
348 PM CDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT...

.THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH BEHIND
SATURDAY MORNINGS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO MAINTAIN MODERATE
NORTHERLIES.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-091200-
/O.CON.KHGX.SC.Y.0050.161009T0000Z-161009T1200Z/
MATAGORDA BAY-GALVESTON BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
348 PM CDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS...SUSTAINED 20 TO 25 KNOTS...GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.

* SEAS...4 TO NEAR 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS...
AND/OR SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED BOATERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.
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need a little rain
A.V.

Honestly, I don't mind prolonged dryness from the October-April period; in fact, I wouldn't complain if Dec-Feb all were desert dry, with nothing but sunshine. As long as the summer/warm season is wet, the rest of the year doesn't matter.
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A.V. wrote:Honestly, I don't mind prolonged dryness from the October-April period; in fact, I wouldn't complain if Dec-Feb all were desert dry, with nothing but sunshine. As long as the summer/warm season is wet, the rest of the year doesn't matter.
Badly need some rain though, especially as folks try to get some winterization and premergents into their lawns.
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