April 2017 - MS 150 Forecast This Weekend

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Post Reply
ticka1
Posts: 1265
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:02 pm
Location: Baytown/Mont Belvieu
Contact:

New topic for upcoming april weather!!!
Last edited by ticka1 on Sun Mar 26, 2017 6:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Rip76
Posts: 1787
Joined: Mon Feb 15, 2010 12:38 am
Location: The Woodlands
Contact:

I may eat crow on this, but I'm betting it's a rainy April.
User avatar
wxman57
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2621
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:34 am
Location: Southwest Houston (Westbury)
Contact:

This year, it was January showers that brought February flowers. My azaleas bloomed in February!
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

The various computer schemes suggest another potent storm system will impact our Region this Sunday into Monday. The fly in the ointment is a potential Coastal Low moving in tandem with a vigorous upper trough. Such a scenario suggests heavy training rainfall as well as additional severe thunderstorms.
Attachments
day5prob (4).gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
mcheer23
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 530
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:15 am
Location: Missouri City/ Sugar Land
Contact:

Who is ready for the action on Sunday?
BlueJay
Posts: 938
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:47 am
Location: Alden Bridge-The Woodlands, Texas
Contact:

I'm not sure if I'm ready for the action on Sunday but we got left out in the rain department today, so we could use a dab or two of rain.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Updated the thread title to cover the weekend heavy rainfall and potential stormy weather event. The next in a series of potent upper air disturbances is moving onshore along the Pacific Coast and is expected to arrive across West Texas on Saturday. There are still some uncertainties as to exactly how this storm system will impact the Region, but heavy rainfall and potentially strong to severe storms associated with a Mesoscale Convective System appears somewhat likely.

Image
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
don
Posts: 2576
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

GFS may be trending wetter again,12z Gfs shows a decent amount of rain over the county (2-4 inches) compared to the last few runs which showed only 1-2 inches over the area. fwiw
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

2+ inches of rain in the Houston area per GPS Sunday into Monday.


Image
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Friday morning briefing from Jeff:

Extremely active weather expected Sunday

All severe weather modes (tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds) along with flooding rainfall possible.

Powerful upper level storm system responsible for the damaging winds across Las Vegas on Thursday will approach and then cross TX this weekend result in widespread impacts over the region. Gulf moisture begins to return in earnest later today into Saturday as the upper level low over the four corners advances into NM and then N MX. Lift begins to spread across TX late Saturday and some models try and develop strong to severe thunderstorms over the SW parts of SE TX late Saturday afternoon into the evening hours. Strong lift, very high moisture levels, and good wind energy come to bear over the region on Sunday…which is looking to very much to be a significant weather day.

While details remain low confidence at this time range factors look in place for excessive rainfall over SE TX along with a potential good severe weather threat. Warm sector air mass appears uncapped and charged with instability from roughly the very early morning hours on Sunday into Sunday evening. Potential for supercells to evolve in the warm sector air mass with latest SPC outlook suggest significant tornado parameters will be in place Sunday morning. This appears to be in response to a warm front lifting across the area early Sunday and warm fronts historically like to host tornadic supercells.

Heavy Rainfall/Flooding:

Factors certainly look to be in place for a very wet Sunday with PWS surging to 1.8 inches over the area and at least one or two boundaries in place to help focus training excessive rainfall. First boundary will be a northward advancing warm front Sunday morning with the next being an incoming surface front from W TX. Both have produced flash flood setups over SE TX before with a very deep trough approaching from the west and good upper air venting of an extremely moist surface layer with dewpoints near 70. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches will be possible with much higher totals where any sustained cell training develops. Latest WPC outlook has areas north of I-10 already outlooked for excessive rainfall and exceedance of flash flood guidance for Sunday. Moisture profiles would certainly support excessive rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour.

Severe Threat:

Severe weather parameters look favorable on Sunday and potentially the highest parameters we have seen yet this winter/spring. Low level jet increases overnight Saturday into Sunday with mid level winds increasing and veering with height helping to produce good speed and directional shear over the area. Low level shear values really ramp up early Sunday morning likely due to warm front over the region and the period from about 400am-noon Sunday may feature the highest tornado risk. CAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg over the region suggest good instability across the northward advancing warm sector and will favor intense updrafts and threat for large damaging hail and strong winds into the afternoon hours on Sunday. The tornado risk may decrease some Sunday afternoon as strong forcing along and ahead of the advancing surface front favors more of a squall line.

Confidence:

Since this event is still about 2 days away exact locations of boundaries and fully realized parameters are still in flux for Sunday. Such uncertainties result in low to moderate confidence on where exactly the heaviest rains will fall and what severe mode and when is most likely. Better confidence will hopefully arrive over the next 24 hours. For example the GFS model QPF for BUSH IAH in the last two runs has varied from 4.58 inches to 2.07 inches.

***Have a way to receive weather warnings on Sunday. Make sure WEA (wireless emergency alerts) are “on” on your cell phone…this will tone your phone if a warning is issued for your location or you drive into a warning polygon***



SPC Day 3 (Sunday) Severe Weather Outlook:
03312017 Jeff 1 untitled.png
[/i]
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Alluding to what Andrew, Jeff and Steve have been forecasting, stay weather wary folks. This is from the NWS AFD this morning.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 311101
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
601 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Mostly straightforward forecast, with most/all sites at VFR
ceilings and visibilities for most/all of their period. Could see
fog or low stratus later tonight, but have only sketched at things
since onset appears to be towards the end of the period as a dry
atmosphere needs to be overcome first.

Beyond cigs/vsbys, southerly onshore flow will establish itself
and become stronger through the day. Eventually think things will
settle in around 10 knots, but gustier in the afternoon. With
sundown, gusts should settle with a bit of a reduction in
sustained winds as well.

Luchs

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 444 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017/...



.SHORT TERM [Today and Tonight]...

Bodies of water - even small lakes - are clearly visible on IR
satellite late tonight, highlighting the clear skies and light
winds to allow for good radiational cooling. Observations show
that most locations are in the low to mid 60s, with a few rural
spots dropping into the 50s. Conroe is a cool "extreme" at 52.

Expect all but the immediate Gulf coast to slip into the 50s by
morning given dewpoints in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Sunny skies
should prevail most of the day, helping temperatures soar, aided by
warm southerly onshore flow becoming reestablished as surface high
pressure drifts eastward and low pressure begins to form up on the
Texas/New Mexico border.

Low temperatures tonight will be considerably warmer as onshore flow
only continues to fuel a warm, moist profile at the surface. With
dewpoints much higher, may be on the lookout for fog. But, a
tightening pressure gradient should also spur stronger winds, and so
at this time the forecast goes for low stratus instead of fog.

Luchs


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Friday]...

Sunday...
All I will say about Saturday is to get out and enjoy it. High
temperatures will be in the 80s with moisture return from the
Gulf. Beginning as early as 06Z Sunday through about 00Z Monday,
SE Texas will need to monitor weather closely. SPC has an enhanced
severe weather risk for all of the area on Sunday. WPC has areas
north of a Brenham to Humble line in a slight risk for excessive
rainfall. This means up to a 10 percent chance of exceeding flash
flood guidance. Bottom line being impacts from all weather hazards
may be possible - hail, damaging wind, tornadoes and flooding.

Current water vapor imagery quite clearly shows an upper level
low over the Great Basin into the Desert SW. This system should
reach El Paso by 12Z Sunday. Synopticly this deep trough will
have a strong jet streak moving out of Mexico into Texas during
the day with a vorticity maximum swinging across Mexico into C
Texas by Sunday evening. Large scale lift will be enough to limit
capping from the elevated mixed layer except for maybe south
Texas. A temperature gradient at 850mb may set up from central
Texas northeast towards the Arklatex. It is along this gradient
that both the GFS/ECMWF develop quite a bit of precipitation
meaning areas from Caldwell to Crockett could stand to see heavy
rainfall and flooding potential. These details will likely change
with future model runs but something to monitor with future runs.
There will be about 1.6-1.9 inches of precipitable water, broad
large scale lift from the trough and for good measure 40-50kt LLJ
oriented normal to this 850mb temperature gradient. This
environment very much supports heavy rainfall thus WPC slight risk
of excessive rainfall for areas north of Brenham to Humble.

The environment also is quite favorable for severe weather as
highlighted by SPC`s day 3 outlook. Again these details will
likely change but for now both the GFS/NAM support deep moisture
through the boundary layer. Model soundings for each show moisture
through at least 800mb and surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to
possibly low 70s. Instability is quite high given the set up with
CAPE more than 2000 J/kg mainly due to steep lapse rates (which
would support severe hail). Warm advection and large scale lift
should be enough for surface based convection to form in the warm
sector and even along warm front/850mb temp gradient outlined
above. As for shear, 45-50kts of 0-6km bulk shear and 20-30kts of
0-1km bulk shear should be plenty for organized storms and
possibly supercells. Deep layer shear increases through the day
while low level wind fields veer with approaching dry slot and
Pacific front. Model soundings and SREF probabilities show sig
tor parameters around 3-5 Sunday morning. Tornado threat looks
highest in the morning with hail/wind threat through the
afternoon.

Overall it is hard to find factors that will limit the severe
threat as capping is not that great and strongest to the SW of the
area. The other concern will be if the upper level lift, jet
dynamics and PVA are enough out of phase with moisture/instability
axis that there is not enough lift to initiate convection or erode
what capping there is if any.

Monday Through Friday...
A Pacific front will have pushed through the area Monday morning
with a drier airmass in wake of the front. Southerly winds return
Tuesday bringing back some Gulf moisture, enough to support some
slight rain chances as a cold front pushes through the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. GFS is slower with the front
and holds on to some overrunning precipitation while
ECMWF/Canadian both push the front through quickly. Those models
seem to have a better handle on the short wave trough moving
through the plains mid week than the GFS. An amplified upper level
pattern results for the end of the week and possible to get a re-
enforcing cold front for Friday which may actually keep
temperatures below normal by 2-5 degrees for the first week of
April.


.MARINE...

Moderate winds and seas should develop today and increase
overnight. Conditions should reach caution levels so went ahead
and issued SCEC for all Upper Texas Coastal waters for tonight.
Strong winds may develop Saturday and Saturday night so will need
to monitor for possible advisory conditions. A strong upper level
low will affect Texas over the weekend with showers and
thunderstorms, most of which will be inland. A front associated
with this system will push off the coast Monday morning allowing
for offshore winds. Onshore winds develop again on Tuesday.

Tide levels will need to be monitored Sunday morning into Sunday
afternoon with tides possibly 1-1.5 feet above normal. This will
put tides near 3.5 feet above MLLW late Sunday morning and could
impact Gulf facing beaches. Rip currents will also be a concern.

Overpeck


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 86 63 83 68 78 / 0 0 20 60 80
Houston (IAH) 87 65 84 71 81 / 0 0 10 60 80
Galveston (GLS) 81 71 79 73 77 / 0 10 10 50 80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from this evening through
Saturday morning for the following zones: Coastal waters
from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20
NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20
NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport
to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters
from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...Overpeck
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Overpeck
User avatar
sambucol
Posts: 1047
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 5:43 pm
Location: Mont Belvieu
Contact:

Any updates?
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Be prepared Sunday as deep moisture, instability, and shear in front of the low can lead to rotation and hail.

Image

Image

Image


FXUS64 KHGX 311734
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017


LONG TERM [Saturday Through Friday]...

Sunday...
All I will say about Saturday is to get out and enjoy it. High
temperatures will be in the 80s with moisture return from the
Gulf. Beginning as early as 06Z Sunday through about 00Z Monday,
SE Texas will need to monitor weather closely. SPC has an enhanced
severe weather risk for all of the area on Sunday. WPC has areas
north of a Brenham to Humble line in a slight risk for excessive
rainfall. This means up to a 10 percent chance of exceeding flash
flood guidance. Bottom line being impacts from all weather hazards
may be possible - hail, damaging wind, tornadoes and flooding.

Current water vapor imagery quite clearly shows an upper level
low over the Great Basin into the Desert SW. This system should
reach El Paso by 12Z Sunday. Synopticly this deep trough will
have a strong jet streak moving out of Mexico into Texas during
the day with a vorticity maximum swinging across Mexico into C
Texas by Sunday evening. Large scale lift will be enough to limit
capping from the elevated mixed layer except for maybe south
Texas. A temperature gradient at 850mb may set up from central
Texas northeast towards the Arklatex. It is along this gradient
that both the GFS/ECMWF develop quite a bit of precipitation
meaning areas from Caldwell to Crockett could stand to see heavy
rainfall and flooding potential. These details will likely change
with future model runs but something to monitor with future runs.
There will be about 1.6-1.9 inches of precipitable water, broad
large scale lift from the trough and for good measure 40-50kt LLJ
oriented normal to this 850mb temperature gradient. This
environment very much supports heavy rainfall thus WPC slight risk
of excessive rainfall for areas north of Brenham to Humble.

The environment also is quite favorable for severe weather as
highlighted by SPC`s day 3 outlook. Again these details will
likely change but for now both the GFS/NAM support deep moisture
through the boundary layer. Model soundings for each show moisture
through at least 800mb and surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to
possibly low 70s. Instability is quite high given the set up with
CAPE more than 2000 J/kg mainly due to steep lapse rates (which
would support severe hail). Warm advection and large scale lift
should be enough for surface based convection to form in the warm
sector and even along warm front/850mb temp gradient outlined
above. As for shear, 45-50kts of 0-6km bulk shear and 20-30kts of
0-1km bulk shear should be plenty for organized storms and
possibly supercells.
Deep layer shear increases through the day
while low level wind fields veer with approaching dry slot and
Pacific front. Model soundings and SREF probabilities show sig
tor parameters around 3-5 Sunday morning. Tornado threat looks
highest in the morning with hail/wind threat through the
afternoon.


Overall it is hard to find factors that will limit the severe
threat as capping is not that great and strongest to the SW of the
area. The other concern will be if the upper level lift, jet
dynamics and PVA are enough out of phase with moisture/instability
axis that there is not enough lift to initiate convection or erode
what capping there is if any.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Image


Image
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3438
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

Moderate risk issued for day two.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
User avatar
don
Posts: 2576
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

Wow, not sure if I can remember seeing a moderate risk for the area at Day 2. Here's a snippet from their discussion about our area:



...Southeastern Plains into northwestern Gulf coast region...
Aforementioned warm sector environment conditions appear more than
favorable for organized severe storm development, in the presence of
increasing large-scale forcing for ascent. Timing of initiation of
intense boundary layer based storm development remains somewhat
unclear, but it appears possible as early as Sunday morning in the
presence of low-level warm advection across southeast Texas. This
activity may be mostly discrete in nature, in the presence of
moderately large CAPE, strong deep layer shear and sizable
clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. Evolving supercells are
expected to be accompanied by the risk for tornadoes, a few of which
may be strong.

Discrete supercell development may persist through the afternoon
hours, and perhaps the remainder of the period, spreading toward the
lower Mississippi Valley, ahead of an evolving convective system
which may be accompanied by a considerable risk for potentially
damaging wind gusts. Portions of central and eastern Texas into
Louisiana still appear the mostly likely areas that could be
impacted by an evolving convective system, but northeastward
development into portions of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent
Mississippi Valley may not be out of the question by late Sunday
night.
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3438
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

With a moderate risk issued (including a hatched 45percent region over almost all of SE Texas), models are beginning to come into consensus that all modes of severe weather and flooding will be possible. I will breakdown what I currently see and predict will happen.

Flooding

Current indications show that onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico will continue over the next two days. Models show a deep fetch of moisture streaming from the central Gulf of Mexico as dewpoints soar into the upper 60s and lower 70s. All of SE Texas will see precipitable water values between 1.8-2.1 inches by Sunday. The region will be in the center of theta-e ridging, a good indication of heavy rains. The pseudo-triple point associated with the surface low is most likely going to position itself over the hill country, focusing most of the heaviest convection along this axis. This will eventually breakdown as the upper level trough approaches and the surface low ejects to the northeast, but as it stands right now I believe the Hill Country, east Texas, and central Louisiana have the highest chances for flooding. I suspect 1-3 inches will be common across the region with isolated totals of 6-8 inches possible, especially across Louisiana and the Hill Country.

Severe Weather

Unfortunately, I believe SE Texas and the Houston metro region in particular will be in the center of the severe threat. As the longwave trough deepens and approaches from the west, a slight negative tilt will take shape. Paired with the negative tilt, a surface low will develop over southwest Texas, pushing northeast through the day Sunday. Winds will back at the surface late Saturday and early Sunday but slowly begin to veer Sunday afternoon. The degree of veering is still up to question and will mainly depend on the location and projection of the trough. With that said, the wind profile will still be very violent and support a tornado threat all day. Furthermore, as the trough approaches heights will lower and so will lapse rates. Add this all together and you have a formula for severe weather (all modes). Models have slowed the progression of the longwave some, only worsening the situation for us locally. EHI values of 5-8, 0-1km helicities of 200-300 (m^2/s^2), LI of -5-(-10), and CAPE between 1000-3000J are all indicators for severe weather. The biggest thing that will need to be monitored is early on Sunday when you get discrete cells ahead of better synoptic lift out west. Later in the evening I suspect a line will develop along the cold front as the system ejects. Straight line wind and embedded tornadoes will remain a threat along with large hail. Questions still remain though on how organized convection occurs and how the wind profile evolves over the day, but current analysis suggests that it could be a long day Sunday.

SREF SigTor risk:
Screen Shot 2017-03-31 at 10.21.06 PM.png
GFS sounding 18z for Houston:
2017040100_GFS_042_29.8,-95.32_severe_ml.png
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
javakah
Posts: 128
Joined: Thu Jun 02, 2016 9:20 pm
Location: Fulshear
Contact:

What's the timing like to be on the heaviest (strong) tornado threat?
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3438
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

javakah wrote:What's the timing like to be on the heaviest (strong) tornado threat?
Early Sunday will probably be a little more discrete and then as the day progresses thunderstorms will organize more into a line (especially over east Texas and Louisiana). Still too early to say how much of a tornado threat will develop.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3438
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

Also wanted to point out that HGX discussion does a good job highlighting some different scenarios, especially with the convective allowing models

"
It looks like SPC added another ring to the bullseye so the day 2
moderate risk for SE Texas really does catch the eye. Let`s be
clear...deep moisture, instability, lift and shear are all located
in the expected warm sector over SE Texas. The combination of
which support all modes of severe weather...tornadoes, large hail
and damaging winds. Model soundings from WRF, NAM and GFS show
increasing significant tornado parameters from 12Z to 18Z Sunday.
The potential is there for severe weather. Overall synoptic
pattern supports severe weather with an upper level low now
located over the Desert SW which should move into Big Bend/Mexico
by 12Z Sunday. There should be a jet streak moving out of Mexico
into Central Texas Sunday morning. There may be a lead vorticity
maximum that helps erode any capping. Capping is evident on the
model soundings but does indeed erode quickly after 12Z Sunday.
Should a surface based storm develop in SE Texas in the warm
sector, it will likely rotate becoming supercelluar in convective
mode. These storms will likely be ahead of any linear system that
may form in west central Texas from 06-12Z Sunday. Synoptic
models really increase convection over central Texas and then into
SE Texas 15-21Z Sunday. This seems to be likely time frame for
severe weather over SE Texas.

While we do not want to let our guard down, there are some trends
that suggest another possibility to consider. Several of the
convective allowing models...Tx Tech WRF, NCAR ensemble, WRF-
ARW/NMM, HRRR EXP 03Z run...indicate that most of the convection
will develop over west central Texas and move into central Texas
and then the Arklatex. Even the synoptic models ECMWF/GFS/Canadian
suggest this possibility so quite possible that to start the main
severe threat will be NW of the area. This storm track lines up
well with the main jet axis as well as where old stalled
front/warm front combination is located. Surface low will likely
track along this boundary and provide more of a focus for
convection. It is not until the afternoon when a mid level dry
slot approaches the area in which storms form ahead of and could
become severe. This will present more of a damage wind/hail threat
than a tornado threat since low level shear will veer to the SW
ahead of the linear forcing and convective mode.

The other issue to consider is that large scale lift may be
slightly slower to move over the region than forecast just out of
phase with the main axis of moisture/instability. It looks like
there could be a lead vorticity maximum which could erode the cap
after 12Z but if that fails to materialize then capping could
continue through the morning and it will not be until the
afternoon when better large scale lift and height falls occur.

Bottom line at the bottom...the severe weather threat for
tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds is real for SE Texas if
storms can form in the warm sector with a lead vorticity maximum and
needs to be monitored. There is still a threat for severe weather
later in the afternoon as the pacific front pushes through with a
mid level dry slot. But the threat is not completely clear cut and
there are other possibilities to consider.

Oh and before I forget...there is still that potential for heavy
rainfall. Precipitable water values crank up to 1.8 inches across
the area with a strong LLJ and possible warm front in the area.
Focus for heavy rainfall will likely be more for the northern
third of the forecast area likely from College Station to Crockett
and where we have the highest rainfall totals...2 to 3 inches.
South of there rainfall totals are more pedestrian at 1 to 2
inches. This seems to match up well with WPC slight risk of
excessive rainfall for day 2. WPC 24 hr probabilistic QPF yields
about 2 to 3 inches across the northern half of the area at the
90th percentile. Overall these totals seem realistic since storm
motions will be high, but storms will realize much of the
atmospheric moisture content."
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
Post Reply
  • Information