June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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I echo everything Steve stated. Thank you so much to the pros who hang out here (Srain, Andrew, Brooks, David, Jeff, Andrew, Wxman 57) and seasoned amateurs. A big thank you goes out to all the folks that come and make this neighborhood amazing. Thank you. I fear this could be an active season, so like Steve stated, this was a dress rehearsal for you all to be weather aware. Now, to other pressing concerns..


022
FXUS64 KHGX 221117
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
617 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.AVIATION...
Bands of precip rotating around Cindy will periodically impact terminals
along and east of I-45 today as the storm heads north along the
Tx/La border. Can`t rule out some embedded tstms with some
heating. MVFR ceilings should gradually lift into VFR territory
outside of precip later this morning and afternoon. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Diminishing NW winds will gradually back to the south today as TS Cindy
continues to move north along the Tx/La border today. The
gradient will tighten back up during the afternoon and evening
with speeds back up into small craft advisory criteria. Winds/seas
diminish going into the weekend. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Tropical Storm Cindy has officially made landfall in southwestern
Louisiana this morning between Port Arthur Texas and Cameron
Louisiana. Tropical Storm Warnings across our area have been
cancelled as of 4 AM CDT. TS Cindy will continue to move north at
a decent clip and be over the ArkLaTex region by late tonight.
Coastal winds did briefly gust to Tropical Storm force yesterday
evening with water levels at high tide achieving 4 feet (MLLW)
that led to water run up/debris over the Brazoria and Galveston
County coastal roadways. Most areas along and east of I-45 picked
up 1 to 3 inches of overnight rainfall with eastern Chambers
County recording the highest totals at slightly over 3 inches. As
Cindy travels north up the Sabine River Valley...trailing bands
of showers with embedded thunderstorms will travel in from the
north and these may put down another 1 to 2 inches of rain...locally
2 to 3 inches across more northeastern counties such as Polk or
Trinity Counties...by tomorrow afternoon. Friday`s prog soundings
show an early day mid-level cap that will erode once surface
temperatures warm into the lower 80s. Thus this forecast calls
for just slight interior rain chances. The story turns from TS
Cindy to the heat Friday as...with high dew points in the middle
to upper 70s and a partially cloudy day...more sun will have
afternoon ambient temperatures warming into the lower to middle
90s equating to Friday`s heat indices in the 104 to 108 F range.

The weekend synoptic pattern has eastern Texas placed within a
height weakness channel...or between the Bermuda ridge and a
northwestern Mexico-centered ridge. Atmospheric column moisture
will be on the rise this weekend...from around Friday`s 1.8 to 1.9
inch values to over 2 inches Saturday...as steering flow transitions
from the northeast to southeast. An approaching weak frontal
boundary entering our very warm and humid regional environment
Saturday will kick off rounds of weekend precipitation. Precipitation
will be widespread...mainly occurring during the daytime hours
and be focused over the south(west)ern and central third of the
CWA as well as the maritime areas (or the progged location of the
highest moisture/theta e axis). The enhanced lower level focus
provided by this quasi-stationary boundary has weekend QPF forecast
to average around an inch across southeastern Texas. Mainly overcast
with an easterly wind will have diurnal temperatures ranging from
the very mild morning mid to upper 70s to afternoon upper 80s to
lower 90s.


Slightly drier weather is forecast in the extended as the daytime
inland rain focus is modeled to occur along the more localized sea
and bay breezes with overnight maritime rain clusters. Upper
ridging hangs back to the west with a broad longwave trough
positioned over the eastern CONUS. This will place Texas in that
middle ground of not being too subsident for any major
drought/excessive but just unstable enough to expect day to day
mesoscale convective behavior. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 76 95 77 91 / 30 10 10 30 50
Houston (IAH) 86 77 92 78 90 / 50 30 20 30 60
Galveston (GLS) 85 82 89 82 87 / 50 20 20 20 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Waters from Freeport
to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters
from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM.

&&

$$
unome
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here's a nice loop to see what was missed overnight while we slept - loop it at the link well wishes for our neighbors in the central gulf coast still under copious amounts of TPW & hazards

Image
Image
Last edited by unome on Thu Jun 22, 2017 8:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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srainhoutx
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Nice first visible image of Cindy. Not shabby for a sloppy 994mb low...
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06222017 1238Z VIS TX latest.jpg
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unome
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from Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School - archived radar loop of Cindy starting Jun 20, might take a bit to load, nice... his main page: http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/

Cindy NWS Radar Loop: http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/ ... issvly.gif
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jasons2k
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Got a whopping .26"
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 221713
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1213 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.AVIATION...
Lingering effects from Tropical Storm Cindy will continue to have
impacts of area airports as it continues to move inland today,
primarily with winds at or above 10 knots and gusting to around or
above 20 knots. Those winds will begin westerly, but should back
to southerly by evening.

Most significant rain impact will be for UTS and CXO, nearest
what`s left of the core showers, and some lightning could be
possible as well nearby. Elsewhere, conditions should gradually
improve to VFR but with some showers passing through the area
through about 00Z. MVFR ceilings look to return overnight, and
hang around to around mid-day. For now, only bring CLL up to VFR
again in this TAF cycle, but other sites should improve
around/just after the end of the forecast period as well.

Luchs

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

UPDATE...
Center of remnants of Cindy continues to lift n near the LA/TX
border through mid morning, which will accelerate to the nne
through the day. While airmass remains moist, overall coverage of
showers and isolated thunderstorms should be pulled away as well.
Winds will be slow to decrease, but that trend will continue
through the day as well. Same goes with minor coastal flooding, so
we will be allowing coastal flood advisory to expire at 10am.

We needed to increase rain chances a touch in the far
northeastern counties and made a few updates to better match
current observations elsewhere this morning. All in all, will see
few changes to the forecast with clouds and slowly improving
weather.

Evans

AVIATION...
Bands of precip rotating around Cindy will periodically impact terminals
along and east of I-45 today as the storm heads north along the
Tx/La border. Can`t rule out some embedded tstms with some
heating. MVFR ceilings should gradually lift into VFR territory
outside of precip later this morning and afternoon. 47

MARINE...
Diminishing NW winds will gradually back to the south today as TS Cindy
continues to move north along the Tx/La border today. The
gradient will tighten back up during the afternoon and evening
with speeds back up into small craft advisory criteria. Winds/seas
diminish going into the weekend. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 76 95 77 91 / 30 10 10 30 50
Houston (IAH) 86 77 92 78 90 / 50 30 20 30 60
Galveston (GLS) 85 82 89 82 87 / 50 20 20 20 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Waters from Freeport
to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters
from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Aviation/Marine...25
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DoctorMu
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jasons wrote:Got a whopping .26"
0.06 for me. :cry:
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srainhoutx
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Cindy and its remnants are lifting NNE and should be in Arkansas tomorrow. Hot and steamy weather returns tomorrow into early Saturday when a weak backdoor frontal boundary advances into our Region from the NE setting the stage for a return to a somewhat unsettled sensible weather pattern beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing into at least Monday. A rather strong longwave trough settles into the Eastern US and the SW Heat Ridge to our West. A weakness between the Bermuda Ridge to our East and the Western Ridge suggests the possibility of scattered to possibly numerous showers and heat of the thunderstorms as that frontal boundary attempts to push to the Coast. There is a surge of deep tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Bret arriving into the Gulf on Sunday which may further assist in thunderstorm development. We may actually receive more rainfall from this event than we did from Cindy. We will see.
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ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_6.png
5dayfcst_wbg_conus(5).gif
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TexasBreeze
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May want to keep an eye on the sea breeze front headed north combining with the northwesterly flow from TD Cindy. Storms firing to the east currently.
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jasons2k
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Yeah, maybe I can add to my .26" before it's done for the day.
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Better than my .08 nearby Hooks Arpt!
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I too give a huge thank you to all of members both old and new. This is a solid Weather Community who focuses on factual and reliable weather info as Srainhoutx stated. Its an honor to be part this weather family and its about teamwork keeping the weather information flowing. TS Cindy was a great wake-up call/drill for the Houston-Galveston areas with previous seasons being quiet. The next tropical threat may be significant and if that occurs we will all do our best to keep everyone informed.
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Katdaddy wrote:I too give a huge thank you to all of members both old and new. This is a solid Weather Community who focuses on factual and reliable weather info as Srainhoutx stated. Its an honor to be part this weather family and its about teamwork keeping the weather information flowing. TS Cindy was a great wake-up call/drill for the Houston-Galveston areas with previous seasons being quiet. The next tropical threat may be significant and if that occurs we will all do our best to keep everyone informed.
Ditto ^^^^

Does anyone see a wave at 42W- is that the ghost of Ex-Bret???
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Katdaddy
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A very warm and muggy morning across SE TX with only a slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm today. This weekend is looking quiet wet across SE TX thanks to abundant moisture, a slow moving cool front, and the sea breeze. Locally heavy rains will be possible both Saturday and Sunday.
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Screen Shot 2017-06-23 at 5.38.41 AM.png
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srainhoutx
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Hot and steamy weather today with a Heat Advisory issued mainly for our Western Counties into Central Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Stay hydrated and cool off as much as possible today.

Looking ahead to the weekend, a weak frontal boundary sags SW as a backdoor front combined with very high PW's near 2.3 which is very tropical and cooling at the 850mb level as the front approaches and a weakness between a Ridge to our East and West suggest very slow moving thunderstorm may be possible. Deep tropical moisture across portion of the Gulf and the advancing tropical moisture in the NW Caribbean associated with the remnants of Bret combine to further increase our juice for night time showers and storms over the offshore waters and daytime slow moving thunderstorms inland.

Image

Mesoscale features that cannot be accurately predicted beyond 3-5 hour in advance may likely drive exactly when and which neighbor hoods see the heaviest rainfall. This front may stall somewhere across our Region that further complicated the sensible weather forecast and sea/bay breeze interact with the boundary to our N and any potential outflow boundaries that may lead to these boundary collisions. The WPC has issued a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for tomorrow across portion of our Region.
06232017 Day 2 Excessive Rainfall 98ewbg.gif
The 7 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast the unsettled pattern may ling into next week.
06232017 09Z 7 Day QPF p168i.gif
In the Tropics that old monsoonal trough continues to fester across portions of Central America and Southern Mexico and near the Gulf of Tehuatepec. 93E has been designated by the NHC and has a High Chance (70%) of developing into a Tropical Cyclone over the next 5 Days. Some mid/Upper level moisture from the tropical disturbance could spread across Mexico toward the Gulf to further complicate an already interesting forecast scenario.
06232017 5 AM PDT 93E two_pac_5d0.png
Image

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
456 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

...Heat Advisory in Effect...

.Warm temperature and high humidity will combine to produce some
107-109 degree heat indices today...generally along and west of a
College Station to Edna line.

Austin-Brazos-Burleson-Colorado-Jackson-Washington-Wharton-
Including the cities of Bellville, Brenham, Bryan, Caldwell,
College Station, Columbus, Eagle Lake, Edna, El Campo,
Lake Somerville, Pierce, Sealy, Weimar, and Wharton
456 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
Heat Advisory, which is in effect from noon today to 6 PM CDT
this evening.

* EVENT...Heat index near or above 108.

* TIMING...This afternoon.

* IMPACT...Prolonged exposure could lead to heat exhaustion,
illness or stroke if adequate precautions are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 911.

Each year...a number of fatalities occur nationwide due to
children accidentally being left in vehicles during the summer
months. In the past dozen years...500 children have died due to
hyperthermia after being left in or gaining access to cars. Never
leave children or pets unattended in a vehicle not even for a
minute. Remember...beat the heat...check the backseat.

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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Friday morning briefing from Jeff:

Heavy rainfall possible Sat-Mon

TS Cindy has weakened into a tropical depression over the mid MS Valley this morning however a moist southerly feed on the southern side of the circulation continues to bring deep tropical moisture into the region. Morning dewpoints in the staggering low 80’s have been common along the coastal areas of SW LA and extreme SE TX. Not expecting much of this moisture to mix out today and as surface temperatures rise into the lower 90’s heat index values will increase into the mid 100’s. A heat advisory has been issued for our western counties until this evening.

This weekend a weak cold front will approach and stall across the area interacting with the deep moisture in place. PWS will remain in the 2.0-2.3 inches range as moisture from Cindy and arriving moisture from ex tropical storm Bret pushes into the western Gulf of Mexico. Overall storm motions look slow at less than 10kts and will likely be strongly tied to outflow boundary collisions. Potential for decent development of storms north of the region around midday Saturday along the sagging frontal boundary and then along the northward moving seabreeze. Potential is for these tow boundaries our their thunderstorms to collide at some point between US 59 and HWY 105 Saturday afternoon or evening.

Moisture remains very high into Sunday and Monday and expect additional daily rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. Frontal system will gradually dissipate with the focus being along the inland moving seabreeze each afternoon. Mid level heights do not begin to rise until about Tuesday and that should begin to reduce rain chances.

Pattern ahead will be highly convective with potential for isolated locations to receive several inches of rainfall in a short period of time and nearby locations get nothing. Deep saturated column and high moisture levels will support very high short term rainfall rates of 2-4 inches in an hour. Street flooding will be the main concern with this type of rainfall rate.
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BlueJay
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Quiet as crickets. Let's hope the tropics get the hint.
Happy Friday everyone!
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djjordan
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Hot is an understatement today ..... Kingsville had a heat index reach 121 earlier .... sitting at 116 right now as they are under an excessive heat warning. One of those days to stay indoors or at the pool for sure. Stay hydrated. Mother nature has her own version of hydration for us this weekend.
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Portastorm
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Very dangerous heat indices here at 4 pm in South Central Texas ranging between 110-114 right now. Sure hoping the latest short range models are correct and that rain is coming tomorrow.
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I hate Summer
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