June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
TexasBreeze
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Better than my .08 nearby Hooks Arpt!
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Katdaddy
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I too give a huge thank you to all of members both old and new. This is a solid Weather Community who focuses on factual and reliable weather info as Srainhoutx stated. Its an honor to be part this weather family and its about teamwork keeping the weather information flowing. TS Cindy was a great wake-up call/drill for the Houston-Galveston areas with previous seasons being quiet. The next tropical threat may be significant and if that occurs we will all do our best to keep everyone informed.
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Texaspirate11
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Katdaddy wrote:I too give a huge thank you to all of members both old and new. This is a solid Weather Community who focuses on factual and reliable weather info as Srainhoutx stated. Its an honor to be part this weather family and its about teamwork keeping the weather information flowing. TS Cindy was a great wake-up call/drill for the Houston-Galveston areas with previous seasons being quiet. The next tropical threat may be significant and if that occurs we will all do our best to keep everyone informed.
Ditto ^^^^

Does anyone see a wave at 42W- is that the ghost of Ex-Bret???
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Katdaddy
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A very warm and muggy morning across SE TX with only a slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm today. This weekend is looking quiet wet across SE TX thanks to abundant moisture, a slow moving cool front, and the sea breeze. Locally heavy rains will be possible both Saturday and Sunday.
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srainhoutx
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Hot and steamy weather today with a Heat Advisory issued mainly for our Western Counties into Central Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Stay hydrated and cool off as much as possible today.

Looking ahead to the weekend, a weak frontal boundary sags SW as a backdoor front combined with very high PW's near 2.3 which is very tropical and cooling at the 850mb level as the front approaches and a weakness between a Ridge to our East and West suggest very slow moving thunderstorm may be possible. Deep tropical moisture across portion of the Gulf and the advancing tropical moisture in the NW Caribbean associated with the remnants of Bret combine to further increase our juice for night time showers and storms over the offshore waters and daytime slow moving thunderstorms inland.

Image

Mesoscale features that cannot be accurately predicted beyond 3-5 hour in advance may likely drive exactly when and which neighbor hoods see the heaviest rainfall. This front may stall somewhere across our Region that further complicated the sensible weather forecast and sea/bay breeze interact with the boundary to our N and any potential outflow boundaries that may lead to these boundary collisions. The WPC has issued a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for tomorrow across portion of our Region.
06232017 Day 2 Excessive Rainfall 98ewbg.gif
The 7 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast the unsettled pattern may ling into next week.
06232017 09Z 7 Day QPF p168i.gif
In the Tropics that old monsoonal trough continues to fester across portions of Central America and Southern Mexico and near the Gulf of Tehuatepec. 93E has been designated by the NHC and has a High Chance (70%) of developing into a Tropical Cyclone over the next 5 Days. Some mid/Upper level moisture from the tropical disturbance could spread across Mexico toward the Gulf to further complicate an already interesting forecast scenario.
06232017 5 AM PDT 93E two_pac_5d0.png
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National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
456 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

...Heat Advisory in Effect...

.Warm temperature and high humidity will combine to produce some
107-109 degree heat indices today...generally along and west of a
College Station to Edna line.

Austin-Brazos-Burleson-Colorado-Jackson-Washington-Wharton-
Including the cities of Bellville, Brenham, Bryan, Caldwell,
College Station, Columbus, Eagle Lake, Edna, El Campo,
Lake Somerville, Pierce, Sealy, Weimar, and Wharton
456 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
Heat Advisory, which is in effect from noon today to 6 PM CDT
this evening.

* EVENT...Heat index near or above 108.

* TIMING...This afternoon.

* IMPACT...Prolonged exposure could lead to heat exhaustion,
illness or stroke if adequate precautions are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 911.

Each year...a number of fatalities occur nationwide due to
children accidentally being left in vehicles during the summer
months. In the past dozen years...500 children have died due to
hyperthermia after being left in or gaining access to cars. Never
leave children or pets unattended in a vehicle not even for a
minute. Remember...beat the heat...check the backseat.

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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Friday morning briefing from Jeff:

Heavy rainfall possible Sat-Mon

TS Cindy has weakened into a tropical depression over the mid MS Valley this morning however a moist southerly feed on the southern side of the circulation continues to bring deep tropical moisture into the region. Morning dewpoints in the staggering low 80’s have been common along the coastal areas of SW LA and extreme SE TX. Not expecting much of this moisture to mix out today and as surface temperatures rise into the lower 90’s heat index values will increase into the mid 100’s. A heat advisory has been issued for our western counties until this evening.

This weekend a weak cold front will approach and stall across the area interacting with the deep moisture in place. PWS will remain in the 2.0-2.3 inches range as moisture from Cindy and arriving moisture from ex tropical storm Bret pushes into the western Gulf of Mexico. Overall storm motions look slow at less than 10kts and will likely be strongly tied to outflow boundary collisions. Potential for decent development of storms north of the region around midday Saturday along the sagging frontal boundary and then along the northward moving seabreeze. Potential is for these tow boundaries our their thunderstorms to collide at some point between US 59 and HWY 105 Saturday afternoon or evening.

Moisture remains very high into Sunday and Monday and expect additional daily rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. Frontal system will gradually dissipate with the focus being along the inland moving seabreeze each afternoon. Mid level heights do not begin to rise until about Tuesday and that should begin to reduce rain chances.

Pattern ahead will be highly convective with potential for isolated locations to receive several inches of rainfall in a short period of time and nearby locations get nothing. Deep saturated column and high moisture levels will support very high short term rainfall rates of 2-4 inches in an hour. Street flooding will be the main concern with this type of rainfall rate.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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BlueJay
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Quiet as crickets. Let's hope the tropics get the hint.
Happy Friday everyone!
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djjordan
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Hot is an understatement today ..... Kingsville had a heat index reach 121 earlier .... sitting at 116 right now as they are under an excessive heat warning. One of those days to stay indoors or at the pool for sure. Stay hydrated. Mother nature has her own version of hydration for us this weekend.
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~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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Portastorm
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Very dangerous heat indices here at 4 pm in South Central Texas ranging between 110-114 right now. Sure hoping the latest short range models are correct and that rain is coming tomorrow.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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I hate Summer
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