July 2017 - TS Emily West of Tampa

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
unome
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feels like the summers of old - can count on 1 hand the times we've had to water so far this season !

hope I don't jinx it...
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srainhoutx
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It appears we have another day or two of shower and storm chances as the weakness along the Northern Gulf Coast and an Upper Low meanders Westbound with its near 2.2 inch PW’s exits the area. The Strong Ridge across the Plains and the SE United States builds into Texas putting an end to our rain chances throughout the work week. It appears we may end up with Heat Indices precariously close to Heat Advisory Criteria, so take that into consideration when working outdoors and stay hydrated with frequent breaks and check on those that may be without Air Conditioning and particularly check the back seat before exiting vehicles for children. We are seeing way too many useless deaths of children this year because people become so wrapped up in the distraction of daily life and forget about those children.

The overnight Ensemble Guidance does suggest a developing Eastern US trough may shift the Heat Ridge back West allowing for a frontal boundary to approach our Region next weekend and bring back shower and storm chances as we end July.
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Looking ahead to the Extended Range as August begins, we are seeing signs of a significant Hemispheric Pattern change as the Madden Julian Oscillation currently favoring the Western and Central Pacific has allowed a parade of Tropical Disturbances to march across the Pacific Ocean from Mexico to China. The MJO is suggesting a more favorable pattern will propagate Eastbound across the Pacific and enter the Western Atlantic Basin near the second week of August. There is also a Convectively Couple Kelvin Wave moving our way in tandem with the MJO pulse suggesting the Eastern Pacific Tropical activity may decrease in early August as the North Atlantic Basin becomes more favorable for Tropical Development.
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As many of the reliable Tropical Experts have indicated, the ENSO conditions have switched from the early season indicators of a weak El Nino to that of more of a more Neutral Phase as water across the Pacific from South America have not warmed and that lack or warming Seas Surface Temperatures extends to the Central Pacific Ocean. While it is certainly too soon to know with any certainty what exactly lies ahead regarding the potential Tropical Development in our Basin, consensus continues to increase suggesting a more active Tropical Season lies ahead. It has been 11.7 years since a Major Hurricane made landfall along the United States Coast, which is likely a record length of time without a Major Hurricane impacting the US Coastline.

As the end of July nears, perhaps someone can start an August Topic as we transition quickly toward Peak Hurricane Season in the North Atlantic Basin… ;)
06272017 PHOTO-Tropical%20storm%20and%20hurricane%20days%20Atlantic%20basin-%2081916-NOAA-831x546-Landscape.png
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DoctorMu
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unome wrote:feels like the summers of old - can count on 1 hand the times we've had to water so far this season !

hope I don't jinx it...

:P Death Ridge on cue.
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DoctorMu
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Srain: Correct. The models are have been suggesting since yesterday that the next chance of rain for the area is around the beginning of August. Everyone - Hang on 'til then.

Now the neighbors finally understand why I cut St. Augustine high in the summer!
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4:03am 7/28/17 ... I expect this activity to stay NORTH of the Houston Metro area, but from the perspective of the KHOU-TV viewing area, this stuff has already worked into northern Polk County and San Jacinto Counties ... probably won't make it to much farther south. However... There remains a chance Houston metro could get a 'surprise' storm from this complex, should an outflow boundary push south or meso cold pool develop, but then again, I'd expect Liberty County as opposed to Harris County, based on radar trends @ 4am ... It's that time of year when it won't take much in a charged atmosphere
-Brooks


MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0549

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

456 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2017



AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX INTO CNTRL LA/SWRN MS



CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE



VALID 240855Z - 241400Z



SUMMARY...SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS

OF ERN TX INTO CNTRL LA AND SWRN MS WITH SLOW CELL MOVEMENT

CONTAINING RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO

SLOWLY INCREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.



DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY

ARCING ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN TX...WHICH HAS

BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER

HOUSTON...TRINITY AND ANGELINA COUNTIES WITH RADAR ESTIMATED

RAINFALL RATES SURPASSING 2 IN/HR AS OF 0840Z. OTHER SCATTERED

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS NOTED ACROSS SWRN MS...IN THE VICINITY

OF A WEAK 700-500 MB TROUGH AXIS. THE ENTIRE REGION FROM EAST

TEXAS INTO SWRN MS IS CAUGHT IN A LARGE-SCALE COL IN THE MID-UPPER

FLOW ALLOWING FOR WEAK CELL MOTIONS. HOWEVER...VAD WIND PLOTS AT

KPOE AND KLCH CONFIRMED RECENT RAP FORECASTS OF RELATIVELY

STRONGER WLY 850 MB FLOW RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KT. GPS

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGED FROM 1.9 TO 2.2 INCHES FROM 06Z

OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...WHICH SHOULD HELP COMPENSATE FOR WEAK

CAPE VALUES ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG BASED ON

RECENT OUTPUT FROM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE.



THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE FROM

PORTIONS OF EAST TX INTO CNTRL LA AND SWRN MS OVER THE NEXT FEW

HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK UPPER FORCING. LITTLE CIN IN RAP

ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS MAY ALSO SUPPORT RAPID CELL DEVELOPMENT AFTER

SUNRISE. CELL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TOWARD THE

EAST...BUT STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW NOTED ABOVE SHOULD SUPPORT

TRAINING AND BACK BUILDING OF CONVECTION LEADING TO VERY HEAVY

RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW AREAS OF FLASH

FLOODING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF COVERAGE

INCREASES OVER PORTIONS OF LA INTO MS WHERE FFG VALUES ARE

LOWERED...1.5 TO 3 INCHES IN 3 HOURS FOR A FEW LOCATIONS.



THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN A MAJORITY OF THE 00Z

CAM GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND ESRL

EXPERIMENTAL HRRR...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE IN THE HRRRS COULD BE TOO

LARGE BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL...THE AREA IS WORTH

WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.



OTTO
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srainhoutx
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Water Vapor Imagery shows a shortwave diving SE along The Red River just NW of Dallas/Fort Worth. That feature is beginning to fire of some showers and storms and may assist in developing additional showers and storms across the Region in the very deep moisture (2.25 inch PW's) in place across Metro Houston. We are already seeing an outflow boundary heading South from the Storm Complex to our North and NE.

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srainhoutx
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07242017 mcd0552.gif
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0552
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1029 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TX...CENTRAL LA...SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHERN
AL...WESTERN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 241430Z - 241930Z

SUMMARY...LONG STRUNG OUT CONFLUENCE ZONE WITHIN UNSTABLE VERY
MOIST ENVIORMENT AND WEAK FLOW SUPPORT THREAT FOR CONTINUED FLASH
FLOODING RISK.

DISCUSSION...GOES-EAST WV LOOP SHOWS THE TRAILING EDGE OF A TROF
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION TOWARD A WEAK CLOSED
LOW ACROSS NE TX/N LA GIVEN THE WEAKENED FLOW. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...850-7H IS A WEAK CONFLUENT TROF FROM EASTERN TX TO THE W
FL PANHANDLE WITH A FEW WEAK INFLECTIONS ALONG IT SOME
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED (SUCH AS E TX). THIS CONFLUENCE/RETURN FLOW
FROM THE WESTERN GULF PROVIDES SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FLUX TO MAINTAIN ONGOING CONVECTION AS WELL A
SUPPORT DOWNSTREAM/REACTIVATION ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OUT FROM
ORIGINAL CONVECTION. MLCAPES TO 2500 J/KG AND TPWS OVER 2" AND
LOCALIZED MAXIMA OVER 2.25" SUPPORT HIGHLY EFFICIENT BUT DEEP
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH RATES UP TO 2.5"/HR POSSIBLE. GIVEN WEAK
MID-LEVEL FLOW CELL MOTIONS HAVE BEEN NEAR ZERO AND PROPAGATION
OCCURS AS LOCALIZED COLD POOLS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OCCUR. THIS
ALLOWS FOR TOTALS OF 2-4" IN SHORT-ORDER ALLOWING FOR FLASFH
FLOODING CONCERNS. HI-RES RAPIDLY REFRESHING GUIDANCE (HRRR/RAP)
SUGGEST THIS CONFLUENT FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

EASTERN TX...GOES-16 EXPERIMENTAL VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHALLOW
7H WAVE OVER NE TX DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE MCV NEAR W OF LFK/SW
OF OCH. THIS MAY SUPPORT A BINARY INTERACTION WHICH SHOULD HELP
TO KEEP THE MCV FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAINTAIN FORCING AND LOCALIZED
ADVECTION OF ADDITIONAL UNSTABLE/MST AIR TO LEAD TO CONTINUED
LIKELY FLASH FLOODING RISK. RECENT VIS TRENDS ALSO SUGGEST FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT INTO CENTRAL LA.GIVEN MCV
STRENGTH...PROPAGATION VECTORS IN THIS AREA HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
BACKBUILDING ALONG THE CONFLUENCE LINE TO ALLOW FOR REPEATING
TRACKS.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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tireman4
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068
FXUS64 KHGX 241139
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.AVIATION...
A few items of note this morning as northern Texas convective
outflow has provided the initiation and focus for slow-moving
clustering storms north and east of the hubs. Anticipating that
this activity will only impact Huntsville as showers and storms
build back to the west over their air space...VCSH over the next
couple of hours with a possible addition of thunder through 15-16Z
as it continues to be monitored. The second mention will be of a
lower level jet stream hugging the coast through mid-day. Albeit
forecast to weaken...this jet could introduce periodic early day
MVFR ceilings but will most likely be noticed in higher turbulence
within the lower few thousand feet. Thus...early day attention
needs to be paid for the existence of lower level turbulence across
more southern region terminals. Drier air working its way in from
the southwest should preclude the mention of afternoon precipitation
and aid in scouring out lower level decks (just mid level ceilings).
A slight chance for a repeat of north(east)ern state storm outflow
reaching the northern hubs tomorrow morning. 31
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Rip76
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Poof.

Must be that Saharan dust.
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DoctorMu
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Outflow has made it to Hearne.


Image

Will the Aggiedome relent before the sun sets?



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
348 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Another line of storms beginning to fill in just north of the CWFA
this afternoon...and is expected to move into our NW counties thru
the early evening hours. Brief heavy rain and gusty winds are pos-
sible with these storms before sunset.


The upper ridge of high pressure building into the region from the
west will help to keep POPS low and temperatures high across SE TX
tomorrow. Have kept the mention of isolated POPS in for Weds given
the persistence of models drawing a slug of slightly deeper moist-
ure into the area from the Gulf. Progged PWs up to 2.2" along with
daytime heating and the seabreeze should be the main catalysts for
storms. The strengthening ridge will lower POPS once again for Thu
and Fri...with the main forecast issue then becoming elevated heat
indicies approaching our criteria/threshold of 108.

Extended guidance still holding onto the idea of a front moving in
to the area from the NE this weekend. GFS remains the most aggres-
sive with this possibility, but the other models seem to be coming
around to this idea as well
. PWs are currently progged to pool at/
around 2.2-2.5" along and ahead of this boundary as it move across
the lower MS River Valley with the western extent of this activity
in SE TX. While there is not a lot of confidence with the scenario
given this time of year, long-range models have been consistent so
far. 41

&&
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DoctorMu
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If you're keeping score it was AggieDome 1, Outflow boundary 0 last night. Storms literally died within 3.5 miles of our home.

There's a...

Image

beginning this weekend as the ridge and eastern trough slide west.




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1006 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Only a few tweaks to the forecast for the update...mainly to ac-
count for ongoing cloud cover trends (particularly at the coast).
Not expecting much by way of precipitation this afternoon given
the slightly lower PWs and stronger cap over the area. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017/

Under partly to mostly cloudy skies, early morning temperatures across
Southeast Texas are in the mid to upper 70s inland and in the lower
80s at the coast. These readings are actually a degree or two cooler
than they were at this time yesterday. Radar is quiet at the moment,
and the forecast has it staying that way today as we lose our recent
2+ precipitable water values with mid/upper level ridging beginning
to build into the area. Some moisture from a western Gulf of Mexico
mid/upper level could work its way into our area on Wednesday, so will
maintain low rain chances that are already in the forecast. Will keep
Thursday and Friday mostly dry, then bring some rain back into the
forecast beginning over the weekend and possibly continuing into the
start of next week as a western U.S. ridge and eastern U.S trough allows
a weak frontal boundary to slowly sag southward into the area. If this
boundary lingers in/around our area early next week, parts of Southeast
Texas could end up getting some decent rainfall coverage. If it manages
to move far enough southward, much of our area could end up drier.


Rising heat index values will be the weather story for the rest of the
week, and heat advisories might be needed as values are expected to
get closet to our 108 degree threshold. Even if no advisory is in effect,
precautions should always be taken at this time of the summer to keep
people and pets safe from the heat. 42
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srainhoutx
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Tuesday afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Upper level pattern is undergoing transition across the US with a building ridge of high pressure over the SW US and developing trough across the eastern US.

Overall day to day change in the actual weather across SE TX will be minimal with mostly dry conditions as the SW US ridge builds into Texas limiting rain chances. Moisture levels do look to increase on Wednesday, but the combination of building heights aloft and subsidence point to no more than 20% chances along the local seabreeze fronts. Heights increase slightly Thursday and Friday and expect afternoon high temperatures to reach the upper 90’s over the area. So far this summer Houston has “only” reached 97 degrees due to the rainfall, clouds, and green vegetation. Could make a run at 100 on Thursday and Friday, but still wet grounds over the area from the recent rainfall may prevent some areas from reaching into the low 100’s. Combination of afternoon high temperatures and dewpoints in the 70’s will result in heat index values of 104-108 across the region. Could see more widespread values near 108 on Thursday and Friday which would be enough to trigger a heat advisory. Remember that heat stress builds over time especially when overnight lows do not fall much below 80.


Interesting that models are forecasting a frontal boundary to sag southward and into the area this weekend due to the amplified upper air pattern with a ridge over the western US and trough in the east. Heights begin to fall by Saturday and moisture increases ahead of the southward moving boundary. This type of pattern in late July can certainly feature some strong to severe thunderstorms approaching the area during maximum heating from the NNE/NE. Will increase rain chances Saturday and Sunday to 30%. If some of the forecast models are correct the front may actually move off the coast and stall across the northern Gulf of Mexico which would bring a much drier air mass into the region. While the drier air may be nice, it is never a good idea to stall a frontal boundary across the Gulf of Mexico in early August.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Katdaddy
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Another hot and humid day across SE TX with a 20-30% chance of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High temps approach the upper 90s with an increasing heat index Thursday and Friday which may result in Heat Advisories being issued for portions of SE TX.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Roughly 50-60 days before that first "average" cold front enters SE Texas and starts us moving into Fall.
Team #NeverSummer
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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote:Roughly 50-60 days before that first "average" cold front enters SE Texas and starts us moving into Fall.

Unusual front headed backdoor towards HGX Sunday. NW flow aloft then next week. Hot-ish, but not the usual scorching, and lower DP? Potentially unsettled the following weekend. We'll see.

Image
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srainhoutx
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Some of you will remember this event back in 1979. It serves as a reminder that we don't necessarily need as full blown Hurricane to create havoc in SE Texas.
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srainhoutx wrote:Some of you will remember this event back in 1979. It serves as a reminder that we don't necessarily need as full blown Hurricane to create havoc in SE Texas.
A core rain event.
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srainhoutx wrote:Some of you will remember this event back in 1979. It serves as a reminder that we don't necessarily need as full blown Hurricane to create havoc in SE Texas.
I DONT want to ever live that nightmare again as a teenager we woke up just before the water entered our home. We ended up with 3 feet of water in our house. To this day I cringe when we have heavy rain.
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I was 11 at the time and estimate E Pearland had 22.5” during the same 24 hour period with Friendswood receiving around 30”. I remember waking up close to midnight and putting my foot on the floor to see if we had flood waters in the house. Thankfully we did not but it was a very close call. Cant imagine how bad it was in W League where I currently live during Claudette.
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srainhoutx
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Friday morning briefing from Jeff:

Amplification of the upper level pattern over the US will send a “rare” early August “cool” front across the region this weekend.

A deepening eastern US trough and building western US ridge will produce NNW upper level flow across the southern plains helping to push a surface boundary with lower dewpoints into the area from the NNE late Saturday. Before this arrival of this front temperatures will warm to near 100 both today and Saturday as SSW winds at the surface and compressional heating ahead of the boundary work to rapidly heat the low level air mass. Front boundary with pooled 2.2-2.4 inch PWS air mass will arrive into deep E TX late Saturday afternoon where strong thunderstorms may develop along the boundary and move SSW/SW into the evening hours of Saturday evening. Exact timing of the boundary into SE TX late Saturday will likely play a large role in the formation of showers and thunderstorms with an earlier arrival yielding a better chance and a passage overnight into Sunday morning a lesser chance.

Front actually looks to clear the coast before stalling allowing a refreshing mid 60’s degree dewpoint air mass to spread into the region late Sunday into Monday. Will only knock about 5 degrees off the high temperatures for Sunday and Monday compared to Saturday, but the lower dewpoints and humidity should be noticeable.

Frontal boundary stalls across the northern Gulf of Mexico late Sunday-late Tuesday. Forecast models do not show any attempts at surface low pressure trying to form along this boundary which is always a concern with a decaying front over the Gulf of Mexico in August. Large upper trough from the NE US trailing back to TX by mid week helps to bring what looks to be a prolonged period of active weather to the region starting Wednesday. Gulf front washes out on Wednesday and surge of deep tropical air will quickly return with PWS rapidly rising toward 2.2 inches. Will bring back 40% rain chances on Wednesday and the end of next week into next weekend is looking wet with daily chances for thunderstorms.
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