July 2017 - TS Emily West of Tampa

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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ticka1
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Starting topic for upcoming July weather!!!
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srainhoutx
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It looks like as of today we will have a Hot and Dry 4th of July Holiday Period. I see no weather worries for all the festivities. Stay Hydrated! Heat indices will likely reach into the low 100's!
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Ptarmigan
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Halfway through 2017.
ticka1
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looking at the next 10 days - hot and humid with no rain in forecast!
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A very humid morning across the Upper TX Coast with only a slight chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms before hot and dry weather arrives for the weekend through the 4th of July. The tropics remain very quiet for now.
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srainhoutx
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The Hemispheric Pattern suggests subsidence will rule the sensible weather forecast throughout the 4th of July long Holiday Period.

We may see a slight increase in moisture late next week as a upper trough nears our Region, but that is too far into the future to know with any certainty.

I have been mentioning in our Hurricane Central section regarding a potential change around mid July as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) transitions from one of sinking air, therefore subsidence toward rising air and the possibility of enhancement or more favorable conditions for tropical showers and tropical thunderstorms to develop across the Eastern Pacific and eventually into the Western Atlantic Basin around mid July. There are indications that a rather impressive Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave arrives as well further indicating the potential of more favorable conditions for tropical development. We have plenty of time to watch these features, so no Tropical Mischief is on the Horizon at this time. We typically begin to see the potential for tropical development in slowly increase during the month of July into August before peaking around mid September.

I hope everyone has a great and safe 4th of July Holiday!
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07012017 mcd1210.gif
Mesoscale Discussion 1210
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Sat Jul 01 2017

Areas affected...Eastern Texas...northern Louisiana...and southern
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 011633Z - 011830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging wind gusts are possible as a linear
complex migrates slowly eastward through the afternoon. A weather
watch issuance is not anticipated for this activity.

DISCUSSION...A remnant convective complex from overnight activity
across west Texas has reintensified along/just east of the I-35
corridor in central/north Texas over the past half hour or so. This
reintensification is attributed to eastward propagation of the
complex into an increasingly uncapped, strongly unstable downstream
airmass, with MUCAPE values approaching 4000 J/kg. Furthermore,
propagation along an east-to-west oriented outflow
boundary/differential heating zone may be promoting further
organization of the convective cluster despite modest deep shear or
storm organization.

Models (including convection-allowing guidance) are not consistent
with regard to longevity of the complex. However, the presence of
ongoing propagation and an uncapped downstream airmass suggests that
storms should persist through the afternoon, with a slow eastward
progression across the discussion area over time. Sporadic damaging
wind gusts are possible with stronger cores along the leading edge
of the complex. A weather watch issuance is not anticipated for
this activity, although convective trends will be monitored.

..Cook/Grams.. 07/01/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
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DoctorMu
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srainhoutx wrote:It looks like as of today we will have a Hot and Dry 4th of July Holiday Period. I see no weather worries for all the festivities. Stay Hydrated! Heat indices will likely reach into the low 100's!
More heat as the ridge holds. Not much chance of rain for the foreseeable future. The ArkLaTex MVC is moving away - we're high and dry. At least the dew point as "plummeted" to a mere 72°, giving us heat indexes of 102° rather than 107°. Yesterday was a real roaster!
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DoctorMu
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GFS has this as an Atlantic coast storm but :shock: at the potential strength of this TC in mid July off Florida.

Image

The site chopped off the end, but 958 mb pressure...

FWIW, both GFS and CMC have higher rain chances for us in another 7-8 days. Long way off for any confidence on any scenario.
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DoctorMu wrote:GFS has this as an Atlantic coast storm but :shock: at the potential strength of this TC in mid July off Florida.

Image

The site chopped off the end, but 958 mb pressure...

FWIW, both GFS and CMC have higher rain chances for us in another 7-8 days. Long way off for any confidence on any scenario.
That is 14 days off. If other forecast models like EURO, Canadian, and Japanese were on board along with GFS, than we would have something. EURO and Canadian go up to 10 days.

We will have to see in the next few days.
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DoctorMu
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^CMC and GFS have 2 solutions on a tropical atlantic system around the 12th. Nothing on the Euro.

Hope there may be a pattern change for us then. We're high and dry until next weekend. We'll see after that. Weeks 2, 3 on CFS climo have wetter anomaly trends than this week. Cooler also. That would be nice...
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I'll wait for the EURO.
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DoctorMu
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Euro has weak, but closed circulation NE of the Bahamas ...still a long way off... and possibly extrapolation of the Cape Verde system Invest 94L. Unlikely to affect us as the Bermuda High is most likely to steer whatever form it takes up and east of the East Coast.

https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/stat ... els.com%2F


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure has remained nearly stationary about
650 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although shower
and thunderstorm activity is disorganized, environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for some development of this
system later this week while the disturbance moves westward at 5 to
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png


There's not much shear in the GoM. Just very little action, although conditions in the GoM and western Caribbean are relatively favorable.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

http://static.baynews9.com/images/wx/bn9/60min/BHI.jpg


For us...continued Hot and boring for now...maybe next week
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srainhoutx
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There is a Topic up in our Hurricane Central Section covering 94L since it poses no threat to the Gulf of Mexico at this time...and likely will be nothing more than recurving marine interest storm, possibly brushing by Bermuda.

Locally through the remainder of the 4th of July Holiday period, Hot and Dry remains the theme.

As the week wears on, we may need to turn eyes North toward N Texas as a shortwave and attending slow moving boundary attempts to fire off rounds of thunderstorms around mid to late week with the possibility of an organized Mesoscale Convective Systems pushing outflow boundaries toward portions of SE Texas.

Looking ahead, we'll need to monitor the increasing chances of a bit more favorable Hemispheric Pattern entering the Western Atlantic Basin around July 20th and spreading East across the Gulf, Caribbean Sea and the Main Development Region into at least late July into early/mid August. The 00Z ECMWF is suggesting the Eastern Pacific may spin up a couple of Tropical Systems next week suggesting the propagation East of the Madden Julian Oscillation and a robust Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave idea may have some validity. Enjoy this quiet period while it lasts!
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DoctorMu
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We *might* get lucky later in the week, if the 4 corners ridge pushes storms down this way.


In the meantime, sprinklers back on. :x Happy 4th! 8-)



PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The quiet weather should continue for a couple more days. Upper
ridging suppressing deep convection across the area with the
possibility of just a few streamer showers over the Gulf waters
and extending into the coastal counties. Temperatures during the
afternoon will continue to run up into the mid 90s with lows
falling to the mid 70s close to normal for this time of year or
within a few degrees of it...on the coast 90-91 degrees and lows
around 80. Persistent onshore flow will keep it hot and heat index
readings each day should hit the 95 mark between 10-11 am and peak
in the 100-105 degree range through Sunday.

As for precip...MCS in OK/NETX will shed some cirrus that may
creep down into Houston/Trinity counties otherwise rain chances
low across the area today and on Tuesday the 4th of July. Deeper
plume of moisture swings west across the Gulf Tuesday and the
northern extent of it (drying somewhat) arrives Wednesday morning
and should produce widely scattered to scattered showers over the
coastal waters expanding inland and transitioning over to isolated
thunderstorms. Will need to keep a close eye for MCS propagating
southward with a more potent s/w over OK/AR Wednesday afternoon as
this could spread some high clouds into the area or if it holds
together could become a focus for storms over the northern
areas...as of this package will keep it out of the area but
something to monitor. That s/w trails a cold front that should
stall over NETX with the upper shear axis draped across TN/AR/N-TX
and a strengthening upper death ridge over the 4 corners which
should in turn nudge the shear axis southward Friday through
Saturday. With the moisture in place and slight weakening of the
capping inversion may begin to see more diurnally driven
showers/thunderstorms over the area. So will continue to carry
20-30 POPS Thu-Sun.


Tropics...disturbance in the far eastern Atlantic should move west
and has some potential for development and with the both 00Z runs
of the GFS/ECMWF picking up on development confidence
increasing...the good news for us is it will probably stay well
east of the Gulf and spend its life as a fish storm that recurves
and passes near to Bermuda.
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DoctorMu
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An outflow boundary has snuck down overnight from DFW. A brief shower and a little cooling. A very nice backdoor July 4 surprise in CLL.

Image



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
616 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

.AVIATION...
A few streamer showers could affect KGLS early this morning but
these will wane this morning. MVFR cigs to affect KCLL this
morning before conds mix out later this morning. An outflow
boundary over North Texas will continue to sink south this
morning. Showers will probably impact KCLL and KUTS between
14-16z before most of the activity diminishes and ends. The
boundary will continue to sag south this afternoon and could serve
as a focus for additional shra/tsra. The 06z GFS is much more
bullish with PoPs for today and this matches up well with the 4 KM
NCEP WRF.
The WRF initialized best at 00z so was leaning toward
it`s solution for this afternoon. VFR conds expected tonight
through 06z with MVFR cigs possible toward KCLL between 06-08z. 43
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Texaspirate11
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Happy 4th of July Friends!
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srainhoutx
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Happy Independence Day Gang! Local Weather Update from Jeff:

Local Weather:

594dm ridge that has been sitting over TX for the last several days will begin to retreat W toward the 4 corners area as strong shortwaves over OK break down the eastern flank of the ridge. Convective complexes over OK overnight have surged southward into E TX resulting in a strong outflow boundaries moving into SE TX this morning. Temperature contrast of 10 degrees across this boundary is resulting in its continued southward advancement this morning and it may reach as far south as I-10. Overall reduction in mid level ridging and weakening of cap will make both southward moving outflow boundaries and northward moving seabreeze front more active each afternoon. Additionally, plume of tropical moisture noted over the central Gulf of Mexico with PWS up to 1.9 inches will be advecting toward the TX coast starting Wednesday. Will cap afternoon thunderstorm chances at 30% each afternoon, but could see a few days where OK complexes send boundaries this way with higher chances. Ridge does not gain a strong foothold across the region through the next 7 days with daily seabreeze storm chances and potential for storm complexes to wrap around the eastern flank of the ridge and toward SE TX from the NNE/NE. In fact some guidance is suggesting a weak frontal boundary may attempt to back into the area from the NNE late this weekend or early next week which would help to enhance rain chances.
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Happy 4th of July to all forum members and their families. :D
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Katdaddy
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Happy 4th of July to all forum members and your families. Have a great and safe 4th of July! Stay cool out there.
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