August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
jeff
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Always keep an eye on an MVC in 2.0+ inch PW air mass with light winds aloft. Lack of good low level inflow may keep things from organizing much...although coastal outflow boundary from earlier is starting to wash out and return of southerly 10-15kt inflow is likely around midnight over the area. HRRR from earlier was hinting at convergent zone along US 59 on SE flank of MVC circulation and returning juicy air mass from the south.
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DoctorMu
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TexasBreeze wrote:Looks like showers popping around the remnant vortex currently around College/Bryan area...
Yes indeed. It's been a bit of a ride. Another 1 inch of rain IMBY. So nice to turn the sprinklers OFF.

The vortex is swirling down toward Houston.

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Last edited by DoctorMu on Mon Aug 07, 2017 11:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
sau27
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I have been trying (and failing) to see if the MCV is moving or just sitting stationary over college stattion. Anyone have a better idea if it is moving?
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It is stationary it appears and getting more organized training storms around it.
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srainhoutx
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Heavy rainfall Update from Jeff:

NWS has issued an Urban Flood Advisory for NW Harris County, Waller County, and SW Montgomery County until 130am.

Training band of heavy rainfall is developing from near Magnolia to just north of Sealy. While cell motions have been quick, training of the rainfall is yielding nearly .75 to 1.0 of an inch in 30 minutes over NW Harris and portions of Waller County as recorded by HCFCD gages near Waller recently.

Influx of deep tropical moisture and unstable air mass spreading inland over the coastal counties will eventually collide with this increasing line at some point around midnight. Hourly rainfall rates may increase into the 2-3 inch range with isolated storm totals potential pushing 4-5 inches in a couple of hours. Thus far rainfall rates have been manageable, but trends point to more sustained and organized banding features overnight which may yield high rates and approach/exceed flash flood guidance over portions of the area resulting in rapid rises on area watersheds.

Amounts greater than 3.0 inches in an hour or two across NW Harris County would be of concern given already saturated conditions.

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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jasons2k
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Looks like heavy rain is moving in. Be safe everyone.
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StormOne
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HRRR runs concern me. However, I do think the worst should be out of the metro by morning commute time, so hopefully that gives any street flooding time to drain.

Pro tip: If water gets into your tailpipe and into the engine, your car will break and will be impossible to fix. Think about that next time you drive into flood waters!
A transplant from Houston to Lincoln, Nebraska.
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djjordan
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Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1138 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2017

TXC157-201-339-473-080730-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0205.170808T0438Z-170808T0730Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Montgomery TX-Fort Bend TX-Waller TX-Harris TX-
1138 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
South central Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Waller County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 230 AM CDT.

* At 1135 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This can cause minor flooding in
the advisory area. A gauge at Katy has reported two inches of rain
in the past hour, and an inch in the past 15 minutes. Other
locations in Harris County have reported in excess of an inch of
rain in the past hour.

* Some locations that will experience heavy rain include...
Katy, Tomball, Jersey Village, Brookshire, The Woodlands, western
Addicks Park Ten, Oak Ridge North, Fulshear, Pattison, The
Woodlands Pavillion, Hooks Airport, Cinco Ranch, Willowbrook,
Cypress and northern Weston Lakes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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srainhoutx
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Urban Flood Advisory Update from Jeff:

Urban Flood Advisory issued for portions of Fort Bend, western Harris, Waller, and southern Montgomery Counties until 230am.

Band of heavy rainfall producing rainfall rates of 1-2 inches an hour extends from Conroe to Tomball to Katy moving ENE at 20mph while cells along the line move NNE at 20-25mph. Fast forward motions have kept rainfall totals thus far in the 1-2 inch range over a 1-2 hour period which can be handled. Brief periods of cell training has resulted in a quick 1-1.5 inches in 30 minutes or less under the most intense cells. Recent cells over Katy have produce 1 inch of rainfall in 15 minutes.

Overall cell motions should limit rainfall amounts to 1-3 inches over the next several hours. Will have to watch influx of deep moisture now approaching US 59 for more enhanced cell mergers and potential for backbuilding of the main band across portions of Fort Bend and Austin Counties which could result in a period of cell training.

Position of mid level low pressure center just north of Brenham continues to favor the SE flank of the circulation for the heavy rainfall production which is generally along or about 30 miles either side of US 59 currently.

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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djjordan
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Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1218 AM CDT TUE AUG 8 2017

TXC157-201-339-080815-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0206.170808T0518Z-170808T0815Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Montgomery TX-Fort Bend TX-Harris TX-
1218 AM CDT TUE AUG 8 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Southeastern Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
North central Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 315 AM CDT.

* At 1218 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in
the advisory area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Northeastern Sugar Land, Bellaire, Humble, West University Place,
Jacinto City, Jersey Village, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill
Village, Piney Point Village, Downtown Houston, Greenway / Upper
Kirby Area, Kingwood, Spring Branch North, Second Ward, Greater
Greenspoint, Spring, Greater Heights, Mission Bend, Neartown /
Montrose and Memorial Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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