August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The latest HWRF OUTPUT

[Scott747]

0z euro is vitrually identical to the 0z gfs at hr 96.

[Belmer]

Anyone see HWRF dumping 60 inches of rain in Houston. That's more than our YEARLY average.

Where are you seeing that?

He's referring to this tweet -

[javakah]

The Euro is looking a bit worse so far as well (although at least not bringing a high end TS/Cat1 right across Sugar Land/Katy as the GFS did in the last run). Mainly in that it looks like it wants to graze Galveston more slowly.

[869MB]

This is a great illustration to show you just how quickly a forecast can change during a hurricane season...

THE HGX FORECAST FROM LAST SATURDAY...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
349 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Hot conditions have again settled across Southeast Texas this
afternoon with 3 PM CDT temperatures in the mid to upper 90s
inland and upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast. Have seen a few
heat index values reach 108 this afternoon but given the brief
and isolated nature of these observations, decided to continue to
hold off on heat advisory. Heat will continue to be a concern
through the remainder of the afternoon however and residents
should still continue to take precautions, especially if working
or playing outdoors. Isolated showers (and even a few
thunderstorms) have developed both along the sea breeze located
across Matagorda, Brazoria, Galveston, and Chambers Counties this
afternoon with additional convection firing up within a plume of
deeper moisture north and northeast of the Houston metro.

Expect this activity to linger through sunset with dry conditions
again overnight. Light winds and clear skies should allow for
some patchy fog development west and southwest of Houston tonight
with overnight lows only in the mid 70s to low 80s. Sunday will be
fairly similar to today with high humidity and heat resulting in
borderline Heat Advisory conditions. However, expect slightly
greater shower and thunderstorm coverage than today (20-30 PoPs)
along and east of Interstate 45 as a plume of deeper moisture over
southern Louisiana and far eastern Texas is advected into the
region... with a few showers across the coastal counties again
along the sea breeze. Dry but humid conditions are expected again
inland Sunday night, but increasing moisture as an upper
disturbance approaches from the east may result in isolated
showers spreading across the coastal waters during the overnight
hours.

Afternoon water vapor imagery shows this tropical upper
tropospheric trough (TUTT) located over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. The approach of this feature is expected to result in
scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms across the region
during the first half of the upcoming week, before upper ridging
builds back across Texas in the wake of a Great Lakes upper trough
and shunts the TUTT towards Mexico mid-week. A backdoor cold
front associated with the upper trough may reach the region late
in the week (Thursday or Friday) and result in rain chances
continuing through the end of the work week. Increased rain
chances and cloud cover won`t completely end the heat across the
region but should result in highs a few degrees cooler than what
was observed this weekend.

Former Tropical Storm Harvey has weakened to a tropical
depression, but Harvey is expected to continue to make westward
progress towards the Yucatan Peninsula over the next few days.
Harvey may restrengthen east of the Yucatan as it encounters
weaker mid and upper level shear, but land interactions with the
Yucatan may affect additional development with Harvey as it
approaches the Bay of Campeche by the middle of the upcoming week.
Harvey poses no threat to Texas at this time, but is a good
reminder to make sure that tropical preparedness is a priority as
the region gets ready to enter the climatological peak of
hurricane season.

Huffman



THE HGX FORECAST FROM THURSDAY EVENING & THURSDAY NIGHT...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1043 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
...Devastating and life threatening flooding expected from a
prolonged heavy rain and flooding threat from Harvey...

Harvey has undergone an eyewall replacement and the rapid
intensification slowing. One of Harvey`s spiral bands moving into
the coastal areas around 1030 pm this evening. Winds gradually
increasing this evening and expect seas to build quickly overnight
becoming dangerous Friday. Showers should become more numerous
toward morning along with gustier winds across the inland areas.

Harvey track only has very minor changes with no significant
changes to the forecast for Southeast Texas with this update.


Hurricane Center intends to start hour position updates at
midnight.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017/

AVIATION...
A bit more coverage across SE TX this afternoon/evening as act-
ivity associated with Hurricane Harvey begins to move into the
region. Timing these bands will be the main issue for the over-
night hours, but did try to incorporate a brief break in spots
for most sites except for GLS. Otherwise...did go with prevail-
ing TSRA and increased winds/gusts by tomorrow afternoon. 41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017/

.Devastating and life-threatening flooding expected from a
prolonged heavy rain and flash flood threat from Harvey...

The outer rain bands of Hurricane Harvey were already affecting
Southeast Texas at 5:00 PM. These will continue to affect the
area tonight and Friday. Squalls with heavy rainfall are expected
to become more numerous along the coast Friday morning and then
spread inland during the day. Squalls and rain bands will then
become more numerous and spread inland Friday night and Saturday
as Harvey moves onshore down the coast--somewhere on the middle
Texas coast.

Models continue to show the circulation of Harvey caught up in the
weakness in the upper subtropical high pressure ridge over the
weekend and into early next week. With the storm or its remnants
persisting near or over the area, a prolonged heavy rainfall and
flash flood threat could lead to devastating flooding. There is a
potential for five-day rainfall totals between tonight and Tuesday
morning of 15 to 25 inches with even higher isolated amounts.
Needless to say, persons throughout Southeast Texas should monitor
the latest bulletins and forecasts regarding the storm.

Upped rain chances across the area during the middle part of the
upcoming week. The models show upper levels point conducive for
an unstable and moist airmass overhead of Southeast Texas through
Wednesday and Thursday.

40

MARINE...
As has been discussed earlier today, deteriorating marine
conditions can be expected tonight and Friday as Hurricane Harvey
approaches the middle Texas coast. Swells from the storm will
start this afternoon and build to 7 feet or more tonight. This
will be followed by a continued wind, sea, surge, and tide
increase into the landfall of the storm. Water levels, seas, and
winds will likely remain elevated well into the first part of the
upcoming week as Harvey or its remnants remain near or just inland
of the Texas coast.

Here are the best estimates of marine-related impacts and decision
points based on what we know as of 5:00 PM:

* Onset of 7+ foot seas -- Tonight
* Onset of tropical storm force winds within 20 NM -- daytime
Friday (especially west of Freeport)
* Onset of coastal flood threat -- Friday
* Reasonable worst case surge -- 7 to 11 feet above ground near
landfall, 3 to 5 feet from San Luis Pass to High Island
* High risk of rip currents and building surf beginning tonight
* Discharge from elevated rivers and continued elevated water
levels may continue to impact navigation through the weekend
through early next week.

47/40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 90 75 81 73 / 40 50 60 80 70
Houston (IAH) 77 86 77 81 75 / 40 60 80 80 80
Galveston (GLS) 79 85 79 84 79 / 60 80 80 80 80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Hurricane Warning for the following zones: Jackson...Matagorda.

Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Austin...
Brazoria...Chambers...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston...
Harris...Liberty...Waller...Wharton.

Flash Flood Watch from 4 AM CDT Friday through Monday morning
for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria...Brazos...
Burleson...Chambers...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston...
Grimes...Harris...Jackson...Liberty...Matagorda...
Montgomery...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...Hurricane Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...
Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters
from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

[Scott747]

Pick your poison....

Oz gfs. - After stalling around corpus for a few days it emerges back in the, regains hurricane status, has a 2nd landfall around Sargent and rides up 288 for a visit through Houston before exiting out next Friday.

0z euro - Same as gfs through hour 96 but insteads rides up along the coast as a healthy cat 2 and through sabine pass around Thursday.

Fun times ahead

[Andrew]

Pick your poison....

Oz gfs. - After stalling around corpus for a few days it emerges back in the, regains hurricane status, has a 2nd landfall around Sargent and rides up 288 for a visit through Houston before exiting out next Friday.

0z euro - Same as gfs through hour 96 but insteads rides up along the coast as a healthy cat 2 and through sabine pass around Thursday.

Fun times ahead

GFS would be the worst situation for those in Houston and north of the immediate coastline. Then again, the ECMWF is trending towards that direction but would be stronger. Either way a lot of rain but maybe some higher than expected winds could be thrown into the mix. What is crazy about this though is this storm is expected to stick around until Wednesday or even Thursday of next week!

[srainhoutx]

Hurricane Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
300 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...3 AM CDT POSITION ESTIMATE...

SUMMARY OF 300 AM CDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 95.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[srainhoutx]

Offshore Rig Reports starting to come in:

Gunnison = 52 Kts
East Break = 51 Kts

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...HURRICANE HARVEY DANGEROUSLY APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 95.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 95.4 West. Harvey is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, Harvey will make landfall on the middle Texas coast
tonight or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely to meander near or
just inland of the middle Texas coast through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible, and Harvey is expected to
become a major hurricane before it reaches the middle Texas coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by NOAA and Air Force planes
was 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over
the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During
the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 7 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas
Hill Country eastward through central and southwest Louisiana, with
accumulations of up to 7 inches extending into other parts of Texas
and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey will cause
devastating and life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning
area late Friday and Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area
later this morning. These conditions are likely to persist
into Saturday in portions of the hurricane and tropical storm
warning area.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey will begin to affect the
Texas, Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts later this morning.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible across portions of the
middle and upper Texas coast on Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Andrew]

Recon found extrapolated pressure of 954mb

[srainhoutx]

Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

The satellite presentation has improved during the past several
hours with an intermittent eye feature surrounded by a ring of very
deep convection. There are various cyclonically curved convective
bands primarily to the north of the eye and the outflow is fair.
NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes penetrated the eye
various times during the past several hours, and the most
significant data were a flight-level peak wind of 103 knots, and a
peak SFMR surface wind of 88 kt. The central pressure dropped
to 967 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity was adjusted
upward to 90 kt. Another reconnaissance plane will be in the eye of
Harvey shortly.

Since Harvey is embedded within light shear and moving over warm
waters, additional strengthening is anticipated before landfall in
about 24 hours. Thereafter, gradual weakening is forecast but since
a good portion of the circulation will remain over water, the
weakening process could be slower than normal.

Radar and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Harvey is moving toward
the northwest or 320 degrees at 8 kt. The hurricane is on the
western edge of a persistent area of high pressure over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico, and this pattern will maintain the current hurricane
motion until landfall. Once Harvey is inland over Texas, the
steering currents are forecast to collapse and the cyclone should
begin to meander, prolonging the flooding conditions for several
days. The track guidance between now and landfall is very consistent
and there is high confidence in the track forecast. After landfall,
the track models show large variability and the confidence is low.
In any case, NHC forecast depicts a slow moving tropical cyclone
near or over Texas for the next five days.

Once again, it is very critical that users not focus on the exact
forecast track of Harvey, since cycle-to-cycle adjustments are
likely. All locations within the hurricane and storm surge warning
areas should be preparing for the possibility of major
hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall, bringing
life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions
of the Texas coast. Preparations to protect life and property should
be completed this morning, as tropical-storm-force winds will first
arrive in the hurricane and storm surge warning areas later today.

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12
feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of
areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at
hurricanes.gov.

3. Devastating and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, from today through next
Wednesday. Please refer to products from your local National Weather
Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more
information on the flooding hazard.

4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC
website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -
the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being
exceeded at each individual location. This map best represents
the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and
warning areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 25.9N 95.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 26.9N 96.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 28.0N 97.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 28.5N 97.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/0600Z 28.5N 97.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 28/0600Z 28.3N 97.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/0600Z 28.5N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 30/0600Z 29.5N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

[srainhoutx]

As we can all see, The NHC is increasing their concern regarding what happens after landfall and the stall or meandering near or just inland of Texas Coast begins and how long will this stall happen before Harvey begins to be nudged East to ENE paralleling the Middle and Upper Texas Coast before a second landfall near Galveston early morning next Wednesday. There is a great deal of uncertainty of how strong Harvey will be once it reenters the Gulf and does it strengthen as some of the guidance suggest.

Historic and Life Threatening inland flooding is becoming more likely as the deterministic guidance same the Canadian agree on this generally ENE motion and Harvey may not lose enough of its strength to degenerate to a Tropical Storm. In fact, many of the Intensity Guidance suggest that Harvey may well be a Hurricane approaching Galveston from the WSW. To the right of where Harvey makes its first landfall, Gulf water will continue to pile into the Upper Texas Coast and into Galveston Bay for a prolonged period. Inland Flooding will be occurring beginning Saturday and continue and possibly increase Monday into Tuesday across our Region. Ground will saturate Saturday further leading to Flooding concerns as rain bands rotate across SE Texas for at least 5 days, possibly longer. WPC Forecaster Roth stated yesterday after the afternoon 7 Day QPF graphic was issued that this is the highest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast ever issued by the HPS/WPC in its office history and it could easily be double the amount they were forecasting at that time.

Our Partners at NWS Houston/Galveston has asked us to hit hard on this dangerous and potentially Historic multiday prolonged Heavy Rainfall Event. Feeder Bands for the new comer to Tropical System are bands very heavy rain band and tropical thunderstorms that move in from the Gulf of Mexico along the East side of Harvey as winds will be out of the SE to ESE to E with a center of Harvey to our SW, near Rockport. Those rain bands or feeder bands that rotate in toward the center of the main circulation can drop 3 to 5 inches per hour rainfall rates. It is possible that we could see 2 to 3 distinct rain bands. This is where the forecast become very tricky. We may now know until 3 to 6 hours prior to the rain band events exactly where (what locations) will receive those potentially heavy rainfall events. These will be repeated daily until Harvey is well inland for the final time and begins to dissipate.

The bottom line is we will have water flowing into our Coastal Bays and Channels for several days and rainwater trying to head South toward the Gulf of Mexico from our inland flooding via our Creeks, Bayous and streams. Our rainwater drainage systems may become filled to capacity as water piles up in Galveston Bay and at the Mouth of our Rivers attempting to empty into the Gulf. Take all precautions to protect life and property today. Tomorrow and Sunday may be too late before Harvey pays a visit to SE Texas and SW Louisiana on Tuesday.

Edit to add: The New Updated 7 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast has been issued and as you notice, there are no inches of rainfall provided other than great the 20 inches with the color graph on the left side of the Graphic. That speaks volumes that they expect near or Historic Flooding from Harvey across our Region. Stay Safe Folks and please heed all the new information that will be forthcoming throughout the day from our Emergency Management, Local, County, State, NWS, NHC and other Federal Government Officials.

[srainhoutx]

4:50AM Friday Update from Jeff:

This is focused to those individuals in the mandatory evacuation areas of:

Calhoun, Refugio, Aransas, San Patricio, Nueces, Jackson, and Matagorda Counties

I have been to your lunch meetings and presented at your conferences, many of you have been on this mailing list for years and have come to trust what I say and the forecast produced.

This is “that storm”, this is “the storm” with only comparisons to Celia (1970) and Carla (1961) for your region. You face one of the most difficult decisions of your life, to stay or leave and for some the landfall of this hurricane will be a defining life moment broken into before and after Harvey. The reality is that some of you will lose everything you own in the next 24 hours, entire homes will be washed away and destroyed by the storm surge.

You must leave, you cannot be in the storm surge inundation zones when Harvey moves ashore…the sea water is going to rise 8-12 feet above the ground in some of these counties along with battering waves that will beat structures to collapse. The coastline will forever be changed in the next 24 hours. You must make the correct decision and complete your preparations immediately and move inland. I am pleading with you to evacuate those areas under mandatory evacuation orders.

[ticka1]

Looks like feeder bands coming onshore early this morning. Will there be flooding rains today?

[Katdaddy]

Dangerous Hurricane Harvey has sustained winds of 105MPH and moving toward the Middle TX Coast. About 24hrs of intensification before landfall with widespread flooding rains across S, S Central, and SE TX as well as SW LA. Radar shows a well defined eye this morning with feeder bands moving across the Middle and Upper TX Coast. .53” this morning at the house and just the beginning.

[cisa]

Travel conditions in the northern counties should be ok today, right?

[Rhodesk75]

Soooo.... is anyone else totally aggravated by the fact that we are hearing ** NOTHING** about Brazoria County (other than yesterday's evac of the beaches)? It's ALL about Corpus, Matagorda, Galveston....heck, even Louisiana is issuing some evacuations. Everyone AROUND us is being discussed, but basically nothing ABOUT us. The fact that I'm only 8 miles "inland" from Surfside has me unsure what we need to be doing. I mean, we're "prepared" with supplies, everything is put up, tied down, etc. But I need to know abut our SAFETY! According to the Lake Jackson FB page (I don't live in LJ, by the way), the City NOR the County are supplying or suggesting sandbags. But....***WHHHHYYYYY**?????

[srainhoutx]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
502 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...Devastating and life threatening flooding event expected from
a prolonged heavy rainfall event from Harvey...

.DISCUSSION...
Dangerous Hurricane Harvey continues heading toward the middle Texas
coast (moving northwest near 9 mph at NHC's 4 AM advisory) with a landfall
expected tonight or early Saturday. Get the latest watch and warning
information in the WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES section below. Strengthening
continues (central pressure down to 958 millibars on NHC's 5 AM Tropical
Cyclone Update), and Harvey is expected to be a major hurricane at
landfall. Outer rain bands are currently moving across our coastal
waters and coastal counties. Some individual cells in the bands have
been showing some weak rotation, and as Harvey gets closer to the
coast conditions are expected to become more favorable as the day
progresses and on into the overnight hours and on through Saturday
for an increasing risk of tornadoes and damaging winds with the
stronger cells (see SPC's Day 1 and Day 2 Convective Outlooks for
more details). Increasing tide levels and storm surge can be expected
today and tonight as Harvey heads to the coast and makes landfall
with the highest values in and around the Matagorda Bay area.
Rainfall rates will be on the increase too (approaching greater
than 4 inches per hour with training cells) as precipitable water
values rise above 2.5 inches and remain in a 2.5 to 3 inch range
across a large parts of the area throughout the weekend and on
into at least the start of next week as Harvey meanders around the
middle to upper Texas coastal areas. The Flash Flood Watch went
into effect this morning and is currently in effect through Monday
morning. Devastating and life threatening flooding can be expected
where the greatest training sets up with this prolonged heavy rainfall
event with widespread rainfall totals of 15 to 25 inches and isolated
totals around 35 inches! 42

[srainhoutx]

Hurricane Harvey Local Statement Advisory Number 20
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL092017
437 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

This product covers Southeast Texas

**HURRICANE HARVEY DANGEROUSLY APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect
for Chambers and Harris
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Austin, Colorado,
Fort Bend, Liberty, Waller, and Wharton
- A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
Jackson and Matagorda
- A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
for Brazoria and Galveston

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 240 miles south of Galveston TX or about 210 miles south
of Freeport TX
- 25.9N 95.4W
- Storm Intensity 105 mph
- Movement Northwest or 320 degrees at 9 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Category 2 Harvey is forecast to continue strengthening and will
most likely become a major hurricane before it makes landfall along
the Middle Texas Coast overnight Friday night. The primary impact from
Harvey over Southeast Texas remains prolonged significant heavy
rainfall that will induce extreme widespread flooding across Southeast
Texas Friday through the beginning of next week. Tropical storm force
winds, with occasional hurricane force wind gusts, and storm surge
will occur along the coast as early as late Friday afternoon and
persist through Tuesday. Coastal flooding due to storm surge and wave
run up will remain an issue throughout the weekend and into the
beginning of next week as strong onshore winds will continue to pile
water up along the coastline. Again, the primary emphasis and greatest
threat to life and property will be the extreme rainfall amounts that
will likely lead to a potentially catastrophic and prolonged flash
flooding event.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
devastating impacts across the southern counties of southeastern
Texas.

Potential impacts include:
- Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood control
systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away.
- Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
or washed out.


* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible devastating
impacts across coastal southeastern Texas.

Potential impacts in this area include:
- Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
stressed.
- Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
- Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
- Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
onshore and stranded.


* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating
impacts across the southern counties of southeastern Texas.

Potential impacts in this area include:
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.


* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across Southeast Texas.

Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
For those under evacuation orders, leave as soon as practical with a
destination in mind. Gas up your vehicle well ahead of time. Be sure
that you take all essential materials from your emergency supplies kit.
Let others know where you are going and when you intend to arrive.

If evacuating the area, stick to prescribed evacuation routes. Look
for additional traffic information on roadway smart signs and listen to
select radio channels for further travel instructions. Drivers should
not use cell phones while operating vehicles.

For those not under evacuation orders, understand that there are
inherent risks to evacuation (such as traffic congestion, accidents,
and driving in bad weather), so evacuate only if necessary. Help keep
roadways open for those that are under evacuation orders.

If you are exceptionally vulnerable to wind or water hazards from
tropical systems, consider voluntary evacuation, especially if being
officially recommended. Relocate to a predetermined shelter or safe
destination.

If evacuating away from the area or relocating to a nearby shelter,
leave early before weather conditions become hazardous.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to bring to completion all preparations to protect
life and property in accordance with your emergency plan.

Outside preparations should be wrapped up as soon as possible before
weather conditions completely deteriorate. Any remaining evacuations
and relocations should be expedited before the onset of tropical
storm force wind.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible. If
heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or own a
pet. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.
Check the latest weather forecast before departing.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Check-in with your emergency points of contact among family, friends,
and workmates. Inform them of your status and well-being. Let them
know how you intend to ride out the storm and when you plan to
check-in again.

Keep cell phones well charged and handy. Also, cell phone chargers
for automobiles can be helpful after the storm. Locate your chargers
and keep them with your cell phone.

In emergencies it is best to remain calm. Stay informed and focused
on the situation at hand. Exercise patience with those you encounter.
Be a Good Samaritan and helpful to others.

If relocating to a nearby shelter or to the home of a family member
or friend, drive with extra caution, especially on secondary roads.
Remember, many bridges and causeways will be closed once higher winds
arrive. Also, if you encounter water covering the road, seek an
alternate route. Always obey official road signs for closures and
detours.

If you are a visitor and still in the area, listen for the name of
the city or town in which you are staying within local news updates.
Be sure you know the name of the county or parish in which it
resides. Pay attention for instructions from local authorities.

Closely monitor NOAA Weather radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to
the forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Houston/Galveston TX around 1030 AM CDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.