August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Rip76
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Press Conference shortly about it.
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srainhoutx
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MagtheWeatherAg wrote:So, I've been silently following this board for about a year now. I'm no weather expert by any means, but a weather nerd/lover through and through. I hesitated to post even now, but I felt the need. I am stuck overseas right now for work, far away from my family, friends, and home. This board has kept me informed and ahead of the game in quite a few instances, so that I could pass on crucial information to my family. I moved my parents in with me when I moved to Spring, and my dad just had his knee replaced on the 17th, so I have felt guilty and lost throughout this storm for not being there. So, all the blubbering aside, my deepest and sincerest thanks to all who post and share information, it means more than you could ever know.
Welcome and we are happy you posted. That's why we are here. Neighbors helping Neighbors with reliable and accurate information to keep you and your families safe when Weather Worries come our way.
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davidiowx
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Rip76 wrote:Press Conference shortly about it.
I don't have cable service or internet it's out. Could you please provide cliff notes? Thank you so much.
Andrew
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davidiowx wrote:Does anyone have an update on the addicks situation? I'm at memorial and Eldridge intersection and my place and vehicles are completely gone and the water keeps rising. Any update would be nice. Thank you.
Addicks is currently at the 108.73'. It is expected to crest at ~110'. Flooding is going around the northern edge of the reservoir and will continue to do that for the next several days. They do not expect an overflow of the actual levee.
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txsnowmaker
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Nothing against the Army Corps official at this press conference, but given all the implications and the unprecedented nature of what we're dealing with, I would feel much better to see someone much higher up from the Corps down here monitoring and informing the public about the latest with the reservoirs and what might or might not happen in the hours and days ahead.
Last edited by txsnowmaker on Tue Aug 29, 2017 2:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
prospects8903
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Getting hammered in Port Arthur very strong constant rain and 45 mph winds
Baseballdude2915
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55" here in Dickinson for the event. I live off Deats road and it was absolutely horrible. The road had 6 feet of water in spots. Unfortunately 8" of water made it into my house, however houses just two streets over on lower elevations had over 5 feet! The sight and sound of bay boats, jetskis, helicopters and airboats going down the road rescuing for the past 3 days will never leave me. Glad to be safe and totally dry now. However last nights rain has the roads impassable except by boat, so we are sitting tight until tonight for a few hours until we should be able to drive. Hope all the old .z forum members are safe as well!
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srainhoutx
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08292017 mcd0761.gif
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0761
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
232 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX...EXT SOUTHWEST LA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 291845Z - 300045Z

SUMMARY...CONVERGENCE/DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS
CONVECTION WITH NEGLIGIBLE MOTIONS/BACKBUILDING CONTINUING ONGOING
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E/16 VISIBLE IMAGERY LOOP DEPICTS SHORT-TERM
TIGHTENING OF THE FLOW GRADIENT ALONG THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE COASTAL
REGION OF TX AS A LOBE OF THE INNER CORE HAS LIFTED NORTH AS THE
OVERALL CENTER ELONGATES N-S. AS SUCH WSR-88D FROM LCH/HGX HAVE
DENOTED RECENT UPTICK IN RAIN RATES NEAR THE CHAMBERS COAST AND
ACROSS ORANGE AND S JASPER/NEWTON COUNTIES. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
FLUX AND DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE COLUMN THE POTENTIAL FOR
3+"/HR RATES FOR A HOUR OR SO WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST.

LARGER SCALE PATTERN PER GOES-16 SUITE OF 3 WV CHANNELS DEPICT A
LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY/SPEED MINIMA OVER SOUTHERN TX DESCENDING
SOUTH POTENTIALLY INCREASING STRETCHING OF THE LARGER SCALE HARVEY
VORTEX FURTHER SW WITH TIME POTENTIALLY SLOWING EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE CENTER AS A WHOLE FOR THE NEXT 5-6HRS.
LAND/SEA DIFFERENCES OF LATENT HEAT AVAILABILITY HAS LEAD TO AN
EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST FROM GALVESTON BAY
ALONG THE UPPER TX/LA COAST...SOUTH OF WHICH AMPLE INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE TO ASCEND ISENTROPICALLY BACK WEST TOWARD THE
DEFORMATION/CONVERGENCE ZONE AROUND THE SABINE RIVER. THIS APPEARS
IN LINE WITH CURRENT 12Z ARW AND NAM-CONEST RUNS WHICH (ACCOUNTING
FOR NAM-CONEST TYPICAL OVER ESTIMATION) WOULD SUGGEST AN
ADDITIONAL 4-6" ACROSS THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE KEEPING FLASH FLOODING
LIKELY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WESTWARD EXTENT
(NSSL-WRF/HRRRV3)...WHICH AT THIS TIME THAT MAY PLACE THE HOUSTON
METRO WITHIN THE RAINFALL MAXIMA THROUGH 00Z WHILE NOT FAVORED
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

FURTHER EAST (LA)...DISTANCE FROM THE SOURCE AS WELL AS SOME DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE DRY SLOT ACROSS THE CENTRAL LA COAST
SHIFTING NW THEN WEST IS LIKELY TO INHIBIT THE EXTREME RATES
NEARER THE COAST IN SE TX/FAR SW LA (REDUCED CONVECTIVE
VERTICALITY...DEPTH OF RAINFALL GENERATION) ACROSS CENTRAL LA.
ALSO VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SHALLOW CU BANDS IN THE EASTERN
HEMISPHERE OF HARVEY'S LLC ARE NUMEROUS AND ILL-FOCUSED. AS SUCH
ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTRAL LA COAST SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND INTERMITTENT STILL POSE SOME RISK BUT DURATION WILL
BE QUITE SHORT AND SHOULD ONLY AFFECT ALREADY ONGOING FLOODING
ISSUES...AND AS SUCH IS NOT INCORPORATED IN THE AREA OF CONCERN AT
THIS TIME.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Baseballdude2915 wrote:55" here in Dickinson for the event. I live off Deats road and it was absolutely horrible. The road had 6 feet of water in spots. Unfortunately 8" of water made it into my house, however houses just two streets over on lower elevations had over 5 feet! The sight and sound of bay boats, jetskis, helicopters and airboats going down the road rescuing for the past 3 days will never leave me. Glad to be safe and totally dry now. However last nights rain has the roads impassable except by boat, so we are sitting tight until tonight for a few hours until we should be able to drive. Hope all the old .z forum members are safe as well!
If verified, you may have the misfortune of an all-time rainfall record. It's also close to the most dire model prediction of someone getting 60 inches. Hope you and everyone you know are safe.
ticka1
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unome wrote:http://www.texasmonthly.com/burka-blog/ ... im-friday/

Here’s Why You Should File a Hurricane Harvey Insurance Claim Before Friday
A new insurance law taking effect lowers the penalty on insurance companies for slow storm damage payments.

By R.G. RatcliffeAugust 28, 2017
i know this is plastered all over facebook - it will not be the end of thebworld if you dont. why add more stress to folks that have so much in their lives right now.
ticka1
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Being here on the east side in baytown -will we have another night of heavy rains? Sleeping at night has become very difficult.
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srainhoutx
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
244 PM CDT TUE AUG 29 2017

Galveston TX-Montgomery TX-Fort Bend TX-Brazoria TX-Chambers TX-
Liberty TX-Polk TX-Harris TX-
244 PM CDT TUE AUG 29 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Eastern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
Chambers County in southeastern Texas...
Liberty County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Polk County in southeastern Texas...
Eastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1145 PM CDT Tuesday.

* At 243 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
that heavy rain was falling over the area. The heavy rain will
cause flooding.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Pasadena, Pearland, League City, Baytown, Missouri City, Galveston
Island West End, Galveston Causeway, Texas City, Friendswood, La
Porte, Deer Park, northeastern Lake Jackson, Alvin, Angleton,
Dickinson, Stafford, South Houston, Bellaire, Humble and West
University Place.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying
spots.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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snowman65
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I'm over here in Orange. I haven't seen anything lately on the storms location, speed, direction, track, etc?
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GBinGrimes
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Looking back through this thread...wow. From Friday August 18. This one really hits home.

This is why we look to the forecasts of weather and are so blessed to have the pro mets here that talk to us about it, explain it and let us know what could POSSIBLY happen so we can be prepared IF it happens.

Winter, anyone?
srainhoutx wrote:Well the 00Z ECMWF decided to throw a curveball with Harvey tonight for those of us along the Texas/ SW Louisiana Coast. Certainly not an exact track and intensity forecast that we should take as Gospel 10 days out, but it serves as a reminder that anytime we get a Tropical System cruising through the Caribbean, we need to get an eye on forecast trends over the next 5 days or so.
unome
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omg.. the sun is peaking out & a jet just flew over ! they both felt so foreign...

hope is a good thing...
Ounce
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snowman65 wrote:I'm over here in Orange. I haven't seen anything lately on the storms location, speed, direction, track, etc?
000
WTNT34 KNHC 292039
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017

...HARVEY CRAWLING TOWARD THE COAST DUMPING CATASTROPHIC RAINS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 94.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM SW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Holly Beach to Morgan
City Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Holly Beach to Morgan City

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Bolivar to west of Holly Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Port O'Connor to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Morgan City to Grand Isle

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana. Please see warnings
and other products issued by your local National Weather Service
office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 12 to 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
estimated from data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane near
latitude 29.2 North, longitude 94.3 West. Harvey is moving toward
the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue tonight and tomorrow. On the forecast track,
the broad circulation center of Harvey is expected to move inland
over the northwestern Gulf Coast within the tropical storm warning
area by early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant change in strength is anticipated before the center
crosses the coast, but gradual weakening should begin thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center. Galveston recently reported a sustained wind of
39 mph and a gust to 54 mph.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reconnaissance
plane was 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches to the north and east of Houston
from far east Texas into southwestern Louisiana. Isolated storm
totals will reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including
the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area. These rains are currently
producing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding over large
portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE.
DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and
products issued by your local National Weather Service office for
additional information on this life-threatening situation.

Elsewhere, Harvey is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5
to 10 inches across portions of southern Louisiana into coastal
Mississippi and Alabama. Rainfall associated with Harvey will spread
north by mid to late week, with rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches
spreading into portions of Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley.

A preliminary report from a rain gauge has broken the Texas tropical
cyclone rainfall record. The Cedar Bayou gauge, east of Highlands,
Texas, has reported 51.88 inches of rain as of 3 PM CDT. This total
is higher than the previous record of 48 inches set during tropical
cyclone Amelia of 1978 at Medina, Texas.

A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center can be found at:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Holly Beach to Morgan City...2 to 4 ft
San Luis Pass to west of Holly Beach including Galveston Bay...1 to
3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
the warning area along the coast and are likely to persist
during the next day or so. Tropical storms conditions are
possible within the watch area within the next 24 hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are still affecting the coasts of
Texas and Louisiana. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today from extreme
southeast Texas across parts of southern Louisiana, coastal
Mississippi and coastal Alabama.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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snowman65
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I keep watching the radar and it sure looks to me like this thing is moving due East.....js
Electric Lizard
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I live in the Energy Corridor and the water is coming my up through the storm drains. Jeff said that the reservoirs released won't raise Buffalo bayou, but it looks like it is. Does anyone know what's going on? Getting a little desperate.
davidiowx
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Electric Lizard wrote:I live in the Energy Corridor and the water is coming my up through the storm drains. Jeff said that the reservoirs released won't raise Buffalo bayou, but it looks like it is. Does anyone know what's going on? Getting a little desperate.

This please. The bayou is clearly rising.
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srainhoutx
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There will be a presser from Amry Corp Engineer and I believe @ 7 PM. The City of Houston Press briefing going on now stated they are increasing the discharge from Barker to 14000 cfs and an additional increase to 16000 cfs. I want to here this from the Jeff briefing. I have seen via media live reporting of Metro Busses gathering on HWY 6 with a sizeable Police Presence.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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