August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

[Ptarmigan]

August is coming up. August is when hurricane season starts to heat up.

Some of the most devastating hurricanes occurred in August; Sea Islands (1893), San Ciriaco (1899), Monterrey (1909), Camille (1969), David (1979), Alicia (1983), Andrew (1992), Charley (2004), Katrina (2005), Dean (2007), and Irene (2011).

There is also the August 21, 2017 Total Solar Eclipse.

[srainhoutx]

Hemispheric Indicators continue to strongly advertise a much more favorable pattern for Tropical Development in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and the Main Development Region in the North Atlantic Basin near the first of August and beyond.

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Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice · 1h1 hour ago
Here we go! One of strongest CC atmos Kelvin waves of Summer is fcst to pass Atlantic in 1st wk of August. Watch for MDR TC outbreak 8/8-20

[srainhoutx]

I continue to see a significant Hemispheric Pattern Change as we start August and continue well into early September for our Region as well as the Tropics. A very strong Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) near or slightly above 3.5 sigma above normal looks to near the Pacific Coast of Mexico and extend into the far Western Atlantic Basin as we begin August. The CCKW will continue to extend East into the Caribbean Sea and the Main Development Region (MDR) during the second week of August. There are growing indications that the Madden Julian Oscillation will become more favorable as it shifts toward Phase 8 that would coincide with the Pattern Change.

Interestingly the Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 6 to 10 and Day 8 to 14 Outlooks suggest below normal temperatures likely due to increasing cloudiness and precipitation developing across Texas. The Precipitation Outlook for the above mention extended range outlooks is also above normal. Time to start paying a bit more attention to our sensible weather, particularly the Tropic. It tis that time of year after all...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Music to my ears!!!!

[srainhoutx]

We have been monitoring the potential for a Major shift in the Hemispheric Pattern and the trends that we began seeing back in mid July look likely to come to fruition. An unusually strong Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) which assists in a rising motion in the Atmosphere which allows the up growth of Tropical Thunderstorms is heading our way next week in conjunction with favorable Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) which also indicates rising air that provides another clue of much more favorable conditions for Tropical Development. While we do not know exactly where, when and if any tropical mischief will form, the Atmospheric conditions appear to be much more favorable for potential Tropical Development across the Atlantic Basin.

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice · 1h1 hour ago
A very strong CC Kelvin wave (contours) will pass the Atlantic next week, transitioning the active MJO phase (blue shading) o/W. Hemisphere

The Ensembles are beginning to suggest the potential for TC Genesis somewhere across the Main Development Region, so an eye on the Tropics is warranted.

Also, the Climate Prediction Center Day 6 to 10 Outlook advertises below normal Temperatures and above normal Precipitation across our Region.

CPC Day 8 to 14 Outlook:

One thing we are monitoring for next week as we begin August is a stalled frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast which raises an eye in early August, particularly when we see all the parameters coming together suggesting an active and conducive weather pattern emerging. We will also need to monitor for Convective Complexes rolling South and East with a NW flow aloft as that big Heat Ridge shifts West putting us on the favorable side of the 'Ring of Fire'.

[DoctorMu]

I continue to see a significant Hemispheric Pattern Change as we start August and continue well into early September for our Region as well as the Tropics. A very strong Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) near or slightly above 3.5 sigma above normal looks to near the Pacific Coast of Mexico and extend into the far Western Atlantic Basin as we begin August. The CCKW will continue to extend East into the Caribbean Sea and the Main Development Region (MDR) during the second week of August. There are growing indications that the Madden Julian Oscillation will become more favorable as it shifts toward Phase 8 that would coincide with the Pattern Change.

07262017 twc_mjoCCKW_vp200.png

07262017 twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

Interestingly the Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 6 to 10 and Day 8 to 14 Outlooks suggest below normal temperatures likely due to increasing cloudiness and precipitation developing across Texas. The Precipitation Outlook for the above mention extended range outlooks is also above normal. Time to start paying a bit more attention to our sensible weather, particularly the Tropic. It tis that time of year after all...

07252017 610temp_new.gif

07252017 610prcp_new.gif

That looks pretty sweet right there. I'll take it!

[srainhoutx]

One more piece of the puzzle we are watching regarding the Hemispheric Pattern Change and its potential impacts regarding Tropical Development, the 00Z ECMWF EPS and its individual ensemble members suggest High Pressure remains in control of the steering flow (shown in the Red shades) and areas of Lower Pressure (shown in Blue shades) extend into the Bahamas, Western Caribbean Sea as well as the Gulf.

07292017 Mike Ventrice DF5stT5XgAA6wTp.jpg

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice · 59m59 minutes ago

Early 11-15d period is looking very interesting with regards to tropical cyclone U.S. impact risk; Atlantic ridge extension into east U.S...

[DoctorMu]

One more piece of the puzzle we are watching regarding the Hemispheric Pattern Change and its potential impacts regarding Tropical Development, the 00Z ECMWF EPS and its individual ensemble members suggest High Pressure remains in control of the steering flow (shown in the Red shades) and areas of Lower Pressure (shown in Blue shades) extend into the Bahamas, Western Caribbean Sea as well as the Gulf.

07292017 Mike Ventrice DF5stT5XgAA6wTp.jpg

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice · 59m59 minutes ago

Early 11-15d period is looking very interesting with regards to tropical cyclone U.S. impact risk; Atlantic ridge extension into east U.S...

Interesting. The Death Ridge in appears to be weak in Texas in the early part of August. That weakness we've seen on an off all summer between the ridges persists. Be prepared just in case...

[srainhoutx]

IF the overnight ECMWF and GFS are correct, a unusually strong Summer Cold Front drops South through the Plains into our Region next weekend. Instead of daytime highs in the low 100's like yesterday, we could see Highs in the low 80's and morning lows in at least the low 70's.

[mckinne63]

IF the overnight ECMWF and GFS are correct, a unusually strong Summer Cold Front drops South through the Plains into our Region next weekend. Instead of daytime highs in the low 100's like yesterday, we could see Highs in the low 80's and morning lows in at least the low 70's.

That would be awesome IF that happens. Keeping my fingers crossed.