October 2017 - Halloween Forecast/Rain Chances

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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ticka1
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After the events of the solar eclipse -hurricane harvey and his flood. Along with hurricane Irma and Maria - we need a little cooler relaxing weather.
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Ptarmigan
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Some very intense hurricanes have formed in October. This occurs in Western Caribbean where the waters are very warm and the warm water is deep.
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tireman4
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Normal Highs and Lows for October...

http://www.weather.gov/hgx/climate_iah_normals_oct
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srainhoutx
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The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 8 - 14 Outlook suggests typically what we experience as October begins. The CPC Experimental Week 3 and 4 look much the same.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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That map temp wise looks like an El Niño map more so than a borderline Niña
Team #NeverSummer
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srainhoutx
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Still no sign of that first legitimate Fall Cold Front or Blue Norther on the horizon. There are growing indications that a Western Caribbean/Central America/Eastern Pacific Monsoonal Gyre or trough starts organizing later next week. Within this large area of lower pressures we may see tropical disturbances attempt to organize in the Western Atlantic Basin as well as the Eastern Pacific. October brings a second Peak of the Hurricane Season and it is not uncommon to see Eastern Pacific Storms head NE into Mexico and Western Caribbean Storms ride up to near the Yucatan Peninsula and generally turn E to NE...but that is typical. While it is too soon to give the all clear for Texas and Louisiana for Hurricane season 2017, we are quickly headed toward that early to mid October timeframe when we can usually say our Region is safe from any further tropical mischief.
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09262017 00Z genprob_4enscon_2017092600_altg_120_240.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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snowman65
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Just curious but I have a trip to Nashville Oct 14-17. Anyone care to chime on Possible temps there for me :) Thanks!
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DoctorMu
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snowman65 wrote:Just curious but I have a trip to Nashville Oct 14-17. Anyone care to chime on Possible temps there for me :) Thanks!

October in Tennessee or the Carolinas could yield a high risk of Chamber of Commerce weather. 8-) You might see a leaf or two changing color.

Enjoy.
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srainhoutx
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Confidence slowly increasing that a favorable Hemispheric Patten develops conducive for Tropical Development in the Eastern Pacific early next week then shifting into the Western Caribbean as we near the second week of October. Will need to monitor an area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche that is festering this morning. Our 'cool front' washes out by Sunday and a return flow off the Gulf begins in earnest. The deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to 'sniff out' a potential for tropical cyclone genesis associated with a very large Central America Monsoonal Trough. This large area of lowering pressure may support several areas of vorticity capable of organizing enough to be classified at the least into a Tropical Depression.
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09272017 Global Tropical Hazards 2 Weeks DKq8fa_WsAAj0JB.jpg
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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snowman65
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Looks like this weekends cool front is losing its punch. Not surprising for a September front, but it's a start.
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