November 2017 : Quiet Weather To End The Month
Time for the November weather thread and if long range show any colder temps?
No. 
Actually, Nov 6-10th has models picking up colder than normal air in the area. Next week should be Chamber of Commerce weather and cool for Halloween. No complaints.
Actually, Nov 6-10th has models picking up colder than normal air in the area. Next week should be Chamber of Commerce weather and cool for Halloween. No complaints.
-
srainhoutx
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No sign of any cooler air returning until around the 10th, +/- a day or two when we may get some Pacific "cooler" air. I suspect we will have to wait until near or after Thanksgiving for any real shot of much colder air for our Region. The pattern looks very La Ninaish to me at this time.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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GBinGrimes
- Posts: 108
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- Location: Anderson, TX
- Contact:
May be too late in the Pacific season but still have fingers crossed for a non-land threatening, jet stream buckling typhoon. We're still nowhere close to winter but all the long range forecasts and the CPC are painting a picture of warm and dry. That is a great forecast for continued Harvey recovery efforts and in that sense I will be thankful. A couple of dense, not shallow, arctic outbreaks would still be very welcome (at least from my winter weather wish list).
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Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2502
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
An area of showers and few thunderstorms with heavy rain is moving across the Upper TX Coast this morning resulting in a messy morning commute. The SPC has a marginal risk of severe storms this morning and afternoon so be weather aware today especially along and E of I-45 from Houston to Galveston.
From the House-Gal AFD:
Cells within these areas of rain will move to the northeast, while
the whole area of rain will slowly drag eastward through the rest
of the night and today. At the same time, we`ll see diurnal
warming and some very modest cooling well aloft to add some extra
instability to the mix. Shear will continue to be high, and model
hodographs indicate some decent curvature in the lowest km for
points around the bulk of the Houston metro and east of I-45. At
the same time, warming around 800 mb as winds at that level turn
southwesterly will begin to cap off the environment. The result
will be an environment that will grow increasingly favorable for
quick, low- topped tornadoes, but that warm nose will make
potential for a storm strong enough to produce a tornado more
marginal. Indeed, SPC has a marginal risk area drawn for this area
today. Ultimately, the absolute potential for a tornado is
probably pretty low, but those in the threat area will want to
stay aware of weather conditions, as any storms that may exist
will be in a more favorable environment.
From the House-Gal AFD:
Cells within these areas of rain will move to the northeast, while
the whole area of rain will slowly drag eastward through the rest
of the night and today. At the same time, we`ll see diurnal
warming and some very modest cooling well aloft to add some extra
instability to the mix. Shear will continue to be high, and model
hodographs indicate some decent curvature in the lowest km for
points around the bulk of the Houston metro and east of I-45. At
the same time, warming around 800 mb as winds at that level turn
southwesterly will begin to cap off the environment. The result
will be an environment that will grow increasingly favorable for
quick, low- topped tornadoes, but that warm nose will make
potential for a storm strong enough to produce a tornado more
marginal. Indeed, SPC has a marginal risk area drawn for this area
today. Ultimately, the absolute potential for a tornado is
probably pretty low, but those in the threat area will want to
stay aware of weather conditions, as any storms that may exist
will be in a more favorable environment.
- Attachments
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
3.24 inches of rain last night at my place!
Team #NeverSummer
Yucky hot, humid weather for next week - closer to Ft. Meyers than College Station.
I missed some fantastic weather here, but we did see the sun 3 days in a row in Seattle!
GEFS ensemble starts seeing seasonable temperatures beginning Nov 9. GFP has a brief cool down around the 11th, then warm again.
I missed some fantastic weather here, but we did see the sun 3 days in a row in Seattle!
GEFS ensemble starts seeing seasonable temperatures beginning Nov 9. GFP has a brief cool down around the 11th, then warm again.
Everywhere I read it's a La Nina season so warm and mild here the year.....oh well.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4470
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- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 021141
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
641 AM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017
.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings cover much of SE TX early this morning. Where winds
are around 10 knots, there is little fog. Where winds are closer
to 5 knots, we are seeing some visibilities around 5 to 6 miles.
Anticipate ceilings and fog to improve beginning after sunrise
with ceilings possibly becoming VFR in the afternoon and S to SSW
winds increasing into a 10 to 15 knot and gusty range. Weakening
winds this evening and on into the overnight hours should allow
for mainly MVFR ceilings and fog to return to the area.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017/
DISCUSSION...
Hot, muggy weather can be expected for the next several days as
high pressure at the surface and aloft promote high humidity and
temperatures rising into the middle 80s in the coming days. Don`t
look for much change until a cold front arrives in the middle of
next week. Still, it doesn`t look like there will be a strong push
of colder air behind this front, with temperatures only looking to
fall to around seasonal averages. Though some low rain chances
will linger the next couple of days thanks to onshore flow,
the building ridge will likely cap off even these slight chances
for rain until the front moves through.
NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Observations around the area show that dewpoints have rebounded to
around or above 70 degrees across Southeast Texas, keeping
temperatures trapped in the lower to middle 70s. These
observations also verify the bright blue on GOES-16`s nighttime
microphysics RGB showing low clouds from roughly Houston and
farther inland. With the high dews providing such a high floor,
don`t expect these temperatures to fall much more, meaning record
high minimum temperatures are within reach. Records are explicitly
forecast for IAH and HOU, while CLL and GLS are also in the
neighborhood.
After the warm start, expect a hotter day across the area than
yesterday, with highs in the lower to middle 80s. If expected
clouds manage to break, temps would be on the higher end of that
range. These temperatures are probably safely shy of record high
values, but are decidedly warmer than the average values for early
November. On the flip side, with gently uplift on onshore winds,
there is a chance for some light showers to pop up here and there,
with probably the best chance in the eastern half of the area.
Even here, southwest flow at 850mb is likely to build a cap that
will make any showers at all more difficult to achieve, but some
isolated to scattered showers can`t be ruled out.
SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Look for more of the same tonight and Friday. In fact, the only
thing keeping Saturday from being a mirror day will be lighter
winds likely allowing for more fog around daybreak, followed by a
shortwave trough moving through Northeast Texas and diving across
Louisiana riding around a developing upper ridge to our
southwest. This may help give a slight boost to rain chances. But,
for what it`s worth, its location to our north, and guidance
showing the upper jet trailing this shortwave by a bit are reasons
for capping PoPs in the slight chance range again. But, showers
may be marginally more numerous than today.
By Saturday, the ridge will continue to build, and with the
subsidence, expectations are for continued warm temperatures,
even lower rain chances, and clouds should begin to scatter.
Temperatures Saturday are forecast for the mid 80s, and I`m
wondering if that might even be a bit pessimistic. Taking the
grids explicitly, record highs for Saturday will be safe. If this
forecast turns out to be too cool, record highs may need to be a
little more worried...
LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Sunday and Monday look like more of the same, as the 590dm line on
the 500mb chart rises to roughly I-10 by Sunday night in both the
GFS and Euro. However, the first inklings of change will be
developing over the Panhandle, as a surface low looks to develop
in the lee of the Rockies and make its way east. This low looks to
track farther south in the guidance than yesterday, more in the
Red River Valley than in the northern half of Oklahoma, but the
functional difference is ultimately pretty small. Models aren`t
quite as tight in their agreement as they were last night, but
still strong consensus for the lows trailing cold front to move
through our area on Wednesday, with little to no potential for
rain along the front. With little cold advection and winds aloft
quickly returning to west/southwest, temperatures are unlikely to
fall significantly - highs for the back half of the week are only
progged to fall into the middle to upper 70s, or very near
seasonal averages.
MARINE...
Keeping caution flags up for the offshore waters until
mid-morning due to slightly elevated winds/seas. High
pressure over the eastern United States and lower
pressure over West Texas and the Plains will maintain
an onshore flow until the next cold front arrives around
the middle of next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 85 71 86 69 86 / 10 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 84 73 85 70 85 / 20 10 20 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 80 73 81 74 81 / 30 10 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
25/42
FXUS64 KHGX 021141
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
641 AM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017
.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings cover much of SE TX early this morning. Where winds
are around 10 knots, there is little fog. Where winds are closer
to 5 knots, we are seeing some visibilities around 5 to 6 miles.
Anticipate ceilings and fog to improve beginning after sunrise
with ceilings possibly becoming VFR in the afternoon and S to SSW
winds increasing into a 10 to 15 knot and gusty range. Weakening
winds this evening and on into the overnight hours should allow
for mainly MVFR ceilings and fog to return to the area.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017/
DISCUSSION...
Hot, muggy weather can be expected for the next several days as
high pressure at the surface and aloft promote high humidity and
temperatures rising into the middle 80s in the coming days. Don`t
look for much change until a cold front arrives in the middle of
next week. Still, it doesn`t look like there will be a strong push
of colder air behind this front, with temperatures only looking to
fall to around seasonal averages. Though some low rain chances
will linger the next couple of days thanks to onshore flow,
the building ridge will likely cap off even these slight chances
for rain until the front moves through.
NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Observations around the area show that dewpoints have rebounded to
around or above 70 degrees across Southeast Texas, keeping
temperatures trapped in the lower to middle 70s. These
observations also verify the bright blue on GOES-16`s nighttime
microphysics RGB showing low clouds from roughly Houston and
farther inland. With the high dews providing such a high floor,
don`t expect these temperatures to fall much more, meaning record
high minimum temperatures are within reach. Records are explicitly
forecast for IAH and HOU, while CLL and GLS are also in the
neighborhood.
After the warm start, expect a hotter day across the area than
yesterday, with highs in the lower to middle 80s. If expected
clouds manage to break, temps would be on the higher end of that
range. These temperatures are probably safely shy of record high
values, but are decidedly warmer than the average values for early
November. On the flip side, with gently uplift on onshore winds,
there is a chance for some light showers to pop up here and there,
with probably the best chance in the eastern half of the area.
Even here, southwest flow at 850mb is likely to build a cap that
will make any showers at all more difficult to achieve, but some
isolated to scattered showers can`t be ruled out.
SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Look for more of the same tonight and Friday. In fact, the only
thing keeping Saturday from being a mirror day will be lighter
winds likely allowing for more fog around daybreak, followed by a
shortwave trough moving through Northeast Texas and diving across
Louisiana riding around a developing upper ridge to our
southwest. This may help give a slight boost to rain chances. But,
for what it`s worth, its location to our north, and guidance
showing the upper jet trailing this shortwave by a bit are reasons
for capping PoPs in the slight chance range again. But, showers
may be marginally more numerous than today.
By Saturday, the ridge will continue to build, and with the
subsidence, expectations are for continued warm temperatures,
even lower rain chances, and clouds should begin to scatter.
Temperatures Saturday are forecast for the mid 80s, and I`m
wondering if that might even be a bit pessimistic. Taking the
grids explicitly, record highs for Saturday will be safe. If this
forecast turns out to be too cool, record highs may need to be a
little more worried...
LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Sunday and Monday look like more of the same, as the 590dm line on
the 500mb chart rises to roughly I-10 by Sunday night in both the
GFS and Euro. However, the first inklings of change will be
developing over the Panhandle, as a surface low looks to develop
in the lee of the Rockies and make its way east. This low looks to
track farther south in the guidance than yesterday, more in the
Red River Valley than in the northern half of Oklahoma, but the
functional difference is ultimately pretty small. Models aren`t
quite as tight in their agreement as they were last night, but
still strong consensus for the lows trailing cold front to move
through our area on Wednesday, with little to no potential for
rain along the front. With little cold advection and winds aloft
quickly returning to west/southwest, temperatures are unlikely to
fall significantly - highs for the back half of the week are only
progged to fall into the middle to upper 70s, or very near
seasonal averages.
MARINE...
Keeping caution flags up for the offshore waters until
mid-morning due to slightly elevated winds/seas. High
pressure over the eastern United States and lower
pressure over West Texas and the Plains will maintain
an onshore flow until the next cold front arrives around
the middle of next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 85 71 86 69 86 / 10 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 84 73 85 70 85 / 20 10 20 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 80 73 81 74 81 / 30 10 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
25/42
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19615
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
No raining on our Parade today as we stand #Houston Strong for our World Series Champions Astros!BlueJay wrote:Will it rain on the Astros' parade this afternoon?
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Ok, who ordered this God forsaken November weather???
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4470
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Man, yesterday was hot. Goodness gracious. I was at Turner Stadium with my son watching a little league football game. We tied the record at 88. We will come close today and tomorrow ( the record high both days are 88...set back in 1963 today and 1969 tomorrow).
00
FXUS64 KHGX 061121
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion...COR
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
520 AM CST Mon Nov 6 2017
.DISCUSSION...
Zonal upper flow pattern across the Southern Plains going into
the first full week of November. Record level warmth continues as
the only maximum high or low temperature "not" tied or broken
on Sunday was College Station`s high temperature. Entrenched
southwesterly flow within this southern-based upper ridging has
advected in mid-level warm and dry air from southern Texas so...
when mixed down to surface during the afternoon hours...has warmed
ambient temperatures into the average upper 80s...15 degrees
above normal for early November. Morning minimum temperature
readings have also been abnormally high...on average near 20
degrees above seasonable standards...as (in feedback fashion) the
combination of low stratus brought on by high lower level moisture
pulled in on overnight southerly breezes will not allow these
very warm afternoon temperatures to fall much below 75 F. The
static nature to the synoptic will maintain this warm and muggy
theme the next couple of days. A Wednesday cold frontal passage
will finally break us out of this uncomfortable summer-like
scenario.
Not an overly strong frontal passage early Wednesday that will
focus the higher rain accumulations to those communities across
the far north-northeastern CWA. Most along and north of I-10 will
pick up about a third of an inch of rain with half inch to slightly
over inch amounts across the northern third of the forecast area.
Those south of I-10 will likely only receive a tenth to near quarter
of an inch just ahead of or along the near surface boundary.
Downstream mid-level capping and dry air above the inversion will
signal just light rain/showers. The front is timed to be off the
coast by noon...west-to-east precipitation clearing out from late
afternoon through midnight Thursday. Cool and dry air advection will
provide a much needed break from 80s/70s...regulating afternoon
warmth to the 60s/70s and allowing temperatures to fall into 40s/50s
from late night through sunrise going into the weekend...or slightly
below normal Thursday and Friday. In summary...a yo-yo week
temperature-wise with a little mid-week rain. The next cold front
Sunday is modeled to be weak...a backdoor-type boundary that looks
to do nothing more than just keep any significant warming at bay
heading into mid month. 31
&&
.MARINE...
Light to moderate onshore winds can be expected for the first half
of the week. The next cold front pushes off the coast on Wednesday.
Look for increasing north to northeast winds and building seas after
the front passes. Wednesday night and Thursday, caution flags will
likely be required, and a small craft advisory might be needed.
Expect decreasing northeast to east winds and lower seas at the
end of the week, and light to moderate east to southeast winds
over the weekend. 42
&&
.AVIATION...
Mainly MVFR ceilings early this morning will begin lifting after
sunrise with VFR conditions anticipated to develop by later in the
morning or early in the afternoon and S to SSW winds around 10 knots.
Expecting another round of mainly MVFR clouds and possible fog late
tonight through Tuesday morning. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 70 85 58 65 / 10 10 10 40 50
Houston (IAH) 89 72 87 66 73 / 10 10 10 30 50
Galveston (GLS) 84 74 84 71 76 / 10 10 10 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 AM CST early this
morning for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Discussion...31/42
00
FXUS64 KHGX 061121
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion...COR
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
520 AM CST Mon Nov 6 2017
.DISCUSSION...
Zonal upper flow pattern across the Southern Plains going into
the first full week of November. Record level warmth continues as
the only maximum high or low temperature "not" tied or broken
on Sunday was College Station`s high temperature. Entrenched
southwesterly flow within this southern-based upper ridging has
advected in mid-level warm and dry air from southern Texas so...
when mixed down to surface during the afternoon hours...has warmed
ambient temperatures into the average upper 80s...15 degrees
above normal for early November. Morning minimum temperature
readings have also been abnormally high...on average near 20
degrees above seasonable standards...as (in feedback fashion) the
combination of low stratus brought on by high lower level moisture
pulled in on overnight southerly breezes will not allow these
very warm afternoon temperatures to fall much below 75 F. The
static nature to the synoptic will maintain this warm and muggy
theme the next couple of days. A Wednesday cold frontal passage
will finally break us out of this uncomfortable summer-like
scenario.
Not an overly strong frontal passage early Wednesday that will
focus the higher rain accumulations to those communities across
the far north-northeastern CWA. Most along and north of I-10 will
pick up about a third of an inch of rain with half inch to slightly
over inch amounts across the northern third of the forecast area.
Those south of I-10 will likely only receive a tenth to near quarter
of an inch just ahead of or along the near surface boundary.
Downstream mid-level capping and dry air above the inversion will
signal just light rain/showers. The front is timed to be off the
coast by noon...west-to-east precipitation clearing out from late
afternoon through midnight Thursday. Cool and dry air advection will
provide a much needed break from 80s/70s...regulating afternoon
warmth to the 60s/70s and allowing temperatures to fall into 40s/50s
from late night through sunrise going into the weekend...or slightly
below normal Thursday and Friday. In summary...a yo-yo week
temperature-wise with a little mid-week rain. The next cold front
Sunday is modeled to be weak...a backdoor-type boundary that looks
to do nothing more than just keep any significant warming at bay
heading into mid month. 31
&&
.MARINE...
Light to moderate onshore winds can be expected for the first half
of the week. The next cold front pushes off the coast on Wednesday.
Look for increasing north to northeast winds and building seas after
the front passes. Wednesday night and Thursday, caution flags will
likely be required, and a small craft advisory might be needed.
Expect decreasing northeast to east winds and lower seas at the
end of the week, and light to moderate east to southeast winds
over the weekend. 42
&&
.AVIATION...
Mainly MVFR ceilings early this morning will begin lifting after
sunrise with VFR conditions anticipated to develop by later in the
morning or early in the afternoon and S to SSW winds around 10 knots.
Expecting another round of mainly MVFR clouds and possible fog late
tonight through Tuesday morning. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 70 85 58 65 / 10 10 10 40 50
Houston (IAH) 89 72 87 66 73 / 10 10 10 30 50
Galveston (GLS) 84 74 84 71 76 / 10 10 10 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 AM CST early this
morning for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Discussion...31/42
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4470
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
And...ding ding ding..we tied the all time November 6 record....sigh..
XUS64 KHGX 062139
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
339 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2017
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
3PM Temperatures - Houston IAH at 88F, Houston HOU at 87F, College
Station at 86F and Galveston at 81F. Houston HOU reached 88F
already and Galveston has been up to 83F. These all break/tie
records except for College Station which still needs to reach 88F.
Surface analysis shows cold front over N Texas this afternoon and
this front will be getting a stronger push southward on Tuesday.
Aloft SE Texas is still under the influence of an upper level
ridge with mainly zonal flow across much of the U.S. Water vapor
imagery and 500mb analysis also show an upper level trough over
the Inter-mountain west and another trough in the Pacific west of
California.
Overall tonight expect a repeat of last night and this morning
with patchy fog possible and low temperatures close to climo high
temperatures for early November. In fact there should be some
record high minimum temperatures set along with record high
temperatures.
.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
Tuesday the cold front should approach the area but likely not
affect high temperatures. Boundary layer flow should still be from
the SW and with 850mb temperatures still around 18-20C, high
temperatures will be back in range of the upper 80s and set/tie
record high temperatures for tomorrow again.
Cold front does reach the coast around 09-12Z Wednesday based on
NAM and high res mesoscale models. Synoptic models like
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian are a few hours within that timing. There may
be a weak line of showers with the front but atmosphere should be
capped limiting thunderstorm activity. By 12Z Wednesday the main
upper level trough should be moving across the Rockies coming in
phase with the trough currently in the Pacific. This system should
reach Texas around 00Z Thursday. This large scale ascent combined
with divergence in the right rear entrance to the Polar Jet and
frontogenesis at 850mb will support a broad area of rainfall
mainly from College Station to Huntsville northward. Forecast has
higher rain chances (50%-70%) focused along this forcing and quite
possible that there may even be some elevated thunderstorms
within these bands of rain. South of Huntsville there still may be
some widely scattered showers so will keep slightly lower rain
chances (30%). Rainfall amounts will be on the low side for most
of the area but areas north of College Station to Huntsville could
get a good 0.5-1" of rain.
Wednesday night into Thursday the rain chances should be
decreasing as the trough axis moves across the area. Models do
disagree with the timing of when the trough axis pushes through.
As a result, there are some lingering rain chances in the forecast
through Thursday morning. Rain chances clear out for Thursday.
Forecast models are depicting a colder airmass behind the front
for Wednesday and Thursday. Forecast temperatures were decreased
to account for this cooling. It will be quite possible that some
areas may stay in the 50s/60s for much of the day. With the trough
axis slow to push out, cloud cover will linger and limit heating.
.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...
Temperatures Thursday through maybe Saturday will be back down to
climatological normals or just a touch higher. So let that
marinade for a moment. Temperatures behind the cold front
Wednesday will only drop temperatures to near normal for this time
of year. That tells you how much above normal temperatures have
been before the front.
Through the weekend the upper level pattern remains more zonal
than amplified. The pesky upper level ridge remains over Mexico
Saturday and Sunday. The GFS and Canadian try to bring another
front into the area Saturday night. The ECMWF brings it through 24
hours later Sunday night into Monday. The upper level ridge does
try to build back over Texas during this time so there is some
doubt as to the front pushing through especially with a
predominantly zonal flow pattern.
Overpeck
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
MVFR ceilings this morning are unevenly improving to VFR, and that
improvement should complete very early this afternoon. Looking
again for a degradation to MVFR overnight, mainly through lowering
cloud bases again. However, with lighter winds in spots, there is
potential for some fog, and have brought in some visibility
reductions at CXO given its tendency to fog readily even in
more marginal conditions.
Luchs
&&
.MARINE...
Onshore winds continue through tomorrow evening. Look for those
winds to be generally light to moderate, but will at least flirt
with SCEC thresholds tonight, particularly for waters off the lower
coast. The next cold front pushes off the coast Wednesday morning,
with strengthening north to northeast winds and building seas in its
wake. SCEC conditions should be seen Wednesday night into Thursday,
and a small craft advisory in the offshore waters may be needed.
Winds will diminish modestly late in the week, gradually becoming
easterly by the weekend.
Luchs
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 70 87 55 61 46 / 10 10 30 60 50
Houston (IAH) 72 87 63 69 52 / 10 10 30 30 30
Galveston (GLS) 74 84 69 75 58 / 10 10 20 30 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Overpeck
SHORT TERM...Overpeck
LONG TERM...Overpeck
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs
FIRE WEATHER...Luchs
XUS64 KHGX 062139
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
339 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2017
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
3PM Temperatures - Houston IAH at 88F, Houston HOU at 87F, College
Station at 86F and Galveston at 81F. Houston HOU reached 88F
already and Galveston has been up to 83F. These all break/tie
records except for College Station which still needs to reach 88F.
Surface analysis shows cold front over N Texas this afternoon and
this front will be getting a stronger push southward on Tuesday.
Aloft SE Texas is still under the influence of an upper level
ridge with mainly zonal flow across much of the U.S. Water vapor
imagery and 500mb analysis also show an upper level trough over
the Inter-mountain west and another trough in the Pacific west of
California.
Overall tonight expect a repeat of last night and this morning
with patchy fog possible and low temperatures close to climo high
temperatures for early November. In fact there should be some
record high minimum temperatures set along with record high
temperatures.
.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
Tuesday the cold front should approach the area but likely not
affect high temperatures. Boundary layer flow should still be from
the SW and with 850mb temperatures still around 18-20C, high
temperatures will be back in range of the upper 80s and set/tie
record high temperatures for tomorrow again.
Cold front does reach the coast around 09-12Z Wednesday based on
NAM and high res mesoscale models. Synoptic models like
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian are a few hours within that timing. There may
be a weak line of showers with the front but atmosphere should be
capped limiting thunderstorm activity. By 12Z Wednesday the main
upper level trough should be moving across the Rockies coming in
phase with the trough currently in the Pacific. This system should
reach Texas around 00Z Thursday. This large scale ascent combined
with divergence in the right rear entrance to the Polar Jet and
frontogenesis at 850mb will support a broad area of rainfall
mainly from College Station to Huntsville northward. Forecast has
higher rain chances (50%-70%) focused along this forcing and quite
possible that there may even be some elevated thunderstorms
within these bands of rain. South of Huntsville there still may be
some widely scattered showers so will keep slightly lower rain
chances (30%). Rainfall amounts will be on the low side for most
of the area but areas north of College Station to Huntsville could
get a good 0.5-1" of rain.
Wednesday night into Thursday the rain chances should be
decreasing as the trough axis moves across the area. Models do
disagree with the timing of when the trough axis pushes through.
As a result, there are some lingering rain chances in the forecast
through Thursday morning. Rain chances clear out for Thursday.
Forecast models are depicting a colder airmass behind the front
for Wednesday and Thursday. Forecast temperatures were decreased
to account for this cooling. It will be quite possible that some
areas may stay in the 50s/60s for much of the day. With the trough
axis slow to push out, cloud cover will linger and limit heating.
.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...
Temperatures Thursday through maybe Saturday will be back down to
climatological normals or just a touch higher. So let that
marinade for a moment. Temperatures behind the cold front
Wednesday will only drop temperatures to near normal for this time
of year. That tells you how much above normal temperatures have
been before the front.
Through the weekend the upper level pattern remains more zonal
than amplified. The pesky upper level ridge remains over Mexico
Saturday and Sunday. The GFS and Canadian try to bring another
front into the area Saturday night. The ECMWF brings it through 24
hours later Sunday night into Monday. The upper level ridge does
try to build back over Texas during this time so there is some
doubt as to the front pushing through especially with a
predominantly zonal flow pattern.
Overpeck
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
MVFR ceilings this morning are unevenly improving to VFR, and that
improvement should complete very early this afternoon. Looking
again for a degradation to MVFR overnight, mainly through lowering
cloud bases again. However, with lighter winds in spots, there is
potential for some fog, and have brought in some visibility
reductions at CXO given its tendency to fog readily even in
more marginal conditions.
Luchs
&&
.MARINE...
Onshore winds continue through tomorrow evening. Look for those
winds to be generally light to moderate, but will at least flirt
with SCEC thresholds tonight, particularly for waters off the lower
coast. The next cold front pushes off the coast Wednesday morning,
with strengthening north to northeast winds and building seas in its
wake. SCEC conditions should be seen Wednesday night into Thursday,
and a small craft advisory in the offshore waters may be needed.
Winds will diminish modestly late in the week, gradually becoming
easterly by the weekend.
Luchs
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 70 87 55 61 46 / 10 10 30 60 50
Houston (IAH) 72 87 63 69 52 / 10 10 30 30 30
Galveston (GLS) 74 84 69 75 58 / 10 10 20 30 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Overpeck
SHORT TERM...Overpeck
LONG TERM...Overpeck
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs
FIRE WEATHER...Luchs
-
Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2502
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
One more day of record heat possible for the Houston-Galveston areas before the next cold front brings showers tonight through Wednesday night with highs dropping into the 50s and 60s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Temps rise slightly through the weekend into the mid 70s and lows in the 50s.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19615
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Tuesday morning briefing from Jeff:
A cold front separating winter from summer across the nation will move across SE TX this evening.
Record heat will continue one more day before a cold front sweeps across the region tonight. Temperatures will quickly fall from near record highs in the upper 80’s today to highs in the 50’s and 60’s on Wednesday under gusty N winds, clouds, and rain. It will certainly feel much colder on Wednesday compared to the last several days of warmth.
Front should reach CLL this evening and move off the coast early Wednesday morning with falling temperatures. An upper air disturbance in the WSW flow aloft will cross the region behind the frontal boundary allowing warm moist air to flow up and over the cold dense surface air mass. The result will be the formation of scattered showers and maybe a few elevated thunderstorms in the post frontal cold air. Greatest chances will focus across areas N of I-10 where forcing will be greatest and likely near the 850mb frontal boundary with upper ridging closer to the Gulf holding stronger and reducing rain chances S of the US 59 corridor.
Rains will end Wednesday night and partly cloudy skies will return on Thursday with slowly warming temperatures. Winds swing back to the S this weekend ahead of another front expected on Sunday, but temperatures do not warm to the current record levels with lows generally in the 50’s and highs in the 70’s.
A cold front separating winter from summer across the nation will move across SE TX this evening.
Record heat will continue one more day before a cold front sweeps across the region tonight. Temperatures will quickly fall from near record highs in the upper 80’s today to highs in the 50’s and 60’s on Wednesday under gusty N winds, clouds, and rain. It will certainly feel much colder on Wednesday compared to the last several days of warmth.
Front should reach CLL this evening and move off the coast early Wednesday morning with falling temperatures. An upper air disturbance in the WSW flow aloft will cross the region behind the frontal boundary allowing warm moist air to flow up and over the cold dense surface air mass. The result will be the formation of scattered showers and maybe a few elevated thunderstorms in the post frontal cold air. Greatest chances will focus across areas N of I-10 where forcing will be greatest and likely near the 850mb frontal boundary with upper ridging closer to the Gulf holding stronger and reducing rain chances S of the US 59 corridor.
Rains will end Wednesday night and partly cloudy skies will return on Thursday with slowly warming temperatures. Winds swing back to the S this weekend ahead of another front expected on Sunday, but temperatures do not warm to the current record levels with lows generally in the 50’s and highs in the 70’s.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4470
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Just gotta hang in there....Gracious...
000
FXUS64 KHGX 070930
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
330 AM CST Tue Nov 7 2017
.DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures continued across Southeast Texas yesterday
with another round of record highs and record high mins. Average daily
temperatures for the first six days of the month have been some 10 to
15 degrees above normal, with highs running around 10 degrees above
normal at the coast and between 15 and 20 degrees above normal inland.
A cold front will edge into our area from the north this afternoon
and work its way toward the coast and into the Gulf waters tonight
through tomorrow morning. Cooler temperatures behind the front are
expected to keep CLL from reaching records highs this afternoon.
However, IAH, HOU and GLS all might get warm enough before the front
arrives for another day of record heat. Temperatures will cool down
enough area wide before midnight to keep today`s record high min temps
safe. Our area`s best rain chances look to come behind the front (higher
up north and lower near the coast), roughly tonight through Wednesday
night, as a disturbance approaches and moves eastward across the area.
Thursday and Friday will be dry and cool as surface high pressure ridges
into the area from the north and northeast. Slightly warmer temperatures
(but nothing close to what we`ve experienced this past week) can be
expected over the weekend and on into the start of next week. 42
&&
.MARINE...
Gradient weakens today in advance of the next frontal boundary
approaching the area. Winds and seas should be on a downward trend
today. Cold front should push off the coast 2-4am tonight with
offshore winds in its wake picking up into caution criteria
Wednesday and possibly advisory criteria Wednesday night. As surface
high pressure moves off to the east, northerly flow will gradually
veer back around to the southeast by Saturday. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
Very few tweaks are expected with the 12z TAFs as the ongoing set
has a good handle on the situation. MVFR to higher end IFR ceilings
are currently present across most of the area. Though these will
gradually lift this morning it should be fairly slow to occur
considering the strong cap in place. Most locations should see 3000-
5000ft ceilings by noon. Cold front is still on target to move into
northern parts of the region this afternoon, the metro area this
evening, and off the coast late tonight. Cannot rule out a few
showers and/or drizzle along and behind the boundary as the 800-
950mb column saturates, but primary issue will probably be ceilings
falling back into MVFR territory once the front passes through. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 83 55 61 46 63 / 10 30 60 60 10
Houston (IAH) 87 63 68 52 65 / 10 30 40 50 10
Galveston (GLS) 84 69 75 58 67 / 10 20 30 50 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
42/47
000
FXUS64 KHGX 070930
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
330 AM CST Tue Nov 7 2017
.DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures continued across Southeast Texas yesterday
with another round of record highs and record high mins. Average daily
temperatures for the first six days of the month have been some 10 to
15 degrees above normal, with highs running around 10 degrees above
normal at the coast and between 15 and 20 degrees above normal inland.
A cold front will edge into our area from the north this afternoon
and work its way toward the coast and into the Gulf waters tonight
through tomorrow morning. Cooler temperatures behind the front are
expected to keep CLL from reaching records highs this afternoon.
However, IAH, HOU and GLS all might get warm enough before the front
arrives for another day of record heat. Temperatures will cool down
enough area wide before midnight to keep today`s record high min temps
safe. Our area`s best rain chances look to come behind the front (higher
up north and lower near the coast), roughly tonight through Wednesday
night, as a disturbance approaches and moves eastward across the area.
Thursday and Friday will be dry and cool as surface high pressure ridges
into the area from the north and northeast. Slightly warmer temperatures
(but nothing close to what we`ve experienced this past week) can be
expected over the weekend and on into the start of next week. 42
&&
.MARINE...
Gradient weakens today in advance of the next frontal boundary
approaching the area. Winds and seas should be on a downward trend
today. Cold front should push off the coast 2-4am tonight with
offshore winds in its wake picking up into caution criteria
Wednesday and possibly advisory criteria Wednesday night. As surface
high pressure moves off to the east, northerly flow will gradually
veer back around to the southeast by Saturday. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
Very few tweaks are expected with the 12z TAFs as the ongoing set
has a good handle on the situation. MVFR to higher end IFR ceilings
are currently present across most of the area. Though these will
gradually lift this morning it should be fairly slow to occur
considering the strong cap in place. Most locations should see 3000-
5000ft ceilings by noon. Cold front is still on target to move into
northern parts of the region this afternoon, the metro area this
evening, and off the coast late tonight. Cannot rule out a few
showers and/or drizzle along and behind the boundary as the 800-
950mb column saturates, but primary issue will probably be ceilings
falling back into MVFR territory once the front passes through. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 83 55 61 46 63 / 10 30 60 60 10
Houston (IAH) 87 63 68 52 65 / 10 30 40 50 10
Galveston (GLS) 84 69 75 58 67 / 10 20 30 50 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
42/47