November 2017 : Quiet Weather To End The Month

[Katdaddy]

Temps in the 50s across SE TX this morning with cloudy skies some very light rain. Fall weather will continue through Veterans Day.

[snowman65]

I just saw a report on the weather channel about a Greenland block setting up that "might" help give us a shot at cooler temps around Thanksgiving time frame. I know it's still a ways off Anyone care to elaborate on that? Thanks!

[Katdaddy]

A chilly morning across SE TX with inland temps in the 40s and 50s along the coast. Nice November weather will continue through Saturday with a slight chance of showers Sunday followed by more sunny skies. High temps will rise into the mid to upper 70s next week.

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 101717
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1117 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2017

.AVIATION...
Tricky forecast thanks to the midlevel deck in the western
portions of the area mentioned in the forecast update below.
Though these clouds will not impact flight category directly,
their location overnight will very strongly impact the marginal
potential for fog overnight. In the meantime, look for VFR
conditions with easterly winds around 10 knots.

Tonight, it is likely one of two scenarios will prevail - either
broken skies hold and fog potential is mitigated; or the deck
stays west, and fog potential similar to this morning happens
again under scattered or clearer skies. For now, the TAF trends
towards a persistence forecast with clearer skies. MVFR
visibilities at CXO and LBX hint at greater fog potential there,
while other sites have VFR reductions or MIFG. However, it should
be noted that if these clouds hold, VFR conditions late tonight
and early tomorrow morning would be expected.

Luchs

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2017/

UPDATE...
GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy
skies west of Interstate 45 this morning, with almost no clouds
east of the interstate where drier air worked its way into the
forecast area yesterday. Areas west of I-45 may see breaks or
clearing in the cloud cover today (given current trends in
satellite imagery), but forecast soundings for College Station
show moisture remaining trapped beneath an inversion near 800 MB
for much of the morning before thinning out this afternoon.
Persistent weak isentropic lift on the 305K surface across the
southwestern counties should maintain cloud cover for most of the
day and have lowered high temperatures there a degree or two with
less insolation expected. A midday update may be required to
capture the latest temperature trends should cloud cover erode
or fill in more than anticipated. Otherwise, expect highs in the
mid 60s to near 70 today with dry conditions.

[Cromagnum]

I've given up on November for any cool weather. Still hoping that December to March is much colder.

[DoctorMu]

I've given up on November for any cool weather. Still hoping that December to March is much colder.

Although the coldest air will be East of us, there's potential for colder Canadian air just after Thanksgiving Day. No freeze, maybe a light frost in northern counties.

[Katdaddy]

Above normal November temps through the week across SE TX with a slight chance of showers Thursday and Friday ahead of our next front.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 131750
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1150 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR. Drier air mass behind last night`s cold frontal passage will
allow only a few cumulus to pop up here or there...a thicker cirrus
canopy will spill atop upper ridging centered over Mexico. A weak
easterly breeze will veer back onshore by tomorrow afternoon. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017/

UPDATE...
A 60-70 knot upper level jet translating across Texas will result
in periods of high clouds over Southeast Texas today. Have
updated sky cover based on satellite trends with high clouds
expected to remain thin enough to have minimal impact on
temperatures. Additionally, have also bumped up highs a few
degrees into the mid 70s to low 80s. No other changes made to
ongoing forecast. 11

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A surface ridge across the eastern United States and lower
pressure across the Caribbean will maintain a relatively dry
northeast flow across the region (coupled with a dry nw flow in
the mid levels). High temperatures have been running on the upper
end, or above, guidance the past several days so trended grids
that way the next couple days.

Temperatures will continue to run 5-10+ degrees above normal
through the remainder of the work week. Increased humidities can
be expected Wednesday and beyond as high pressure moves further
east and allows se winds to resume. As the day shift pointed out,
we can`t rule out some isolated streamer showers, but continued
ridging & subsidence aloft will make things difficult to see much
of any precip of significance. Late night & morning fog will be
worth keeping an eye on.

Extended guidance is pointing toward a frontal passage late Friday
night or Saturday morning with temperatures returning to near
seasonable normals in its wake. Nudged POPs up slightly across the
southern parts of the area in association w/ the fropa. May need
a further bump once timing can be pinned down better. 47

MARINE...
Generally moderate NE winds will prevail today in the wake of a weak
cold front. SCEC conditions could also briefly prevail this morning/
early afternoon before things settle down as high pressure builds in
from the north. Winds should decrease tonight as the direction slow-
ly shifts to the east. Light to moderate east winds are expected Tue
and Tue night. As the high moves off to the east, onshore winds will
develop and prevail from mid week on through the end of the week.

Models are still going with the passage of a strong cold front some-
time late Fri/early Sat. SCEC or SCA flags are likely in the wake of
this boundary on Sat. 41

AVIATION...
Generally VFR as high pressure prevails over the area. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 59 78 61 79 65 / 10 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 58 77 60 79 63 / 10 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 65 73 67 77 68 / 10 10 10 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 PM CST this evening
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...11
Aviation/Marine...31

[Katdaddy]

Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s with partly cloudy skies through the rest of the week. A chance of showers arrive late this week and into the weekend as well as our next cool front.

[tireman4]

521
FXUS64 KHGX 141028
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
428 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level ridging will help to keep the weather over SE TX gen-
erally dry/warm/quiet these next few days. Patchy fog during the
morning hours are expected today and possibly tomorrow given the
favorable conditions of mostly clear skies and light/calm winds.
Onshore winds are progged to return tonight, and slowly strength-
ening the rest of the week as high pressure slides east and then
allows the next storm system to deepen over the Northern Plains.

Not seeing any significant POPS for SE TX until perhaps the late
Fri/early Sat time frame with the next cold front. While dispari-
ties persist with the model timing with this front...will opt to
keep leaning more heavily with the ECMWF which has stayed rather
consistent with this pattern. However...cannot rule out the some
very isolated WAA-type precipitation early Thurs/Fri mornings as
as onshore flow prevails.

A cooler/drier airmass to settle over the region this weekend in
the wake of the front. But long-range guidance is indicating the
return of this cold front as a warm front early next week with a
slight chance of rain returning at that time. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Winds/seas offshore still warrant an extension of the SCEC through
10 am. Winds should gradually diminish after sunrise with seas
slowly lowering as well. As high pressure over the ARKLATEX slides
off to the east gradient loosens and today and remains relatively
light through Thursday. Then as upper troughing moves through the
Western U.S. expecting the gradient over SETX/UTCW to tighten with
southerly winds approaching SCEC. Cold front swings through
Saturday (though the timing is very much in question...GFS ensembles
all drive it through to the coast by 00z Sunday) which seems quick
so after collaboration with neighboring offices will slow it and
show a little weaker offshore flow Saturday night/early Sunday -
trending toward the ECMWF.
45

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR for the most part other than some fog at the fog prone sites
this morning which could drop into LIFR/VLIFR before the mid level
cloud deck 7000-9000ft spreads over the area through 14z. Patchy
fog possible again tonight and should be mainly the same sites with
lighter winds as well.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 80 61 80 63 80 / 10 10 10 10 20
Houston (IAH) 80 59 80 60 80 / 10 10 10 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 75 66 75 68 75 / 10 10 10 20 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CST this morning
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[BlueJay]

The weather has been beautiful! No complaints.

[Katdaddy]

A muggy November morning across SE TX with patches of fog. From this morning’s HOU-GAL AFD:

A froggy morning expected for much of SE TX today (and likely to-morrow) given the clear skies/light winds and increased low-level moisture.

After the froggy morning we will have another Fall 80F day ahead with our next cold front set to arrive Saturday.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 151029
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
429 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A froggy morning expected for much of SE TX today (and likely to-
morrow) given the clear skies/light winds and increased low-level
moisture. A Dense Fog Advisory is possible shortly on through the
mid-morning hours when conditions will be improving. Another mild
and dry afternoon is forecast with max temperatures continuing to
run slightly above seasonal norms. A weak upper level disturbance
approaching from the NW could produce some very isolated/light RA
late this afternoon/tonight across our northern counties...but no
significant accumulations are expected given the very dry airmass
over the region. Otherwise, this pattern of cloudy/foggy mornings
and dry/warm(ing) afternoons should continue the next few days.

Our next best rain chances are still progged for Sat with the pas-
sage of a strong cold front. Model consensus a bit better with re-
gard to timing, which are pointing at the front being right along
the coast late Sat afternoon. The majority of the POPS will be at
and along the front, where lift will be best. The slightly capped
airmass (progged to be in place) could support some isolated TSRA.

Much cooler/drier weather expected in the wake of the front, with
perhaps some Fire Weather issues on Sun (see below). The extended
forecast (into the holiday week) is shaping up to be a rather dis-
parate one. Not seeing a lot (if any) consensus with this pattern
as the 00Z ECMWF is trending much much wetter/active than the 00Z
GFS. As such, will opt to lean a bit more with the ECMWF with the
long-range forecast as it has been verifying a bit better of late.
41

&&

.MARINE...
Relatively light winds on tap for a few days as high pressure over
Louisiana moves eastward and weak front sags southward into the
state tonight/Thursday. Strengthened onshore winds Friday on tap and
will probably reach SCEC conditions as winds and seas build...south
winds gradually veer to the southwest by afternoon. A cold front
pushes off the coast Saturday late afternoon and moderate offshore
ensues. SCEC and probably SCA conditions will follow with rough
waters thanks to the persistent southerly flow Friday and building
southerly swell banging against the offshore strengthening wind
waves. Model forecasts for Tue-Thu look like a roulette wheel for
outcomes. Strong offshore flow possible to light-moderate
easterly...very unsettled to say the least and confidence is very
low after Monday.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
Lots of MIFG across the area with some areas of more widespread fog.
At times 1/4 to 1 mile and others 6+. Low stratus deck edging
eastward and has moved into 3T5-11R-CLL area. Fog will probably
become a little thicker across the area and impacts at IAH/HOU
possible. After 14-15z warming and light winds/VFR on tap until
tonight (after 04z) when another round of VLIFR/IFR possible with a
mix of CIGS and VISBY.
45

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Overnight and early morning with excellent recovery conditions will
prevail the next few mornings. Friday will have gusty south to
southwest winds 10-20 mph with well above normal temperatures by 7-
10 degrees. A cold front swings through Saturday which could bring
spotty showers or even an isolated thunderstorm. Northwest to north
winds in the wake of the front will follow and should increase to 10
to 20 mph. Sunday a surge of drier air will be pushing south and if
skies remain clear and temperatures reach the projections of mid to
upper 60s then RH values will drop into the 21-27 percent range with
northerly winds of near 10 mph possibly stronger during the morning
and early afternoon hours. Fuel moistures should continue to dry out
though early this month ERC values were near normal for this time of
year. Given the weather and fuel moisture elevated fire weather
conditions may be possible.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 80 64 79 65 82 / 10 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 80 61 79 64 81 / 10 10 20 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 74 68 75 69 76 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[Katdaddy]

Clouds and patches of fog across SE TX this morning. Expect another very warm and humid November day with some scattered showers as we await our next cool front Saturday afternoon.

[srainhoutx]

Above normal temperatures this morning will quickly end this afternoon and particularly tonight as a strong cold front with very gusty winds push through our Region lowering daytime and night temperature a good 20F or so...or where they should be this time of year. The front is pushing into the Permian Basin and N Texas this morning with temperatures dropping very quickly and winds gusting to near 45 MPH at some locations.

[Heat Miser]

You know the weather is uneventful when srain hasn't posted anything for three days. Another boring winter on tap interrupted by little cool snaps and a showers now and then? If it were up to me we'd have no winter. Maybe a 5 degree temperature drop November through February.

[mcheer23]

Hopefully December brings us Highs in the 40s and 50s........

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Looks pretty seasonal through hour 384... a bit cooler than normal once December hits with highs in the 50s, but we are looking at average temps from this week onward for the most part.

[mckinne63]

I will take seasonal over warm and muggy!

[TexasBreeze]

^^ Seasonal is much preferred especially this week!!!