December 2017: End Of The Year Weather

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
hriverajr
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Transient... and east based
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DoctorMu
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hriverajr wrote:Transient... and east based
GFS - Yes

GEFS Ensemble - Shows prolonged and more widespread cold. No hard freeze with either model. We'll see.

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Katdaddy
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Tornado Warning
TXC157-201-032200-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0206.171203T2132Z-171203T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
332 PM CST SUN DEC 3 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
North central Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 400 PM CST.

* At 332 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Richmond, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Southwestern Sugar Land, northern Rosenberg, Richmond, Pecan Grove,
southwestern Eldridge / West Oaks, Cumings, New Territory, Cinco
Ranch and Greatwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
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Katdaddy
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A line of strong thunderstorms is moving through E Ft Bend, Harris and Brazoria Counties. This line of storm will be approaching Galveston County shortly.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
459 PM CST SUN DEC 3 2017

TXZ213-227-237-238-032345-
Brazoria TX-Galveston TX-Harris TX-Fort Bend TX-
459 PM CST SUN DEC 3 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 458 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Braeswood to Wild Peach Village. Movement was
northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with these storms.
Rainfall rates of one to two inches per hour have been observed with
this line of storms.

Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Pasadena, Pearland, southeastern Sugar Land, Missouri
City, western Friendswood, Lake Jackson, Alvin, Angleton, Stafford,
South Houston, Bellaire, West University Place, Clute, Galena Park,
Jacinto City, Manvel, Hunters Creek Village, West Columbia, Sweeny
and Bunker Hill Village.
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Katdaddy
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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
548 PM CST SUN DEC 3 2017

TXZ213-237-238-040030-
Brazoria TX-Galveston TX-Harris TX-
548 PM CST SUN DEC 3 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 548 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Alvin, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Southeastern Pasadena, Pearland, League City, Texas City,
Friendswood, La Porte, Alvin, Dickinson, La Marque, Santa Fe,
Seabrook, Webster, Hitchcock, Manvel, Kemah, Clear Lake, South Belt /
Ellington, Nassau Bay, Taylor Lake Village and El Lago.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
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Rip76
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That was some brutal rain here in The Pearland area.
CrashTestDummy
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Wow! It's been a while since we had a storm like that!! Three power outages in the span of about 15 minutes. Things have moved out, and cooled down. 66 deg. F here in Brazoria Co. with a northwest wind at about 7 MPH.

The pups are telling me it's wet outside, no way they're going out now!! :lol:
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Still a battle between GFS and Euro in the mid and long term. GFS is seasonal and Euro ensembles spell cooler than normal
Team #NeverSummer
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Katdaddy
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Some additional scattered showers and thunderstorms across SE TX today with warm temps in the upper 70s. Get ready for a change to colder weather as the front move across SE TX tomorrow afternoon along with continued chances for rain and thunderstorms. Lows dropping into the 40s Tuesday night and highs Wednesday in the low 50s.
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srainhoutx
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Monday morning briefing from Jeff:

Strong cold front will move across the region on Tuesday…period of below normal temperatures.

Short wave responsible for the active weather on Sunday afternoon has exited to the east while another wave is currently approaching from the west. Low level cloud deck has mixed out over much of the region which will allow for rapid heating this morning and may need to bump high temperatures for today into the lower 80’s. Another weak short wave will approach the area this afternoon and with increasing warm air advection expect to see additional showers and thunderstorms develop. Activity should remain more scattered compared to Sunday as the surface warm front is becoming diffuse and difficult to locate over the area which will help reduce a sustained lifting source.

Strong cold front will surge down the plains tonight and across TX early Tuesday. Frontal timing has been changing with model runs, but expect a morning passage at most locations. High temperatures will be before the frontal passage with many areas reaching the 70’s then falling rapidly into the 50’s with the onset of strong cold air advection. A line of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front, but the fast forward motion of the boundary should mitigate any significant rainfall totals and instability is on the low side so not expecting any severe weather.

Cold polar air mass pours into the region Tuesday night near the surface with a warm and moist air mass gliding up and over the surface cold dome due to continued SW/WSW flow aloft. This will result in a period of cold light rain chances Tuesday night-early Thursday. Forecast soundings continue to show a significant layer of dry air in the surface to about 800mb level which will cut down on rainfall production. It appears a stronger disturbance will eject across the region on Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours. During this period some of the soundings show a brief moistening of the dry near surface layer which could allow a better potential for light rain to reach the ground. Combination of cold air advection and evaporative cooling will likely limit temperatures to the 40’s for highs on Wednesday. Forecast soundings for Wednesday night show the above freezing layer nearly up to 600mb so think sleet is a remote possibility, but cannot rule out some locally enhanced evaporative cooling in any of the stronger cells that might support some sleet. Think best chances will be across the Hill Country into our NW/W counties where the temp profile is a little cooler.

Additional surges of cold and drier air arrive on Thursday and again on Saturday preventing any significant warm up. Clouds should begin to clear on Thursday as the dry surface layer deepens and helps to erode the moisture over the region. Additionally the flow aloft will gradually veer to NW which will help to dry out the upper levels of the atmosphere. Clear skies and light winds will result in cold morning lows Friday and Saturday, but highs will actually warm over Wednesday values into the upper 50’s to near 60 into the weekend.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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DoctorMu
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GFS modifies the colder air by Friday, while the Ensemble and Canadian hold onto the cold a little longer with reinforcing shots. If the GEM/Canadian is correct, we'd have our first freeze this weekend. We'll see.


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DoctorMu
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Overrun and wetness may be prolonged. Gusty winds after the front passage - classic Blue Norther.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
725 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

.AVIATION...
Showers departing the area to the east and have cleared the area
TAF sites. Band of MVFR ceilings in the wake of the showers with
VFR conditions elsewhere. Large shield of CI spreading over the
area tonight from the west and this will overtop the developing ST
deck tonight ahead of the cold front. Rain chances looking fairly
low through 09z then increasing with the approaching cold front.
MVFR ceilings and some patches of fog will impact the area. Timing
of the front still keeps it on track for CLL around 12z/IAH
15z/GLS 18z. Will be carrying a mix of SHRA/TSRA along the frontal
boundary with at least scattered coverage and probably more like
widespread as it closes in on the IAH/HOU area. Winds of course
crank around to the north and gusty and will persist that way
through Wednesday. Upglide will keep a thick cloud deck in place
over the area Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday morning with abundant
omega. Have reintroduced rain after 03z Wednesday for IAH.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and move
across SE TX this afternoon. The disturbance responsible for
today`s activity will push east of the region between 00-02z and
there should be a lull in precipitation from mid to late evening.
Still some subtle timing differences with an approaching cold
front. Not sure how cold to take KCLL tonight as the front could
arrive after 12z. Shorter term guidance is a bit faster and leaned
toward a slightly faster fropa. The front will trigger scattered
showers and storms but some of the short term guidance is backing
off on PoPs. Will continue to carry likely PoPs but the speed of
the front and benign instability parameters should preclude strong
storms or heavy rain. Temperatures will fall behind the front and
most of the region will be in the 50`s by Tuesday afternoon. Could
be some spotty light rain in the wake of the front Tuesday
afternoon but dry air beneath clouds will likely evaporate any
residual precip.

Models are in good agreement that a series of weak disturbances
will cross the state late Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
Fcst soundings show saturation above 7000 feet and sub cloud layer
is not quite as dry as advertised the last couple of days. The
combination of weak isentropic upglide, the weak disturbances and
subtle forcing by another surge of cooler air will provide the
area with a good chance of light rain late Tuesday night through
early Thursday. Will carry likely PoPs Tues night into Weds night.
The area of precipitation will gradually push south through the
period with drier air filtering into the region drying out the
northern zones and eventually drying out the southern zones on
Thursday. The clouds and precip will keep temps cool on Wednesday
and high temperatures will struggle to warm into the lower 50`s.

Clearing skies are expected Thursday night as high pressure moves
into West Texas. A slight warming trend will ensue on Friday as a
weak SW sfc flow develops. A weak cold front will cross the area
on Saturday. Moisture will not have a chance to return ahead of
the front, so conditions are expected to remain dry. Some cirrus
will scoot across the region Sunday into Monday with a gradual
warming trend. 43
CrashTestDummy
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Noooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

I’m home alone this week. Can’t be having to move plants around and covering others!!
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
Ounce
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CrashTestDummy wrote:Noooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

I’m home alone this week. Can’t be having to move plants around and covering others!!
Tell those plants, "Suck it up, buttercup!" See if that'll work.
Ounce
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 051003
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
403 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Yesterday there was a tweet that jokingly referred to yesterday as
the last day of summer for us, and in some ways, it`s hard to say
that`s wrong. A cold front will sweep through the area today,
bringing a line of showers and storms with it. Considerably colder
and drier air will surge in on gusty northerly winds behind the
front. However, the drier air will be shallow enough that lingering
rain will likely continue Wednesday and into Thursday before turning
dry into at least early next week. Except for very near the coast,
which may reach the mid-70s before the front chops things down, our
warm temperatures of recent days are done. Much, perhaps all of the
area will fail to reach 50 degrees tomorrow, and we may not see 60
degrees again until Saturday. Look for only a few spots in the
coastal southwest to breach 70 early next week. Low temperatures
don`t look to see widespread freezing temperatures, but there`s
pretty good confidence in consistent lows in the 30s and 40s. We
should be on the lookout for lows that may fall below the 32 degree
mark in our northernmost areas late this week into the weekend. For
reference, "normal" temperatures this time of year in the area are
lows in the middle 40s and highs approaching 70.

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

As of 3am, the cold front is just on our doorstep, marked in both
surface obs by a sharp change in winds and drop in dewpoint, and on
radar by a broken line of showers and an embedded thunderstorm or
two. Though forecast soundings show a marginally favorable
environment for severe weather, it seems a threat unlikely to
develop for most of the area if it hasn`t already. The exception
might be very near the coast, as some heating could juice up the
atmosphere before the front sweeps through, potentially rejuvenating
the line some. It still seems like a stretch (indeed, aforementioned
forecast soundings are not impressed, likely as they also build in a
bit of a cap as well ahead of the front), but I suppose it`s not out
of the picture. And, as it seems around this area, I might suspect
that if we beat the odds and see severe, brief tornadoes would be
the primary threat with high wet bulb zeroes and modest DCAPE, but
sufficient amounts of low level shear and helicity.

Look for a sharp dive in temps and dewpoints, while we see a brief
lull in precip behind the front this afternoon and early evening.
Winds will become northerly and increasing in strength and gustiness
through the afternoon. For the interior portions of the area, that
means our high temperature for the day has already happened. Near
the coast, we may see temps rise back towards the mid-70s late this
morning to give us our high temps, and then the front will chop
things down.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Gusty northerly winds will continue through the night. For the large
majority of the area, they`ll stay low enough that a wind advisory
seems unnecessary. However, it`s a different story very near the
Gulf, so don`t be surprised if one pops up later today for some/all
of the coastal counties. Would expect the strongest winds to occur
on Galveston Island, with a favorable fetch of winds just east of
north that will maximize wind speeds that rides all the way across
Trinity Bay and Galveston Bay.

After the earlier mentioned brief lull in rain chances in the
immediate passage of the the front, eventually we`ll see broader
isentropic lift kick back in with sufficient clearance by the front.
This will bring continued potential for rain through Wednesday and
possibly even into Thursday, until a secondary surge/front dries the
column sufficiently to end rain chances. Before it does so, however,
we may see rain intensity briefly pick up in a narrow band thanks to
frontogenesis occurring on that surge of colder temps aloft.

Something that stands out in forecast soundings for this period -
the low level cold, dry air underneath saturated mid/upper levels
means lots of evaporation before any rain hits the ground. This will
certainly reduce the intensity of any rain, so while confidence in
having rain is high, so is the confidence that rain is likely to be
light. Additionally, this is going to result in (potentially
significant) evaporative cooling. Though the wet bulb trace in
forecast soundings at the surface are above freezing, there looks to
be a surprisingly deep layer at or below 0C. It`s reminiscent of a
similar setup last winter in which brief amounts of sleet were
reported all the way into Houston, and it`s so, so tempting to put a
slight chance for sleet in the weather grids in this time period.
Will hold off for now, but think a few random sleet pellets are at
least possible in this timeframe.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

The long term is relatively boring compared to the rest of the
forecast period. Moisture is scoured out of the column, keeping the
weather dry. Temperatures will begin quite chilly and only warm
slowly, perhaps reaching seasonal averages sometime early next week.
Once the base of the mid-level trough rotates through Friday,
northwest flow will establish and prevail through the end of the
forecast period with an amplified ridge-west, trough-east pattern.
Early next week we could see a shortwave trough back winds aloft
slightly to more westerly and potentially bring in a dry front. But
really, the impacts on sensible weather are likely to be small/nil.
Some change may exist beyond the forecast period, but there is wide
spread in the guidance, so confidence in how any change may play out
is low, and may ultimately have only small impacts on sensible
weather.

&&

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...

Well mixed moist atmosphere up through 800mb across the area this
evening and has led to MVFR ceilings across the northern areas DWH
northward and a mix of VFR/MVFR southward. Cold front should arrive
at CLL around 12z/IAH-16Z/GLS-18Z. SHRA should be fairly widespread
along the boundary with a few thunderstorms mixed in though the
profile only shows about 300-900 CAPE topped off by a strong
subsidence inversion around 500mb. Precip should taper off post
frontal within a few hours but a vigorous s/w and very favorable jet
should crank up the isentropic lifting with deep overcast layer and
periods of rain Tuesday night throughout Wednesday night and even
Thursday morning. A very cold rain likely Wednesday and Thursday.
Possibly some inflight aircraft icing issues Wednesday night and
Thursday. 45

&&

.MARINE...

A strong cold front will move across the coastal waters this
afternoon through early this evening. Strong offshore winds and
rough seas that develop behind the front will continue for the next
several days. The bays and nearshore waters are under a small craft
advisory, and the offshore waters are under a gale watch. Periods of
rain with embedded showers and thunderstorms can be expected today,
and good rain chances will persist tonight through late Thursday or
early Friday. Weakening winds and lowering seas can be expected
toward the end of the week and over the weekend. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 61 40 46 39 53 / 60 40 80 60 30
Houston (IAH) 70 44 47 41 53 / 70 50 80 60 30
Galveston (GLS) 73 48 51 45 55 / 70 70 80 60 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST
Wednesday for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston
Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
Wednesday for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...45
MARINE...42
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Katdaddy
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A big weather change is on the way as the cold front is approaching SE TX this morning and will move off the coast later this afternoon. Expect some scattered showers and a few thunderstorms as the front moves across SE TX. Much cooler weather in its wake with highs around 50 for tomorrow and periods of light rain through Thursday night.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 051147
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
547 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

.AVIATION...
Cold front will move across the TAF sites this morning through early
this afternoon. Winds will shift to the north behind the front and
become gusty. SHRA and possible TSRA can be expected during the day.
There could be a break late this afternoon through this evening before
the area sees rising RA/SHRA coverage during the overnight hours and
on throughout the day tomorrow. MVFR ceilings should prevail for most
of the time with lowering levels possible during the day tomorrow.
42
&&
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tireman4
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Interesting bit of wording in the disco this morning..


It`s reminiscent of a
similar setup last winter in which brief amounts of sleet were
reported all the way into Houston, and it`s so, so tempting to put a
slight chance for sleet in the weather grids in this time period.
Will hold off for now, but think a few random sleet pellets are at
least possible in this timeframe.
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snowman65
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Even with this incoming strong front, so far it looks like my prediction of 33 on Oct 29 will still hold as the coldest day this season, at least here in Orange. Don't think this front will break that. I said that 33 on Oct 29 could be the coldest day we see all season...that would be something.... :D
Ounce
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The front has cleared the Woodlands. Still summertime in Spring (no pun intended).
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