FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

[mckinne63]

Hearing thunder here in Stafford. And it is now pouring rain!

[jasons2k]

Next round, here it comes..

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0027 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 237 AM EST THU FEB 22 2018 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX...NRN/CTRL LA...SERN AR...NWRN MS CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 220736Z - 221300Z SUMMARY...CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN BANDS AND CONVECTIVE CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ONGOING FLASH FLOODING TO PERSIST...OR FOR LOCALIZED AREAS OF NEW FLASH FLOODING TO DEVELOP. DISCUSSION...A VARIETY OF RAINFALL ESTIMATES (NSSL QPE, MRMS) AT 06Z INDICATED A BROAD SWATH FROM FAR EASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS HAS RECEIVED AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GROUND IN THIS AREA IS VERY LIKELY TO BE SATURATED...AND ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND RECENT FLASH FLOOD REPORTS SUGGEST THAT AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING PERSIST AS OF 0730Z ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE GROUND CONDITIONS AT THE PRESENT TIME...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD AGGRAVATE EXISTING FLOODING...OR CAUSE LOCALIZED AREAS OF NEW FLOODING TO DEVELOP. SOME FACTORS MAY COMBINE TO REDUCE THE OVERALL SCALE OF THE HEAVIER (1 IN/HR OR MORE) RAIN RATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND MAKE THE CONVECTIVE RAIN BANDS MORE SCATTERED IN GENERAL. A PROMINENT MID-UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA IS QUICKLY EJECTING NORTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED NVA BEHIND THAT WOULD TYPICALLY FAVOR SOME LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE...AND THE AREA WILL ALSO GET INTO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AROUND 09-12Z...SOMETHING ELSE THAT WOULD FAVOR SUBSIDENCE. FURTHERMORE...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROJECTED TO BACK SLIGHTLY INTO THE MORNING HOURS WITH 850MB WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS MAY INTRODUCE MORE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE AND INTERRUPT THE UNIFORM FLOW THAT HAS FAVORED TRAINING RAIN BANDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT THUS FAR. THAT BEING SAID...BROADLY CONFLUENT...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE OUTLINED DISCUSSION AREA. AND REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTIVE CELLS AND SMALL RAIN BANDS PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE SAME AREA. THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE APPRECIABLY IN THE NEXT SIX HOURS...WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF HEAVY RAIN BANDS AT THIS TIME...THE OVERALL MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT...AND THE CURRENT GROUND CONDITIONS...FLASH FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAIN RATES OF UP TO 1.5 IN/HR COULD OCCUR WITH SUFFICIENT TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS. LAMERS ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...LZK...MEG...SHV...

[srainhoutx]

Very able weather and rainfall look to continue to end February. Warm front moves N tomorrow and we will approach 80F for highs. Disturbances continue to ride the very noisy sub tropical jet stream across Texas and from the West where a deep trough is established and additional disturbances ride down the base of the trough and head toward the Plains. A cold front arrives Sunday dropping the temperatures once again and then return N as a warm front early next week.

[Cromagnum]

I for one welcome our mosquito and weeds overlords.

[srainhoutx]

NWSWGRFC‏Verified account @NWSWGRFC · 32m32 minutes ago
It continues to rain...and more rain is expected. Mainstem river flooding is forecast across most of E and NE TX. Maybe a break this weekend, before a return of precip next week. #txwx #txflood

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 221543
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
943 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.UPDATE...
With morning fog and clouds suppressing temperature rises some
this morning, have taken highs down a little. Also, with the rain
fizzling some up north, have reconfigured PoPs today to focus
closer to the coast instead, particularly this afternoon as a
subtle shortwave will pass by and should give the coverage of
showers a bit of a boost.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Early morning Southeast Texas temperatures are cool in the
wake of yesterday`s cold front with upper 30s to lower 40s
north, upper 40s to lower 50s central and lower 60s near
the coast. Radar is showing mainly showers and some isolated
thunderstorms with the greatest concentration generally north
of the I-10 corridor. With a persistent southwest aloft for
the next several days, expect to see periods of showers and
thunderstorms with the higher rain chances up north and the
lower rain chances closer to the coast. An onshore flow
returns to the area and strengthens on Friday and Saturday
resulting in warming temperatures. A cold front moves through
the area Saturday night and cools us back down. An onshore
flow looks to come back on Monday night or Tuesday as surface
high pressure moves off to the east and pressures begin to
fall off to our northwest. 42

MARINE...
Stationary front situated from roughly High Island to 30nm south of
Matagorda Bay will be returning north as a warm front today. Areas
of dense sea fog is situated near the front and will become a
problem again for the bays as onshore flow resumes. Fog will be an
issue until late Sat night with the passage of another front.
Onshore flow and building seas in advance may require caution flags
in the 20-60nm waters Fri night & Sat. Northeast winds behind the
front will prevail for a couple of days before veering onshore again
on Tue. 47

AVIATION...
Poor flying conditions expected with LIFR/IFR ceilings and areas of
fog/shra persisting throughout the day. Metro airports may see a few
hours of MVFR ceilings late in the afternoon once the warm front
passes to the north - but it`ll be temporary and expect them to fall
right back down after sunset. Fog and periods of -ra can be expected
overnight as moisture overruns the warm front and subtle
disturbances embedded in the sw flow aloft move overhead. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 49 53 75 64 75 / 40 60 40 30 60
Houston (IAH) 67 62 79 67 79 / 60 50 30 30 50
Galveston (GLS) 70 64 73 65 74 / 50 30 20 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for the following zones:
Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out
20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CST today for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...25

[JulesC]

Umm...I thought it was supposed to be in the 70’s today but the highest temperature I’ve seen here in Katy has been about 60 degrees. What’s up with that and will it continue tomorrow?

[jasons2k]

You can see the front on radar, basically near downtown Houston and stretching from NNE to SSW. It is nearly stationary but sagging a little to the south and east again.

[srainhoutx]

It looks like the front will begin heading N and out of our hair today ushering in warmer temperatures today and tomorrow with not much of a chance of rainfall until Sunday with the next frontal passage. This may be the first time since mid January that we have escaped rainfall on a Saturday. Hopefully there will be good weather for the trail riders arriving today and for the Parade tomorrow. Happy Go Texan Day in Houston!

[jasons2k]

Wind is quickly shifting back to the SE in response to the next system. The "warm front" is pretty diffuse now as the warm, moist flow washes out the shallow cold air.

[Katdaddy]

Partly sunny skies along the Upper TX Coast with temps in the upper 70s and a few 80s currently. To the NW of Houston there are areas of fog and cooler temps ahead of the warm front that will be pushing further inland this afternoon. Only a slight chance of a thunderstorms through the rest of the afternoon and overnight. It will feel like Spring today behind the warm front.

I must say its very nice to see the sun with partly cloudy skies and and the temp at 77F.

[jasons2k]

Already up to 80F here.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 231752
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1152 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.AVIATION...
Visible satellite imagery late this morning shows ceilings
beginning to scatter at CXO, IAH, HOU, SGR, and LBX. Intermittent
MVFR conditions will be possible at these terminals through early
afternoon but decent mixing will allow for VFR conditions to
prevail for at least a few hours before sunset. Daytime heating
may also contribute to isolated SHRA developing near these
terminals this afternoon.

VLIFR conditions continue to impact CLL and UTS (located north of
a stationary boundary also evident on visible satellite bisecting
Southeast Texas from VCT to LFK) and are expected to linger
through mid- afternoon before the stationary boundary begins to
lift north as a warm front and allows for ceilings to lift to
MVFR. Periods of VLIFR sea fog will continue to impact GLS through
the afternoon. Webcams have shown some improvement around the
island and expect a window for IFR/MVFR this afternoon before fog
rolls back in this evening.

A developing 40 knot low level jet overnight and associated
mixing should help mitigate against overall fog potential, but
should result in ceilings lowering to IFR after 06Z. Associated
moisture advection may result in a few SHRA developing again early
Saturday morning.

Southerly winds 8-12 knots this afternoon should decrease into
the 6-10 knot range after sunset. Southerly winds are expected to
increase into the 10-15 knot range during the day Saturday ahead
of a cold front approaching the terminals after 21Z.

[Cromagnum]

Bring the cold dry air back.

[mckinne63]

Bring the cold dry air back.

Yes! Not ready for hot and humid. I park in a parking garage at the office, the car was so thick with smoggy stuff I had to roll down the windows and turn on the defrosters. Have the a/c on in the house. I have said it before and will say it again, shorts in February is just wrong

[jasons2k]

Well gang, it looks more and more like the Siberian Express just isn't going to pay us a visit after all. I have to admit, in Mid-January, what I was seeing in Siberia & in the long-range models had me pretty scared. I thought it was going to come down like an avalanche, a classic old-fashioned blue norther. One for the ages.

And then it kept getting further...and further it out. Then it would go...and come...and go...then gone.

Yes, it looks like it's gonna get chilly again in March (maybe....we might lose that too), but I think Spring has sprung and IAH has seen its last freeze until this fall. I'm gonna give it one more week to be safe and then it's planting time for me. I can't wait - there is nothing that signals hope, youth, freshness, and life better than a thriving spring garden! (except babies, puppies and kittens of course!)

Happy Friday to all - if you like the warmth, get out and enjoy some sun.

[srainhoutx]

We will need to monitor the chances of heavy rainfall and possibly some elevated training thunderstorms tonight into Sunday as a very slow moving cool front approach this evening. A skinny line of thunderstorms look to approach our Northern Zones this evening, but a series of embedded disturbances riding along that very noisy sub tropical jet look to cross the SE Texas area tonight where heavy rainfall may focus along and S of the front before transitioning further inland tomorrow morning and possibly throughout the day and evening hours. While widespread flood concerns are minimal, there are suggestions from some of our higher resolution shorter range guidance that some locations could pick up 1-3 inch amounts, possibly higher where training storms do occur. There are a lot of outdoor activities underway with the Rodeo in town, so stay weather aware and have alternate plans should our weather turn wet and stormy.

[Belmer]

We will need to watch radar trends closely next few hours to see when the convection starts building north of I-10 as the frontal boundary slides southward in our area. Latest few HRRR runs are becoming a slight concern right along I-10 here in Houston. As the storms fire off to our north and become linear as they move south, trends are that the line of storms will slow down and train across our area. In addition, as Steve mentioned, disturbances will ride along that boundary from our SW throughout the night into tomorrow to increase the rainfall. With a very moist atmosphere right now with PW values high, we could see some very heavy rain tonight.

1-2 inches looks promising and depending on where the band of rain slows down and stalls, those areas could see 4 inches with some isolated 5-6 inches... which right along I-10 (+/- 20 miles south/north) is where the HRRR wants to put the bullseye of that precipitation right in Houston.

[stormlover]

When does it look like the rain will start and end ?