April 2018- April To End Cooler/Drier Than Normal

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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ticka1
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Spring is here! What will our weather be like?
BlueJay
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I am hoping for APRIL showers so as to bring MAY flowers!
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I think wxman57 perked some ears with his 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference forecast for S Padre Island next week. Fortunately for those of us heading to the RGV Region, the Euro backed off those unusually cool temperatures and the afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day Outlook suggests near to slightly above normal temperatures and slightly above normal precipitation. When inspecting the Day 8+ GEFS Super Ensemble and its analogs, a vigorous cold upper low is expected to spin over Hudson Bay in Canada suggesting possible quick hitting waves of cooler air entering the United States east of the Rockies.
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ticka1
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more rain forecasted for next week?
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srainhoutx
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ticka1 wrote:more rain forecasted for next week?
Perhaps a little rain Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with the next cool front, but nothing too heavy at this time.
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Hope everyone has breathed a little easier this weekend with the heavy rain from Wednesday night/Thursday morning washing all that pollen away. I know my nose and I are happy...

Speaking of the weekend... this is our 13th of 2018 so far. 11 of the 13 weekends have had some type of rain/dreary weather associated with it. You couldn't have written a better forecast for Houston on Easter weekend with lower humidity, lows in the 50s/60s and highs in the low 80s with sunshine for everyone.

While a nice cool down looks promising in the medium to longer range, we need to focus more on the shorter range as Tuesday night into Wednesday morning offers us our next chance of some severe weather. This will be less of a flooding threat with rainfall totals looking generally less than an inch. The SPC has highlighted a large area for thunderstorms with the approach of our next cold front.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0405 AM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
D4/Tuesday - Medium range models are in general agreement with the
timing of a southern-stream trough to move across central/eastern
parts of TX/OK by peak heating on Tuesday. A moist, moderately
unstable and strongly sheared warm sector will be conducive for
organized severe storms to develop initially in vicinity of a
dryline with supercells likely. A cold front advancing quickly
south Tuesday evening toward the northwest Gulf Coast will continue
to support a threat for severe storms associated with a potential
squall line.


..Peters.. 03/31/2018
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srainhoutx wrote:I think wxman57 perked some ears with his 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference forecast for S Padre Island next week. Fortunately for those of us heading to the RGV Region, the Euro backed off those unusually cool temperatures and the afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day Outlook suggests near to slightly above normal temperatures and slightly above normal precipitation. When inspecting the Day 8+ GEFS Super Ensemble and its analogs, a vigorous cold upper low is expected to spin over Hudson Bay in Canada suggesting possible quick hitting waves of cooler air entering the United States east of the Rockies.

The NAO is negative and chances are the East will be cooler. We could see NW flow aloft which reduces the risk that severe season will be too severe. We'll see.

The next cold front is Tuesday. The northern cos. will see T-storms and right now a light risk of severe weather. Yesterday was perfect. Wednesday and Thursday look perfect as well
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Belmer wrote:Hope everyone has breathed a little easier this weekend with the heavy rain from Wednesday night/Thursday morning washing all that pollen away. I know my nose and I are happy...

Speaking of the weekend... this is our 13th of 2018 so far. 11 of the 13 weekends have had some type of rain/dreary weather associated with it. You couldn't have written a better forecast for Houston on Easter weekend with lower humidity, lows in the 50s/60s and highs in the low 80s with sunshine for everyone.

While a nice cool down looks promising in the medium to longer range, we need to focus more on the shorter range as Tuesday night into Wednesday morning offers us our next chance of some severe weather. This will be less of a flooding threat with rainfall totals looking generally less than an inch. The SPC has highlighted a large area for thunderstorms with the approach of our next cold front.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0405 AM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
D4/Tuesday - Medium range models are in general agreement with the
timing of a southern-stream trough to move across central/eastern
parts of TX/OK by peak heating on Tuesday. A moist, moderately
unstable and strongly sheared warm sector will be conducive for
organized severe storms to develop initially in vicinity of a
dryline with supercells likely. A cold front advancing quickly
south Tuesday evening toward the northwest Gulf Coast will continue
to support a threat for severe storms associated with a potential
squall line.


..Peters.. 03/31/2018

Agree - right now it looks like a squall line along the front is more likely than rotating cells we saw earlier this week.
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srainhoutx
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The overnight guidance continues to advertise a strong line of thunderstorms, some possibly severe crossing our Region along a Cold Front that should arrive late afternoon into the evening hours of Tuesday, The Storm Prediction Center has Outlined most of SE/E Texas as well as potions of Western Louisiana and Southern Arkansas in a Slight Risk area. Heavy rain does not appear to be an issue as the line look to move rather quickly.
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Severe thunderstorms remain possible ahead of tomorrow afternoon’s cold front which will bring cooler and drier weather to SE TX for mid week.
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 021802
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
102 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the afternoon with
MVFR stratus spreading back across the region after sunset
tonight. Terminals closer to the coast will see onset earlier
(sometime between 02-04Z) with ceilings spreading across all
terminals by 08Z. MOS guidance was fairly consistent in lowering
ceilings into IFR overnight but concerned that strengthening
southerly flow as a lee cyclone ejects across the Central Plains
overnight may be too strong for ceilings to lower beyond MVFR.
Have added SCT decks around FL008 due to potential but low
confidence precludes adding IFR with this issuance. Ceilings
should gradually lift with heating tomorrow, but may not reach VFR
until the afternoon hours. Southerly winds should remain in the
10-15 knot range through the period in response to the
developing/ejecting Central Plains system with stronger gusts in
the 20-25 knot range possible this afternoon as breaks in the
clouds allow for stronger winds above the surface to mix
downward.

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 AM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018/

UPDATE...

A nearly stalled warm front has drifted northward to the northern
edge of our area of responsibility. This has allowed locations
like Bryan/College Station, Madisonville, and Crockett - which
had been in the lower 60s just a couple hours ago - to surge into
the lower to middle 70s. This is about an hour or so faster than
what had been in the forecast, so went ahead and nudged up high
temperatures there a degree or two. But, in the grand scheme of
things, expectations for temperatures today to around and a little
above 80 degrees looks good.

Overcast skies from this morning have broken up over the past
couple of hours, and while it looks like we`ll have enough
moisture and instability underneath the cap to stay at or return
to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon, have gone ahead and removed
most of the slight chances of rain in place. Have left some of
those slight chances up in the vicinity of the front, as radar
shows echoes in the 15-20k foot range. If anything to fall out of
that survives midlevel dry air, we could get a bit of seeder-
feeder action, and so I didn`t feel quite comfortable enough going
totally dry there. Still, the odds are probably against getting
anything measurable, even there.

Luchs

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 67 79 47 67 47 / 20 70 40 0 0
Houston (IAH) 70 81 53 71 50 / 10 30 80 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 72 77 60 69 59 / 20 20 60 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...25
Aviation/Marine...14
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jasons2k
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I am glad we are in the 80's, and not the 40's like up in Dallas. One of those days I am thankful I live down here.
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tireman4
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Tor Con 2

TUESDAY 4/3
Scattered severe thunderstorms in OH, IN, central and south IL, northeast, central and south MO, west and central KY, west and middle TN, north AL, north, central and southwest MS, north and west LA, east TX, extreme east OK, AR, spreading overnight across west AL, southeast MS, southeast LA.. TORCON - 4 in OH, IN; 3 IL, west KY, west TN; 2 to 3 rest of area except 2 in TX, OK, LA, southwest MS areas.

Severe thunderstorms form along a cold front and in the Midwest near the warm front. Wind shear is most favorable for tornadoes near the warm front.with a strong low-level jet and rotation around a surface low. Lift from an approaching upper trough may allow some storms in the warm sector in the Midwest, whereas from the Mid-South southward a strong cap and weaker upper forcing will probably limit storms to cold front lifting.
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Monday evening briefing from Jeff:

Slight chance of severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds possible Tuesday afternoon and evening over the region

A short wave trough and cold front will approach and move across SE TX late Tuesday. Air mass ahead of this feature has become increasingly moist and unstable today, but is capped by a warm layer of air in the mid levels about 5,000 ft above the surface. This is currently preventing any sort of thunderstorm formation over the region. This cap will remain in place into much of Tuesday morning and likely into the early afternoon hours before starting to weaken with surface heating and incoming lift from both the short wave and frontal boundary.

There is a small potential for thunderstorms to begin to develop in the warm sector air mass well ahead of the frontal boundary Tuesday afternoon. These cells, if they develop, would have a discrete supercell type formation with very large hail and possible isolated tornadoes. This threat is conditional on the mid level capping being broken. At this time this threat appears to be very isolated, but it is certainly a situation where if anything can manage to form is would quickly go severe.

Better chances of strong to severe thunderstorms will accompany a southeastward moving cold front late Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours. Unidirectional shear in place over the region supports isolated supercell formation quickly transitioning into a line of thunderstorms with the main threats being damaging winds and large hail. Given the time of day (late afternoon) for storm formation from College Station to Huntsville, think this will be the main threat area for severe weather with storms progressing SE during the evening hours, but also with the loss of heating a general decreasing trend in intensity. Think there is still a severe threat as far south as the I-10 corridor especially on the hail side of the spectrum. Would also not rule out an isolated brief tornado along the leading edge of the line as is common in these types of lines where notches of bends form.

While heavy rainfall will certainly accompany the storms, the fast forward motions should keep totals in the .5-1.5 inch range. Overall not expecting many problems with respect to the rainfall.

Much cooler and drier on Wednesday, but this will be short lived as the next system rolls toward the area on Friday/Saturday. Gulf moisture will not be pushed far offshore with the Wednesday morning frontal passage, so will bring thunderstorms back to the forecast Friday and into Saturday ahead of the next front/storm system. This front may not be able to clear the area and could stall somewhere over the region, so will need to keep an eye on this potential for rounds of storms and a greater rainfall threat. Also appears a severe threat may be in order again during this period.

Overall a fairly active spring pattern.

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A Slight Risk for severe storms continues for late this afternoon until around midnight when the cold front should reach the Coast. The latest HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh)Mesoscale Guidance suggests the capping inversion breaks around 4:00PM this afternoon near College Station and a line of thunderstorms begin to march SE toward the Coast. Stay weather aware today and wish all of us traveling by air today pleasant travel weather and no weather related delays as many fly in from across the Country into our Houston Airports to make connections to Harlingen and Brownsville. Wxman57 sent me a text to bring a light jacket. I guess we will have cool and breezy weather Wednesday in S Padre Island.
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Strong Storms This PM
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SPC Outlook
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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0025.html

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 25
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Arkansas
Northwest Louisiana
Southeast Oklahoma
Central and Northeast Texas

* Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1025 AM until
600 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are intensifying over central Texas, and
will spread northeastward across the watch area through the
afternoon. Other storms will form along an approaching cold front.
Large hail and damaging winds will be possible in the strongest
cells.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west of Temple
TX to 40 miles northeast of Shreveport LA. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
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Severe Thunderstorm Watch includes Brazos, Burleson, Houston, Madison, Trinity Counties in SE Texas...
04032018 ww0025_radar.gif
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 25
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Arkansas
Northwest Louisiana
Southeast Oklahoma
Central and Northeast Texas

* Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1025 AM until
600 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are intensifying over central Texas, and
will spread northeastward across the watch area through the
afternoon. Other storms will form along an approaching cold front.
Large hail and damaging winds will be possible in the strongest
cells.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west of Temple
TX to 40 miles northeast of Shreveport LA. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
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