MAY 2018 - Feelin Hot Hot Hot to end May

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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ticka1
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Looking forward to seeing what the forecast shows for May? Actually enjoying these milder/cooler temps.
jojotheidiotclown
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God, I hope not. I thrive in the warmth. Love summer. If I wanted mild or cold temps I would live up north as a Yankee.
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srainhoutx
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The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Experimental Week 3 to 4 Outlook that takes is into early/mid May suggests a deep Central/East Coast trough with equal chances of normal precipitation.
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DoctorMu
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ticka1 wrote:Looking forward to seeing what the forecast shows for May? Actually enjoying these milder/cooler temps.
Ideal for my sprinkler and A/C unit. It's 67°F and we had 0.8 in of rain tonight. I'd take this all year round.

Our utility bills for July and August are ridiculous. 100°F, high humidity, but not much rain. We have no choice but to water during summers. The deep well aquifer water is high in sodium, so the water is alkaline...and that means extra iron for plants and grass. Gardenias and azaleas? Fuhgettaboutit. Landscaping in Texas is not for the weak of heart.
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srainhoutx
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I wanted to briefly point out some signal developing in the medium/long range ensemble guidance suggesting a prolonged SE fetch off the Gulf begin this coming Sunday and extends throughout next work week. A vigorous deep trough appears to dig into the 4 Corners Region with the potential for a very robust cyclogensis (strong surface storm system) across the Panhandle/Southern Rockies late next work week. This typically spell severe weather threat in early May, so we will need to monitor trends into early next week.
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04242018 06Z 2016 gfs-ens_z500a_namer_37.png
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srainhoutx
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May looks to begin with an active weather pattern that could persist into the first full week or two of the month. Mid to late next week appear the most active as severe weather season in the Plains becomes active with a trough to the West and a Ridge to the East setting the stage for prolonged NW Gulf moisture to stream inland into the Plains and very strong dynamics. The Storm Prediction Center has Outlined a rather high 30% Chance of all modes of severe weather at Day 6 across potions of the Central/Southern Plains. As a cold front advances across Texas a week from today, strong to severe storms will some potential for heavy rainfall enters the forecast. Some of the guidance stalls that front near the Coast keeping generally unsettled weather around well into the following work week, but that's much to far out into the future to consider anywhere close to accurate. We will monitor next weeks data very closely and fine tune the sensible weather expected as we get a bit closer. Stay Tuned!
04272018 Day 6 SPC day6prob.gif
04272018 Day 6 to 7 QPF 97ep48iwbg_fill.gif
04262018 CPC 814temp_new.gif
04262018 CPC 814prcp_new.gif
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unome
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I hope we get more rain, I hate watering

chance of snow in the Rockies, per their tweet - I won't complain if we stay cooler a while, 90+ will get here soon enough !

https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/990640775678562305
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srainhoutx
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Active Weather Week as we turn the Calendar to May. The first Spring Season Severe Weather Event looks to unfold across portions of the Southern/Central Plains through Thursday as a vigorous Western Trough with embedded disturbances eject out of the 4 Corners into the Plains. Deep long fetch NW Gulf Moisture with become established today and increase as the week wears on. Locally, a SW flow aloft should keep rain/storm chances to a minimum other than some light beneath the capping inversion streamer showers unto Friday as a frontal boundary approaches the Hill Country and perhaps increases our rain chances slightly before the front clears the Coast on Saturday. The good news is that areas of Texas that are in severe drought conditions may be the benefactors of the heaviest rainfall this week, so that bodes well for those areas to replenish their lakes/reservoirs. Our SE Texas Lakes/Reservoirs are in fine shape with water levels across the Region near 90+% of capacity.
04302018 7 Day QPF p168i.gif
Keep an eye on our Hurricane Central section this week as we are monitoring the potential of some form of tropical/extra tropical mischief attempting to organize next week near the Bahamas. All of the Major Global Models are "sniffing" this potential that appears to pose absolutely no threat to the Gulf or Texas. Tis that time of year when attentions turns to the Tropics and serves as a reminder to replenish your Hurricane Supplies and update your Plan of Action... ;)
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jasons2k
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From the PM AFD:
GFS and even the ECMWF keep higher QPF
amounts over central Texas so tried to keep higher PoPs to the NW
of the Houston area in the Friday/Saturday time frame.
The area will either be capped by the elevated
mixed layer for the next few days or instability will be limited
for the end of the week when the front becomes active. While there
is higher moisture, we are not really seeing any signals for
heavy rainfall but something to keep tabs on going forward.
:cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry:
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djmike
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FYI! Fun exciting event coming up here in Beaumont you guys may wanna make a small trip for!
***Only 8 days away!***
Come see the NOAA hurricane hunters at Jack Brooks Regional Airport in Nederland on May 8th. Tour two of the Hurricane Hunter aircraft, speak with the pilots, and walk through vendor exhibits from various local agencies and organizations. The event is FREE and the public is invited to attend from 2 pm to 5 pm!
https://www.weather.gov/lch/hat
y
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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srainhoutx
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Rain chances locally appear to be dwindling by the day other than a slight chance of rain and possibly a few scattered storms with the cool front Friday night.

Yesterday the Climate Prediction Center did update their May Outlook and there may be a silver lining in the weather department, particularly for locations to our NW and W that have seen severe drought conditions since Winter began. While we will certainly be warm, I do not see scorching heat and bone dry conditions either for the month ahead. In fact we may end up on the Eastern Periphery of a Desert SW 'Ring of Fire' that may allow for rain chances as indicated by the CPC Month of May Precipitation Outlook. Fingers Crossed!
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04302018 May off15_temp.gif
04302018 May off15_prcp.gif
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tireman4
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Just a PSA for this late Spring into Summer....
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Ounce
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srainhoutx wrote:Rain chances locally appear to be dwindling by the day other than a slight chance of rain and possibly a few scattered storms with the cool front Friday night.

Yesterday the Climate Prediction Center did update their May Outlook and there may be a silver lining in the weather department, particularly for locations to our NW and W that have seen severe drought conditions since Winter began. While we will certainly be warm, I do not see scorching heat and bone dry conditions either for the month ahead. In fact we may end up on the Eastern Periphery of a Desert SW 'Ring of Fire' that may allow for rain chances as indicated by the CPC Month of May Precipitation Outlook. Fingers Crossed!
Well, it IS the month for Memorial Day.
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jasons2k
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tireman4 wrote:Just a PSA for this late Spring into Summer....
Ya know, back in simpler times, it used to be so much more straightforward:

Watch: Severe weather conditions are possible in and close to the watch area. Closely monitor weather conditions to take action, if necessary.

Warning: Severe weather conditions are imminent or have been observed in the warned area. Follow instructions and take cover immediately.

So simple. Nothing ambiguous about that. And yet, I'd still see TV weathermen and anchors often referring to a "watch" as a "warning" instead or some other crazy concoction to confuse people. I don't get it.
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Katdaddy
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An active severe weather across the Central Plains late yesterday afternoon and night with a preliminary report of 21 tornadoes. Today will be another active severe weather day across the Southern Plains and Central Plains into the middle MS Valley from the TX Big Bend NE to MI.

Expect a continuation of Monday’s weather across SE TX with warm temps, humidity, lots of clouds, and some isolated drizzle or light showers.
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jasons2k
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Highlights from the AFD. No real changes.
The warm and muggy weather pattern
in place now will continue for a couple more days with rain
chances remaining on the low side as weak ridging aloft persists.
Our rain chances go up during the Friday-Saturday time period
(as of now, higher up north and northwest and lower closer to the
coast) when a trough moves across the state and helps to drag a
cold front into our area. Heaviest rainfall with this event still
looks like it will set up from around the Del Rio area to the
Arklatex region, but only a slight eastward shift of this system
could place parts of our north and northwest areas into the
heavier rain axis. Still looking for the area to dry out from
north to south late Saturday through Saturday night as the trough
moves off to the east and weak ridging begins to build in from
the west and southwest. With a drier airmass in place, will
continue to keep the forecast for the first half of next week dry.
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jasons2k
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Update from Jeff:
A more normal early May air mass has blown into the region this morning from the western Gulf of Mexico with dewpoints well into the 60’s and some lower 70’s over the region.

An upper level ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and a large scale trough over the SW US will continue to fee this onshore flow for the remainder of the week. Smoke from agriculture fires burning in southern MX may at times travel northward into the area resulting in hazy conditions. Cannot rule out some drizzle or light rain showers under the strong capping inversion over the region today and Thursday.

Dryline over SW-NC TX will remain in that region through Friday and result in strong to severe thunderstorms from roughly Del Rio to west of Fort Worth both today and Thursday…this activity will remain west of our area.

Storm system over the plains will lift NE toward the Great Lakes late week and this will surge a surface cool front into our region. Previous guidance had this front stalling over the area this weekend, but the latest models go ahead and move it offshore by late Saturday. Most of the weather will be confined to SW/C TX Friday where strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Threat may transition into a heavy rainfall event over SC/C TX Friday evening where good low level influx is shown on a 35kt low level jet perpendicular to a slow moving surface boundary. Models are not overly aggressive with forecasted rainfall amounts even across SC/C TX Friday evening with a general 1-3 inches. Not sure they a fully grasping the amount of moisture nor the surface setup correctly as enough factors appear to be aligning to produce heavy rainfall.

Depending on what happens over C TX Friday evening will have a big influence on our weather Saturday. If a complex of thunderstorms develops and moves toward or into SE TX or pushes through the area then expect more stable conditions on Saturday. Should storms remain west of the area Friday night then the air mass over SE TX will become unstable on Saturday and showers and thunderstorms will develop along the advancing cool front during the day. Overall global model support does not show much activity over SE TX either Friday night or Saturday as they want to hang on to more Gulf of Mexico ridging in the upper levels. Will see what the short range guidance shows over the next 24 hours.

Jeff Lindner
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jasons2k
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NWS still not very optimistic with the timing of this front scheduled for the overnight hours & the trough axis shearing out. But as Jeff noted, it all depends on what happens Friday and may come down to nowcasting.
As the upper trough
starts shearing out Friday the associated cold front slows down
over TX edging toward the College Station/Crockett areas in the
afternoon and then slowly further south across the CWA in the
evening. Rain chances ramp up with the approach the front and
should peak during the late afternoon/evening hours. Storms will
be fairly slow moving but with loss of heating during the
timeframe expect the possibility of some brief heavy downpours
primarily across the northern tier of counties. Wind profiles
loose [sic] most of the their steam so don`t anticipate much in the way
of strong to severe storms. The cold front crawls down toward the
coast probably assisted with outflow by Sat 1 am to 5 am. The
front should bring in light northerly flow and drying with
Saturday afternoon still having some mid/high clouds but pleasant.
Last edited by jasons2k on Wed May 02, 2018 5:31 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Texaspirate11
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CONGRATULATIONS TO JEFF LINDER ON ITS BEING DECLARED:

JEFF LINDER DAY!

(I'm sorry I didn't post the photo - its really hard to post pictures on here....)

BUT i GOT THE NEWS OUT
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
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djmike
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FYI! Fun exciting event coming up here in Beaumont you guys may wanna make a small trip for!
***Only 5 days away!***
Come see the NOAA hurricane hunters at Jack Brooks Regional Airport in Nederland on May 8th. Tour two of the Hurricane Hunter aircraft, speak with the pilots, and walk through vendor exhibits from various local agencies and organizations. The event is FREE and the public is invited to attend from 2 pm to 5 pm!
https://www.weather.gov/lch/hat
Spread the news!!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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