MAY 2018 - Feelin Hot Hot Hot to end May

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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srainhoutx wrote:Keep an eye to the sky this afternoon. A weak upper air disturbance dropping S is already firing storms off early this morning on both sides of the Sabine River. We may see a repeat of last evenings fireworks provided by strong/severe thunderstorms.

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Looks like a repeat of yesterday. Caught in the squeeze of the ridge and Alberto, these cells can be pretty potent.

Sorry to hear about the damage - surprisingly severe.
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Upon inspection today, several fences were not just blown down but torn in half. Same with playsets. Some metal dog kennels were thrown from neighbors backyard over their house and across the street into other front yards. Radio antenna towers were blown down in the area, as well as quite a few trees. I just got done patching shingles on my roof in prep for the next round of BS should it erupt. :(
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srainhoutx
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Sunday afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Air mass appears primed for another rough over strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Weak short wave over deep east TX will move SSW and into SE TX during peak heating this afternoon. Radar already shows showers and thunderstorms along the Sabine River and developing over the Golden Triangle area. This activity should continue to move SSW/SW into an increasingly hot air mass with surface temperatures expected to reach the mid 90’s over the area. Inland moving seabreeze boundary will likely collide with SW moving outflow boundaries from storms over east TX this morning and was the case yesterday afternoon resulting in some severe wind gusts over the metro area.

With trigger temperatures in the low 90’s would expect activity to begin to develop by early afternoon and continue into the mid evening hours. Main threats from storms will be strong gusty winds and large hail along with brief heavy rainfall and lightning.

As a reminder, should adverse weather approach your location especially if on a boat seek safe shelter/harbor immediately.

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Katdaddy
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
211 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM...
GALVESTON BAY...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT.

* AT 211 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WATERSPOUTS WAS LOCATED NEAR ROLLOVER PASS...OR 8 NM NORTHEAST OF
EAST GALVESTON BAY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS.

HAZARD...WATERSPOUTS AND WIND GUSTS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER.

SOURCE...RADAR.

IMPACT...WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT COULD BE DAMAGED IN BRIEFLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SUDDENLY HIGHER WAVES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EAST GALVESTON BAY...ROLLOVER PASS...GALVESTON BAY ENTRANCE...
GALVESTON BAY...THE TEXAS CITY DIKE...NORTH JETTY...EAGLE POINT...
GALVESTON SHIP CHANNEL AND SOUTHERN TRINITY BAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY AS GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES ARE
EXPECTED.
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Katdaddy
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
240 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM...

GALVESTON BAY...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT.

* AT 238 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN
EAST GALVESTON BAY...MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

HAZARD...WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS.

SOURCE...RADAR.

IMPACT...SMALL CRAFT COULD BE DAMAGED IN BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SUDDENLY HIGHER WAVES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EAST GALVESTON BAY...GALVESTON BAY ENTRANCE...GALVESTON BAY...
THE TEXAS CITY DIKE...EAGLE POINT...TRINITY BAY...
GALVESTON SHIP CHANNEL AND GALVESTON CAUSEWAY.
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Katdaddy
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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
329 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

TXZ237-238-337-338-438-272115-
Inland Brazoria TX-Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula TX-
Inland Galveston TX-Coastal Galveston TX-Coastal Brazoria TX-
329 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 328 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Texas City, moving southwest at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and funnel clouds and waterspouts will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Galveston Causeway, Galveston Island West End, Texas City, La Marque,
Santa Fe, Hitchcock, Bayou Vista, Jamaica Beach, Tiki Island, Pelican
Island, Scholes Field and Offatts Bayou.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
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All quiet and hopefully it stays that way.
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srainhoutx
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I had a two minute sprinkle. Better than yesterday I suppose.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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I noticed an interesting phenomenon with last nights thunderstorm that blew through Atascocita. Just as the storm was approaching I noticed a low continuous roaring sound coming from above. All I could guess was that it was the sound of turbulent air or somehow I was hearing the updraft, then I was reading about "hail roar". Is it possible to have hail roar without hail actually making it to the ground?
Cromagnum
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Though folks in my area said they could see a funnel lit up by the lightning, what I'm betting happened was a pretty bad microburst. The damage pattern I saw looked to be more straight line.

The radar was sure ominous.
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Katdaddy
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Hot and mostly sunny weather can be expected through the week across SE TX. Alberto continues to weaken inland over SE US this morning.
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BlueJay
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Thank you for the important message about the difference between heat exhaustion and heat stroke, Katdaddy. It's only May and temps are already really heating up. Take care everyone!
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srainhoutx
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Not often we see an Upper Mexico Ridge anchored overhead and literally no clouds. This is beginning to remind me of May/June 1980... ;)
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05292018 1447Z CODGOES16-subregional-Texas.02.20180529.144727-over=map-bars=none.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Katdaddy
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And the heat continues onward.
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tireman4
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Please please be careful out there. This upper ridge is not going anywhere fast....

000
FXUS64 KHGX 301123
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 AM CDT Wed May 30 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR for majority of the day today. South winds could get a little
gusty (generally carrying 10 knots with gusts to around 20 knots)
mid morning through the afternoon. The south winds will persist
tonight (around 5 to 10 knots). For now, will keep TAFs VFR with
SCT015 developing overnight, but parts of the area (especially
west of our area) could become MVFR and/or IFR. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 333 AM CDT Wed May 30 2018/...

.DISCUSSION...

Hot weather ahead as we transition from May into June, and
meteorological summer will finally catch up with the summer we`ve
been experiencing for a bit now. Look for the heat index to max
out in triple digits for most locations away from the coast into
early next week at least. Additionally, both record warm mins and
record highs are possible - though the record warm mins seem more
likely than record highs. A weak front that looks to drop into the
area on Sunday does bring us our only chance of showers and
storms, and that chance will be slight. For this early summer
heat, a focus on heat safety will continue to be key.


.NEAR TERM [Through Thursday]...

Speckles of low clouds and localized fog are cropping up across
Southeast Texas, but for the large majority, skies are clear late
tonight. This general pattern looks to continue through morning,
and get us on a warm start for yet another day with highs in the
90s and afternoon heat indices above 100 degrees. More of the same
really, for Thursday. Some indications that the building ridge may
not dominate quite quickly enough, and we may see a bit more
overnight stratus tonight into Thursday morning. The impact will
be small, but may be just enough to keep us in the lower to
middle 90s rather than the middle to upper 90s, with things
looking pretty familiar otherwise.


.SHORT TERM [Thursday night Through Saturday Night]...

The upper ridge continues to strengthen and drift up from Mexico
into the Big Bend for the late week and weekend. This should keep
skies clear and let inland temperatures warm back up into the
middle and upper 90s. There may be a a few localized spots to
reach 100 degrees even. While I don`t explicitly forecast any
record highs here, they`re mighty close - so if I`m cool at all on
these temps, we could see tied or broken records. Perhaps a little
more likely may be record warm minimum temps, particularly at
Galveston. Helping things out on Saturday may be winds a bit more
southwesterly than southerly, which may let temps get even a
little bit higher still.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Wednesday]...

A weak boundary looks to drop down into the area Sunday, which
will gradually turn winds northwesterly up north, and more
westerly at the coast. The GFS is more aggressive with this
feature than the Euro, which washes it out in our north, with much
less impact towards the coast. If the timing is right to get
enough moisture, convergence on the front, and daytime
instability, we might be able squeeze some showers or storms out
of this. However, the column is quite warm, and we may simply stay
capped. As a result, rain chances even here are pretty low. But,
if it`s gonna happen, this is our best shot.

Regardless of how strong the boundary ends up being, the pocket
of "cold" air on the backside of the front will not really make it
down to us, but it may be a little less humid. As a result, don`t
look for temperatures to really drop much at all - just back us
away from the record temperature neighborhood. A little less
humidity may help a touch comfort-wise, but we`ll also be looking
at lighter winds early next week, so...maybe not. It`s Houston,
it`s summertime, and we`re clearly settling into the routine.


.MARINE...

Moderate south to southeast winds (around 10 to 15 knots)
and slightly higher seas (around 2 to 4 feet) can be ex-
pected through Saturday in response to lower pressures in/
around the Texas Panhandle area and higher pressures off
to our east. Caution flags will probably be needed tonight
through early Thursday morning as winds increase into a 15
to 20 knot range under a slightly tighter pressure gradient.
As a weak frontal boundary sags to the south toward the
area, a more southwesterly flow is expected to develop
Saturday night or Sunday. South to southwest winds are
anticipated to return to the area for the first half of
next week. 42

.CLIMATE...

Bush Intercontinental/City of Houston reached 90 degrees
yesterday, the 18th 90 degree day of the month. This ties the
record for most 90 degree days in May for Houston. Today`s high is
certain to reach 90 degrees, giving 2018 the record on its own,
and tomorrow is virtually certain to pad that record. Really, the
only thing stopping this string of 90 degree May days is the end
of May.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 97 76 95 76 97 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 95 77 93 77 95 / 0 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 88 81 87 81 88 / 10 10 10 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$
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DoctorMu
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Horrendous dew point of 75°F in CLL and on tap for a very hot day, but no rain. This is why I NEVER complain about winter weather in South Central and SE Texas! ;)

Not a great deal of relief in the long-terms through mid-June.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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DoctorMu wrote:Horrendous dew point of 75°F in CLL and on tap for a very hot day, but no rain. This is why I NEVER complain about winter weather in South Central and SE Texas! ;)

Not a great deal of relief in the long-terms through mid-June.
Yep, 30 degrees feels a 1000x more refreshing and comfortable than 100 and humid. The only way for me to be somewhat comfortable in this is to be in a swimsuit and that’s it.... and water better be nearby.
Team #NeverSummer
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tireman4
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Please be careful out there. I miss Winter...sigh
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 311456
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
956 AM CDT Thu May 31 2018

.UPDATE...
Few speckles on radar imagery this morning associated with the
cloud streets that have filled in across the region. Decided to
raise PoPs today to account for the possibility of a light shower
or two which may develop south of I-10. Cloud cover should
continue to increase through the morning hours until day time
heating helps to mix and lift the broken deck, leaving behind
scattered skies by this afternoon. The best cloud cover should be
contained to the coast where dew points are in the mid to upper
70s. High temperatures will be similar to yesterday, rising into
the upper 80s over the coastal counties to mid 90s further inland.
Breezy conditions today will provide a little relief to the heat,
with winds out of the south between around 10 mph.

Hathaway
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tireman4
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Question for our long range Met, Srain. Do you see any hopes of this ridge abating soon?
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