JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
stormlover
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We been getting hammered in Beaumont for the last hour n half
JasonFontaine
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Anyone else notice how when the rain approaches the League City area it dissipates? Almost like we have a little dome over us. Will this continue? I hope we get a little rain out of this system - not too much.....but our rainfall thus far has been minimal....I was hoping it would help with the dry conditions....any chance we might see something in a day or so....I know we've had LOTS of rain....just not us....barely ANY.....just hoping to not dry out too much once the system leaves.....thanks!
davidiowx
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It's a complicated forecast. Some areas can get 10" while other areas get an inch. As of now, our area is in the clear while the TX/LA boarder is getting inundated with rain. We still have a few more days with this system. So just keep watching and see what happens.

I for one, was hoping for more today, but that hasn't happened. Hopefully we will get some more, but be careful what you ask for with systems like this!
JasonFontaine
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Indeed....I feel for those in Beaumont....this system IS producing large rain amounts.....seemingly concentrated in one or a few more areas....just seems strange how DRY we are.....I guess I was hoping for the initial forecast of a more widespread event....we all need the rain....just not a few! :) That's the way it goes.....wish those in the affected areas best of luck....hopefully the gourds are dry enough to sustain this rainfall....
unome
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MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0322
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
625 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX...SOUTHWEST LA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 182225Z - 190425Z

SUMMARY...EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL RATES OF AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES/HR FALLING ON
TOP OF EARLIER HEAVY RAINS WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING WHICH MAY
BE SIGNIFICANT.

DISCUSSION...AN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE BAND WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE FAR UPPER TX COAST NEAR THE
BEAUMONT/PORT-ARTHUR AREA ALONG WITH ADJACENT AREAS OF EXTREME
SOUTHWEST LA TO TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LAKE CHARLES. ALREADY AS MUCH
AS 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED...AND THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS ADDITIONAL BANDS OF CONVECTION OFFSHORE OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS ADVANCING OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.

THE GOES-16 10.3 MICRON/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENCE
OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WHICH IS ALL FOCUSED
AROUND THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF A BROAD MID LEVEL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX COAST WHICH IS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY WEST. THE CONVECTION THOUGH IS BEING STRONGLY AIDED BY THE
PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST AND
THE STRONGLY CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THIS LOW LEVEL TROUGH COUPLED
WITH THE NOSE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS SUSTAINING THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION MEANWHILE IS
TRANSPORTING A DEEP COLUMN OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN GULF COAST REGION. IN FACT...THE PWATS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
BEEN IMPRESSIVELY HIGH...AND RANGING GENERALLY BETWEEN 2.3 AND 2.5
INCHES BASED ON HOURLY GPS-DERIVED DATA AND AN 18Z RAOB FROM KCRP.

HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES ARE IN PLACE GIVEN THE
CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE SEEN IN THE 500/300 MB LAYER AS PER THE
LATEST CIRA-LPW DATA AT 21Z. THIS COUPLED WITH THE VERY COLD
CONVECTIVE TOPS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES THAT
MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED 3 INCHES/HR.

THE LATEST HRRR/HRRRX GUIDANCE FROM 21Z SUPPORTS A SUSTAINABLE
CONVECTIVE BAND THROUGH MID-EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY...WITH
SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE
THE CASE IN AND AROUND THE BEAUMONT/PORT-ARTHUR AREA.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...
Cromagnum
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My house has been in the dry slot all day. Not even a half inch to show for it yet. Things better pick up soon.
FreeportTX35
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Cromagnum wrote:My house has been in the dry slot all day. Not even a half inch to show for it yet. Things better pick up soon.
Same here..
unome
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
557 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Jefferson County in southeastern Texas...
Orange County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1000 PM CDT.

* At 552 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain falling across the warned area. Two to four inches of
rain have fallen over the last six hours, with isolated amounts of
four to six inches from Sabine Pass to Port Arthur, Nederland, and
Groves Texas.

. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Nederland, Groves, Port Neches,
Vidor, Bridge City, West Orange, Central Gardens, Sabine Pass,
Bevil Oaks, Rose City, Pine Forest, Port Acres, Orangefield, La
Belle, Southeast Texas Regional Airport and Sea Rim State Park.

Additional rainfall amounts of two to three inches are possible in
the warned area as additional showers train from the Gulf across
Southeast Texas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

&&

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djmike
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We cant catch a break here in beaumont. Looks like another training influx about to hit us. Many having a hard time getting home from work with all the flooded roads and areas under water.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED TO 10:00 FOR THE BMT/PA JEFFERSON COUNTY AREA.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Andrew
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Beaumont/Port Arthur area is going to be under the gun for the next couple hours. Already seeing some flooding and it will only get worst. Models try and push some of this convection further west but we will have to wait and see when that happens. 850mb moisture transport still shows that areas to the east are receiving the best advection of deep moisture but that is forecast to slowly transition west. As always with these systems we will have to monitor for any nocturnal events that may want to setup.
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srainhoutx
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Always a reminder with these sloppy unnamed tropical events, there can be TS conditions and it's all semantics... ;)

Marine Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
602 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
602 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

...TROPICAL RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING...

A tropical wave approaching the Texas coast will continue to
produce bands of showers and isolated thunderstorms lifting
rapidly northwest across coastal waters this evening. Stronger
cells within these bands will be capable of producing wind gusts
up to 40 knots, and intense rainfall rates that reduce visibility
to less than one nautical mile.

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jasons2k
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I’m starting to get worried about the Golden Triangle area. It’s relentless.
davidiowx
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jasons wrote:I’m starting to get worried about the Golden Triangle area. It’s relentless.
I was thinking about that a few hours ago. They might be in trouble out there with the way this has set up.

I don’t recall any models having any heavier rain over there. So far it’s all been out in the Beaumont area.
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djmike
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Im here in Beaumont and we are being inundated. It has rained hard continuously all day. 2pm the training began and has been going strong for 5 hrs now. The training band shifted slightly west and we are being hammered once again. Road closures are taking place and any low lying areas are now flooded. Concerned about getting to work tomorrow as it looks like this training band extends just about out into the central gulf. Its a pipeline right into us. The road to my work hasbeen closed and if this keeps up throughout the night, work will be calling for employees to remain home for Tuesday. Its been said many many times with the tropical systems. Not one model over the few days progged Beaumont or SwLa for this training effect or this amount of rain in one day. It just proves the these storms and systems do what they want and laugh at computers we use to try and forecasts. They have a mind of their own and donwhat they want.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
davidiowx
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Be safe out there djmike. Don’t drive in that stuff and certainly don’t put your employees at risk if it continues through the night like it appears to want to do.
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djmike
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davidiowx wrote:Be safe out there djmike. Don’t drive in that stuff and certainly don’t put your employees at risk if it continues through the night like it appears to want to do.
Oh im stayimg put. Will assess im the morning before leaving for work. THank you!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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DoctorMu
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sau27 wrote:That's a lot of very's
As I said this is a nowcasting phenom. the midlevel organization has become a fly in the ointment. We didn't see much rain yesterday or today. A lot of easterly flux from Beaumont to the Woodlands - they are getting firehosed.
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DoctorMu
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davidiowx wrote:
jasons wrote:I’m starting to get worried about the Golden Triangle area. It’s relentless.
I was thinking about that a few hours ago. They might be in trouble out there with the way this has set up.

I don’t recall any models having any heavier rain over there. So far it’s all been out in the Beaumont area.
Models have underestimate the east side monsoonal like flow...not particularly as there is midlevel organization. Not sure why some models insisted that the greatest rain would be near the center. Rarely happens with this kind of system.

Potential for spin up tornadoes in the Golden Triangle.
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DoctorMu
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davidiowx wrote:Be safe out there djmike. Don’t drive in that stuff and certainly don’t put your employees at risk if it continues through the night like it appears to want to do.
It's not going to get better until the sun is down. I'm curious about nocturnal activity. Stay safe.
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srainhoutx
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that
a surface trough associated with a mid- and upper-level low
pressure system has remained stationary near the Texas coast during
the day. This system continues to produce a widespread area of
cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms, accompanied
by strong gusty winds, over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy
rainfall and flash flooding across portions of southern and
southeastern Texas are likely to continue during the next few days.
For more details on this disturbance and the threat for heavy
rainfall, please see products issued by your local weather office
and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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