July 2018: Weekend/Early Next Week Rain Chances

[Rip76]

Our weather in Southeast Texas seems to be fickle these last few years in the summer months.
Let’s hope for some nice evening sea breeze storms, with no drought-ish conditions.

Back to a normal pattern, if you will.

Chime in.

[BlueJay]

I like your vision Rip76! I guess we will soon find out.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

With it being July, I'll take an inch of rain per week, with that inch being spread out over 3-4 days each week.

[DoctorMu]

Rain is sporadic in July and August in College Station. About 2.5 in a year for both months. We often see pronged dry spell, that sometimes need tropical rains, moisture to break the spell. Rainfall has become increasingly variable in the last 25 years.

I’d take normal ( or rainy)

[Cromagnum]

Only thing coming for sure is heat, humidity, and mosquitoes.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Only thing coming for sure is heat, humidity, and mosquitoes.

I haven’t had a mosquito in 7 weeks thanks to the Spartan Mosquito Eradicator I purchased. I hung 4 at each corner of our 2 acre lot and haven’t seen a single one.

[Cromagnum]

Only thing coming for sure is heat, humidity, and mosquitoes.

I haven’t had a mosquito in 7 weeks thanks to the Spartan Mosquito Eradicator I purchased. I hung 4 at each corner of our 2 acre lot and haven’t seen a single one.

My approach is less green but works. I sprayed bifenthrin on my lawn for fire ants which works incredibly well. Bonus is it really knocks do wm the mosquito population.

[DoctorMu]

Only thing coming for sure is heat, humidity, and mosquitoes.

I haven’t had a mosquito in 7 weeks thanks to the Spartan Mosquito Eradicator I purchased. I hung 4 at each corner of our 2 acre lot and haven’t seen a single one.

Triazanon does mosquito control and limits cinch bugs - since we're in for drier, not weather.

Firponil >>> Bifen for fire ants, but you need an exterminator to lay down now. Hydromethylnon is OK.

[srainhoutx]

I m starting to see indications of showers/storm chances increasing in areal coverage early next week and possibly extending into the 4th of July. Both the GFS and ECWMF suggest the upper Ridge weakens as a an upper low develops in the NE Gulf and drifts West early next week. This may be a TUTT Low or Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough where most of the rains chances are generally East of the upper air feature, but need to see a couple of more days of data before fully buying any solution regarding our sensible weather for the 4th of July. Stay Tuned!

[CrashTestDummy]

Hoping it's dry-ish for July 4th. We're doing the fireworks display again for Lakeside CC, so the ability to stay dry, and have the grounds kind of hard so we can move the equipment in and out are bonus.

[wxman57]

Both the GFS and European model indicate a fair amount of daytime showers and thunderstorms on the 4th. A bit cooler than normal temps and greater than normal chance of rain.

[srainhoutx]

The GFS and ECMWF continue to advertise a fairly good chance for showers and storms Tuesday, Wednesday (July 4th) and possibly Thursday as an inverted trough passes along the Gulf Coast. The 12Z GFS is a tad more aggressive in the rainfall amounts than what it had been suggesting. Looks like a good 2 inches of rain from this feature may be possible. Nothing tropical associated with the inverted trough at this time is expected.

[DoctorMu]

The GFS and ECMWF continue to advertise a fairly good chance for showers and storms Tuesday, Wednesday (July 4th) and possibly Thursday as an inverted trough passes along the Gulf Coast. The 12Z GFS is a tad more aggressive in the rainfall amounts than what it had been suggesting. Looks like a good 2 inches of rain from this feature may be possible. Nothing tropical associated with the inverted trough at this time is expected.

Bring it!

Especially we northern counties.

[DoctorMu]

The GFS and ECMWF continue to advertise a fairly good chance for showers and storms Tuesday, Wednesday (July 4th) and possibly Thursday as an inverted trough passes along the Gulf Coast. The 12Z GFS is a tad more aggressive in the rainfall amounts than what it had been suggesting. Looks like a good 2 inches of rain from this feature may be possible. Nothing tropical associated with the inverted trough at this time is expected.

Bring it!

Especially we northern counties.

GFS, Canadian, ICON, ensemble still on board a retrograde-moving trough providing showers around the 4th and 5th.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z ECMWF still seems to be the aggressive outlier with this feature. The Euro has a weak 1011 low associated with the trough. Appears the origin of this inverted trough is associated with weekend storms near Atlanta that rounds the Eastern flank of the Upper Heat Ridge that is anchored across the Plains, Mid West into the Mid Atlantic Region and drops S and then heads West along the Gulf Coast toward Texas on July 4th.

[Texaspirate11]

Oh well dang......and here I was going for my 2nd year in a row win of our towns "4th of July Community Picnic" pie contest.....

[djmike]

Not a lot of chatter on this system mid week. Are we confident it won't turn into anything? And are we looking at several inches like last week or just a few?

[Texaspirate11]

Levi (TropicalTidbits) posted the EURO and it has it going into NOLA....
So its still kinda who knows.....

[wxman57]

Not a lot of chatter on this system mid week. Are we confident it won't turn into anything? And are we looking at several inches like last week or just a few?

It'll "turn into" some rain for us on the 4th. No tropical development. Euro has anywhere from 2-6 inches across SE TX next Wed/Thu. GFS isn't as wet, only indicating an inch or two. Good agreement that the weak upper-level disturbance will result in rain chances going way up centered on the 4th.

[srainhoutx]

Friday morning briefing from Jeff regarding the 4th of July:

Typical summer weather in place over the region with hot and mostly dry conditions with an isolated 20% chance of an afternoon thunderstorm…this will continue for the next couple of days.

Changes appear on the horizon as we start the 4th of July week as vorticity over the SE US begins to dig SSW around the building of a large upper level high pressure system that will bring dangerous heat to the Midwest and NE US this weekend into early next week. Easterly mid and upper level flow will begin to develop along the US Gulf coast early next week on the southern side of the large high pressure cell over the Midwest to NE US. Active weather over the NE Gulf of Mexico is forecasted to begin to shift westward and arrive into SE TX by late Tuesday into Wednesday. This feature will likely consists of an upper level trough and a surge of tropical moisture. Confidence is starting to increase that the period from late Tuesday into Thursday of next week will feature active showers and thunderstorms and some of these storms may contain very heavy rainfall.

Note: the much talked about Saharan Dust will be starting to arrive across SE TX today and encompass the entire area on Saturday into Sunday. Most of this dust is elevated well above the surface…above 5,000 ft, but at times some of the particles can drift to the surface and cause some breathing irritations. Such outbreaks of dust have occurred in past summers resulting in a hazy look to the sky over the area for a few days.