AUGUST 2018 - Scatterd Showers/Storms To End August

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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ticka1
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This month is usually the hottest month fir SE texas and usually see uptick in tropical action! Busy month with summer vacations winding down and kids and teachers going back to school. Will we be hot and dry or rainy and muggy?
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DoctorMu
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Ruff!
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srainhoutx
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As the calendar turns to August, attention may need to be focused on a wet phase of the MJO and a robust Convectively Couple Kelvin Wave arriving as August begins. I mentioned a week or so ago that there are some signals that the Main Development Region may not be as hostile as it is now and wind shear may begin to relax as we near mid August. Today in the weekly ENSO Update we see the Region 3.4 actually cooled which may indicate the return of El Nino may be delayed, or not happen at all until early next year. Let this serve as a reminder that the atmosphere does not always behave as our reliable models and long range forecaster believe it will. As we near the heart of Hurricane Season, let this serve as a reminder that it only take one to make for a very bad Hurricane Season. Time will tell.
07162018 MJO twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png
07162018 twc_mjoCCKW_vp200.png
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Ptarmigan
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August is when hurricane season starts to ramp up.

Some of the most devastating hurricanes occurred in August; Sea Islands (1893), San Ciriaco (1899), Monterrey (1909), Camille (1969), David (1979), Allen (1980), Alicia (1983), Andrew (1992), Charley (2004), Katrina (2005), Dean (2007), Irene (2011), and Harvey (2017).

Harvey and Katrina are the costliest hurricanes to date.
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srainhoutx
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The afternoon Updated CPC day 6 to 10 Outlooks suggests cooler air and wetter weather returns as July ends and August begins. I continue to see chances of rainfall extend into the mid August timeframe if the long range guidance is correct.
07252018 CPC 610temp_new.gif
07252018 CPC 610prcp_new.gif
Compared to last year, I see some resemblance of a familiar pattern which is somewhat interesting and a bit concerning as we near the 1 year Anniversary of Harvey.
07262017 814temp_new.gif
07262017 610prcp_new.gif
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South_Texas_Storms
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I agree with Steve, as the long range models are in decent agreement that a cooler and wetter weather pattern will be returning as we end July and head into August. The ridge looks to remain west and north of TX, possibly leading to unsettled conditions. Bring on the rain and cooler temperatures!
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srainhoutx
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The overnight ensemble guidance threw out a curveball regarding the Teleconnection Indices suggest a more significant Hemispheric Pattern change may be in the cards as we start August. We will need to monitor the 12Z suite of guidance to see if this is just a blip, or if it is a signal that more significant changes are brewing.

Regarding the next week, the deep trough still looks likely and if the ECMWF is correct, the trough may well be centered over Texas at the base of that trough appears to be anchored over our Region through Day 10. The front pushes offshore and stalls and a weak wave of low pressure develops offshore, but as of now is not that impressive. Chance chances look to increase next Monday through Wednesday at least with the stalled boundary nearby.

The long range GFS is indicating that the Monsoonal trough that has been well South across Africa is gaining some latitude suggesting thunderstorm complexes will splash into the Eastern Atlantic a bit further N as the tropical waves transition across the Atlantic/MDR. Sea Surface Temperature across the MDR have warmed a bit that past several days and the trade winds appear to be slowing and wind shear may be decreasing as well. We'll have a lot to watch in the weather department as we head toward peak Hurricane Season, so stay tuned.
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Texaspirate11
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Got to give a shout out to SAL for choking off anything that could develop
Although I've coughed through July giving it praise....
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As mentioned by Steve and others, the beginning of August looks favorable for increased moisture. Tuesday/Wednesday will likely be the best chance for rain locally but long range models hint that the strong grip ridging has had over the South over the last several weeks won't be nearly as strong for the first half of August. So keep your fingers crossed.

Looking at the tropics, I don't see any development (outside of something locally) occurring until well into August. SAL is doing an excellent job at chocking any storms coming off the coast of Africa and will continue for the next couple weeks. Stronger waves will start to exit the coast towards the middle of August but it may take two or more storms to really knock down all the dust. Furthermore, looking at the MJO, most models indicate a Western Pacific phasing will continue for the next two weeks but that could gradually push east into the Eastern Atlantic by mid-August. Either way, we are still over a month away from peak hurricane season.
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srainhoutx
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The overnight ensembles suggest the long awaited trough arrives Monday night into Tuesday as the heights fall as the Western Ridge retreats to the West Coast. I appears rains chances have dwindled somewhat, but there are some indications via the ECMWF schemes that Wednesday may bring a slightly better chance for scattered showers and storms. The Cool front should arrive Tuesday and stall somewhere across our Region before washing out late on Thursday. 850mb temps still look a bit cooler suggest rain chances may increase a bit next weekend with lower convective temperatures and moisture pooling along the Coast with a weakness over head.
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August has consistently been better than July in regards to rainfall since 2015.
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srainhoutx
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Over the past several cycles of the GEFS, an area of lowering pressure as been indicated across the Bay of Campeche and the Western Gulf around August 9th through August 12th. Individual ensemble members seem to be "sniffing" the potential of a weak surface low organizing in the Bay of Campeche moving N toward the Texas Coast. While it is far too soon to know with any certainty that anything will form, there is a wet phase of the MJO overhead with a rather vigorous CCKW crossing the Western Atlantic during that timeframe. It's getting to that time of year climatology speaking when attention even during a quiet Hurricane Season, we should monitor our backyard for any tropical mischief that may spin up. Tis that time of year!
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Cromagnum
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Bring on the rain. My yard is baked.

At least my escape to Colorado has been a welcome change in climate from the usual SE Texas garbage
FunNestle

^^Eh, as unbearable as summer can be, I'd still say that SE Texas has a far more desirable and equable climate than much of the country. Of course you can say that coastal California or Florida are more desirable, but by then we're just talking slivers of such a large landmass.
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jasons2k
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Rain chances lowered to 50% for tomorrow. Figures...

And today is another air quality alert day.
cperk
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jasons wrote:Rain chances lowered to 50% for tomorrow. Figures...

And today is another air quality alert day.

50% glass half full :) .
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tireman4
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FXUS64 KHGX 301459
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
959 AM CDT Mon Jul 30 2018

.UPDATE...

Watching the MCS in North Texas closely for impacts on us
downstream. As expected, activity to our north is ramping down
steadily. There is ample instability in our area, but we are also
pretty heavily capped this morning across all but Jackson and
Matagorda counties, and it shows with outflow racing out far ahead
what convection remains.

As a result, have stepped down PoPs in the immediate hours, but
a little further out, have nudged the numbers up slightly where I
expect the outflow boundary from the morning`s activity to settle
this afternoon. This alley will maximize surface convergence and
if we warm up enough to overcome the morning cap, this seems the
most likely spot for development. The various short range modeling
(HRRR, RAP, HREF members) seem to range from dry to widely
scattered convection along the boundary this afternoon into early
evening, which seems reasonable. I don`t expect things to get too
wild today, but with the instability and moisture present, expect
that at least a little something will fire off the boundary
today.

The real question this activity poses for the forecast going
forward is how remnant boundaries may sharpen or muddy the wind
field for the arrival of the cold front tomorrow, and impact on
convective potential. More on that later...

Luchs
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DoctorMu
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cperk wrote:
jasons wrote:Rain chances lowered to 50% for tomorrow. Figures...

And today is another air quality alert day.

50% glass half full :) .
Jason may be in better luck than in CLL. Early morning arrival dampens our chance of the wet stuff. Feels like a potential bust rainwise, although cooler and drier would be more pleasant than today.
mckinne63
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DoctorMu wrote:
cperk wrote:
jasons wrote:Rain chances lowered to 50% for tomorrow. Figures...

And today is another air quality alert day.

50% glass half full :) .
Jason may be in better luck than in CLL. Early morning arrival dampens our chance of the wet stuff. Feels like a potential bust rainwise, although cooler and drier would be more pleasant than today.
We got about an inch in Stafford this afternoon. It was coming down pretty hard. Was watching TV so didn't get a chance to get online and check the radar. Heard a few rumbles of thunder also.
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DoctorMu
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We have a broken line of storms moving SSE from Crockett to Round Rock. I've been running the sprinklers, so there's a chance... There's one nice cell if it can hold together that might be the ticket for rain.
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