AUGUST 2018 - Scatterd Showers/Storms To End August

[stormlover]

I have a bad feeling we could be tracking 2-3 storms heading into the Carrib/Gom in sept.

[jasons2k]

The overnight discussion from the NWS suggests decent chances of rain this week. We sure do need it.

DISCUSSION...
Light moist onshore flow in place this morning with temperatures
little different from the last few nights - mid to upper 70s/lower
to mid 80s on the coast. Scattered showers have been developing
over the eastern coastal waters to south of LCH. Upper level
ridging over NETX and an upper trough over the western Gulf. The
upper trough will move steadily westward today and Tuesday. This
in turn will help to drag in increasing moisture with PW rising
from 1.7 this morning to 2.1 by Tuesday afternoon. With the
increase in moisture should come an increase in rain chances.
Diurnally driven convection should be the norm this week. Rain
chances into the 30 to 50 percent range with lower chances to the
northwest and highest near the coast peaking Wednesday through
Sunday. Upper flow becomes northeasterly and weak short waves
should enhance rain chances as they move through the coastal area
but the timing of these is unlikely to be well resolved at this
time. Suffice it to say the chances for rain are increasing and
the region should get some much needed rainfall in the coming
week. Temperatures will be down a degree or two from the high
values a few days ago and a few sites if the rain shows up in a
timely matter could hold afternoon temperatures in the 80s. The
extended guidance has been indicating a weakness sliding across
the southern Gulf with radically different levels of organization
Sunday through Wednesday next week. Keep in mind that often the
extended guidance waffles around spurious solutions - is it
possible yes is it something to get worried about not yet - but
aware of yes.

[Rip76]

This morning we have the first signs that Fall is fast approaching. Winter Weather Advisories are hoisted across the Northern Rockies in Montana and Wyoming. These are the first of the upcoming Meteorological Fall that starts September 1st. Not too much longer and we'll be tracking that first real push of Fall air slipping into Texas...

And the "love bugs" are out as well.

[stormlover]

do you know when Rita, Ike, Harvey, hit love bugs came out about 2 weeks before.

[Rip76]

[snowman65]

I was JUST about to ask how things were looking for our first decent shot of coolness....timing???

This morning we have the first signs that Fall is fast approaching. Winter Weather Advisories are hoisted across the Northern Rockies in Montana and Wyoming. These are the first of the upcoming Meteorological Fall that starts September 1st. Not too much longer and we'll be tracking that first real push of Fall air slipping into Texas...

[stormlover]

The system ive been saying we need to watch euro now has weak trop storm hitting north of corpus next thurs. !!!!

[Katdaddy]

Another day of scattered tropical showers and thunderstorms across SE TX with short-lived funnel clouds and waterspouts possible along the Upper TX Coast with the tropical airmass in place.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
304 AM CDT Tue Aug 28 2018

TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>438-282100-
Northern Liberty-Inland Harris-Chambers-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson-Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-Southern Liberty-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-Matagorda Islands-Brazoria Islands-Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-Including the cities of Liberty, Cleveland, Dayton, Houston, Winnie, Mont Belvieu, Anahuac, Stowell, Old River-Winfree, El Campo, Wharton, Missouri City, Mission Bend, Sugar Land, Rosenberg, First Colony, Pecan Grove, Edna, Ganado, Bay City, Pearland, Alvin, Angleton, League City, Friendswood, Devers,
Pasadena, Baytown, Palacios, Lake Jackson, Freeport, Clute, Texas City, Dickinson, La Marque, Surfside Beach, and Galveston 304 AM CDT Tue Aug 28 2018

...FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE TODAY...

A very moist tropical air mass is in place today and short lived funnel clouds and waterspouts will be possible. These features will be short lived and difficult to detect with radar. If a funnel cloud forms, it may briefly extend to the ground and become a tornado. Although these features are weak, they are still dangerous and one should keep a lengthy distance from them, if possible. Continue to monitor NOAA weather radio or local media for possible warnings

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Upper level ridge that has been over the area for the last few weeks is shifting toward the OH valley opening the door for increasing Gulf moisture.

Center of the upper level high pressure cell that had been centered over TX last week has moved into the SE US and OH Valley. This has placed our region on the southern flank of this feature and helping to direct plumes of tropical moisture in our direction. LCH and CRP soundings have shown an increase in moisture over the weekend and with that has come the arrival of scattered morning coastal showers and afternoon inland showers and thunderstorms. Best rain chances will continue to focus along and SE of a line from Livingston to Hempstead to Wharton where the upper ridging is weakest and moisture deepest.

Will hold 40-50% rain chances each day through the entire week and into the weekend as pattern does not change much. Weak tropical waves moving WNW across the Gulf of Mexico and into the TX coast will enhance rainfall coverage on certain days through the period. Given the high moisture content over the region…rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour will be possible, but these heavy showers/thunderstorms will be scattered so not everyone will actually see rain at their location on a given day.

Labor Day Weekend/Next Week (Tropics):
Protective ridge remains over the SE US with deep ESE/SE steering flow of moisture from the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico and the NW Gulf. A couple of tropical waves that have moved off the coast of Africa will likely arrive into the region from Cuba to the Bahamas this weekend into next week. Some of the global computer models are suggesting that one of these waves may attempt to sharpen and try and close off a surface low in the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Overall upper level pattern of lowering surface pressures “beneath” or south of a stout upper level ridge is a common pattern indicator for attempts at tropical development. Background state of the Atlantic basin will also become increasingly favorable for tropical development as dry sinking air is replaced with increasingly moist rising air…we are already starting to see signs of this with enhancement of the convection along the monsoon trough in the tropical Atlantic and more robust convection with waves leaving Africa.

It is too early to attempt to resolve what may eventually transpire over the Gulf of Mexico next week. I will caution that model guidance can have wild swings in solutions from run to run and between the different models so making any sort of conclusion on one particular model run is not advised. For now will continue the extended forecast with daily rain chances in the 40-50% range and climo wind and seas until a better consensus develops on what may eventually happen.

[tireman4]

HGX Forecast Today

[DoctorMu]

The models right now have a weak GoM system near the Louisiana coast next week. Something to keep our eyes on. I don't have that sense of dread like a week out with Harvey. Increased shower activity today, and even tomorrow up in the Brazos Valley. Sunday features another good chance of showers for us.

It's tough to titrate the watering (affordable while providing trees extra water and avoiding disease) - I see the beginnings of cinch bugs in one area of the front that needs attention. Triazanon and spot watering to come!

[unome]

I saw a blob of precip on WPC's days 6-7 QPF this morning & looked a bit further, I am looking forward to better rain chances

Loop of 6-Hourly QPF for Days 1-7 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpfloop_6hr_d17.html

Loop of sea-level pressures and fronts through day 7 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

[jasons2k]

0.00"

[tireman4]

HGW Weather Forecast 08 29 18

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 291239
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
739 AM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018

.AVIATION...
PW values above 2.00 inches and convective temperatures near 90
degrees will allow for another day of scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms. Leaned toward the HRRR for timing. An
inverted V signature will support the mention of wind gusts in the
TAFs. Mainly VFR conditions except in and near storms. Skies will
clear between 00-02z with scattered clouds returning after 09z. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018/

DISCUSSION...
An inverted trough over South Texas is continuing to rotate in
Gulf moisture as onshore flow persists at the surface. PWs near or
above 2" are spread across the CWA, so expect isolated shower
activity this morning to become more widespread as we continue
throughout the day. As the showers and thunderstorms gradually
spread farther inland through the afternoon and evening hours,
BUFR soundings indicate an inverted-v signature and CAPE in the
2000-3000 J/kg range. Therefore, the threat for gusty winds and
frequent lightning exists with any of the stronger storms. Mean
cloud layer winds will be near 5 kts, so any storms that develop
will be slow moving. Coupled with PWs in the 2.2-2.3" range, there
is also a threat for heavy rainfall with any longer-lived storms,
which will likely exist along the seabreeze or near any areas of
outflow boundary interaction. Overall, coverage should be similar
to what was seen yesterday, so POPs were kept in the 30-50 range.
High temperature forecast today is largely dependent upon the
convective activity and timing. Any areas that see storms in the
early afternoon near the coast will likely top out near 90, while
areas with convection in the mid to late afternoon will stay in
the low to mid 90s. For areas without rain today, expect highs in
the mid to upper 90s.

An upper level ridge builds over West Texas tomorrow with heights
up to 594 dm. This will help suppress convective activity for the
inland areas and keep diurnal convection generally along and south
of I-10. High temperatures will get into the mid to upper 90s
farther inland where convection doesn`t reach. Drier air at mid-
levels moves in Friday, so inland areas will once again have lower
chances for precip than areas along and south of I-10. Convection
through the remainder of the week will be diurnally driven with
enhancement likely along the seabreeze and with any interacting
outflow boundaries.

For Labor Day Weekend, a series of inverted troughs and vort maxes
will progress across the Western Gulf as the upper-level high over
West Texas dampens. This will result in periods of showers and
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours, for the
remainder of the forecast period. The increase in rain chances and
cloud cover will help keep temperatures near average for this
time of year, with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the
70s.

22

MARINE...
High pressure over the eastern U.S. and low pressure over the
central plains will maintain a light to moderate onshore flow into
next week. The Galveston Beach Patrol has reported strong rip
currents and a rip current statement may be required later today.
Wind speeds over the Gulf will be slightly stronger at night.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
forecast period (especially late nights and mornings) as deeper
moisture in the Eastern Gulf spreads into the area. Expect locally
higher winds and waves in and around any storms. Conditions are
also favorable for brief funnel clouds and waterspouts.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 75 96 75 98 / 40 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 90 76 93 76 94 / 50 10 40 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 89 82 88 82 88 / 40 30 40 20 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...22
Aviation/Marine...43

[ticka1]

Storming bad here in Chambers County. With lots of lightning and thunder.

Can someone remind me how to post an image here - do i have to use photobucket or some type of online storage?

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Highly active morning over extreme SE TX…now moving into the Galveston Bay and metro areas.

Upper air disturbance moving westward along the Louisiana coast overnight has sparked a large cluster of showers and thunderstorms that has become fairly organized this morning. This activity is moving westward at 5-10mph and will impact much of the metro region over the next 1-3 hours and then the western and southwestern portions of SE TX this afternoon.

Slow storm motions are resulting in a quick 1-2 inches of rainfall under the heaviest cells this morning. Moisture levels remain extremely high (PWS 2.1-2.3 inches) which will continue to support high rainfall rates.

Overall little change in the upper air pattern into next week with high pressure over the SE US and an ESE/E steering flow across the Gulf aimed at TX. This will bring tropical waves and waves of moisture toward the area. Will go with 40-60% rain chances each day through much of next week. Landfall of tropical waves will be days on rainfall enhancement.

Tropics:
Watching the weak tropical wave near the NE Leeward Islands this morning as this feature is what some global models have been hinting at with some development potential over the Bahamas or in the northern Gulf of Mexico next week. New wave moving off the west coast of Africa today has a 50% chance of development over the next 5 days.

[jasons2k]

Well this just figures. Nice area of new storms forming just to my west, along I-45. The area upstream from me to the east is falling apart. Good chance I will get stuck in the middle with nothing...yet again...

[Cromagnum]

Nasty bow echo headed to Lake Jackson area.

And just as quickly as I say that, outflows spit out in all directions and it's widening out.

[tireman4]

From TxDot