AUGUST 2018 - Scatterd Showers/Storms To End August

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sambucol
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stormlover wrote:yeah good chance but long ways out.
Thanks. That's what I thought.
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Belmer
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stormlover wrote:yep belmer!!! not trying to scare anyone but could be lke a rita type track
Well that wasn't my intention to scare anyone by what I said. I see your point on the track of how those storms played out, but I see nothing on the magnitude (as far as strength) coming into the GoM. All I am seeing right now is an increase in moisture entering the eastern GoM beginning late next week into the weekend. Any tropical moisture that does make its way over Florida has a good chance of making its way across the Gulf and just increasing rain chances for our area... but I see no threat to TX when it comes to anything tropical right now.
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Katdaddy
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A very peaceful weather evening across SE TX with a calm Atlantic Basin. This is the time of year when I reflect on past tropical cyclones that have made landfall along the Upper and Middle TX Coast. Just a few to share this evening:

1 year since Hurricane Harvey
10 years since Hurricane IKE
17 years since TS Allison
35 years since Hurricane Alicia
39 years since TS Claudette
48 years since Hurricane Celia
57 years since Hurricane Carla
75 years since the 1943 “Surprise Hurricane” during WWII
103 years since the 1915 Hurricane
118 years since the Galveston 1900 Hurricane

TS Claudette 1979 was a localized extreme flooding event that I thought I would never see again in my lifetime…..only 11 at the time.

TS Claudette: Alvin, Texas, was deluged by 43 inches of rain in 24 hours from July 24-25, 1979, setting an all-time record 24-hour rainfall for the U.S. Still awaiting Hawaii’s 49.69” in 24 hours to be official and break the Alvin, TX record for the US.

Fast forward to 2018 and now 49 year’s old we had Harvey. TS Claudette’s lazy brother who drifted across SE TX and SW LA dumping epic rainfall totals over multiple days. That late Saturday and early Sunday morning a year ago had the same extreme rainfall rates I remember from Claudette in Pearland 1979. Mom and Dad’s home did not flood in Claudette, Allison, or Harvey. Lets hope the rest of the 2018 Hurricane Season remains quiet but this is the time to be ready.
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Rip76
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I’m guessing no rain today either.
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jasons2k
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Yeah, no rain here. Tomorrow is another air quality alert day. I believe this will be a whole week now of air quality alert days. Yuck, just yuck.
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srainhoutx
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Right on cue, the models as well as satellite imagery show a couple of upper lows (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs) meandering E, one South of Louisiana and another nearing the Florida Straights beneath the underbelly of the Upper Ridge that has kept us dry and our atmosphere capped for the most part this past week. The Upper Heat Ridge is moving further away and Gulf moisture has returned with PW's around 2 inches and convective temperatures in the low to mid 90's. Isolated showers and storms should gradually increase to a more scattered chance as the work week progresses. Slight higher rainfall chance may need to be increased for late week into next weekend as an inverted trough is showing up in a general weakness over Texas during the Labor Holiday Weekend.

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unome
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the increased precip chances in our forecast this week are like music to my ears :)
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Rip76
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What is this that has been falling out of the sky for 20min?
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Katdaddy
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Scattered showers offshore this morning will translate inland this afternoon which will be the theme through the week.

From this morning’s Houston-Galveston Area Forecast discussion regarding the extended period:

The extended guidance has been indicating a weakness sliding across the southern Gulf with radically different levels of organization Sunday through Wednesday next week. Keep in mind that often the extended guidance waffles around spurious solutions - is it possible yes is it something to get worried about not yet - but aware of yes.
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srainhoutx
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This morning we have the first signs that Fall is fast approaching. Winter Weather Advisories are hoisted across the Northern Rockies in Montana and Wyoming. These are the first of the upcoming Meteorological Fall that starts September 1st. Not too much longer and we'll be tracking that first real push of Fall air slipping into Texas... ;)
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I have a bad feeling we could be tracking 2-3 storms heading into the Carrib/Gom in sept.
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jasons2k
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The overnight discussion from the NWS suggests decent chances of rain this week. We sure do need it.
DISCUSSION...
Light moist onshore flow in place this morning with temperatures
little different from the last few nights - mid to upper 70s/lower
to mid 80s on the coast. Scattered showers have been developing
over the eastern coastal waters to south of LCH. Upper level
ridging over NETX and an upper trough over the western Gulf. The
upper trough will move steadily westward today and Tuesday. This
in turn will help to drag in increasing moisture with PW rising
from 1.7 this morning to 2.1 by Tuesday afternoon. With the
increase in moisture should come an increase in rain chances.
Diurnally driven convection should be the norm this week. Rain
chances into the 30 to 50 percent range with lower chances to the
northwest and highest near the coast peaking Wednesday through
Sunday. Upper flow becomes northeasterly and weak short waves
should enhance rain chances as they move through the coastal area
but the timing of these is unlikely to be well resolved at this
time. Suffice it to say the chances for rain are increasing and
the region should get some much needed rainfall in the coming
week. Temperatures will be down a degree or two from the high
values a few days ago and a few sites if the rain shows up in a
timely matter could hold afternoon temperatures in the 80s. The
extended guidance has been indicating a weakness sliding across
the southern Gulf with radically different levels of organization
Sunday through Wednesday next week. Keep in mind that often the
extended guidance waffles around spurious solutions - is it
possible yes is it something to get worried about not yet - but
aware of yes.
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Rip76
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srainhoutx wrote:This morning we have the first signs that Fall is fast approaching. Winter Weather Advisories are hoisted across the Northern Rockies in Montana and Wyoming. These are the first of the upcoming Meteorological Fall that starts September 1st. Not too much longer and we'll be tracking that first real push of Fall air slipping into Texas... ;)

And the "love bugs" are out as well.
stormlover
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do you know when Rita, Ike, Harvey, hit love bugs came out about 2 weeks before.
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Rip76
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snowman65
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I was JUST about to ask how things were looking for our first decent shot of coolness....timing???
srainhoutx wrote:This morning we have the first signs that Fall is fast approaching. Winter Weather Advisories are hoisted across the Northern Rockies in Montana and Wyoming. These are the first of the upcoming Meteorological Fall that starts September 1st. Not too much longer and we'll be tracking that first real push of Fall air slipping into Texas... ;)
stormlover
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The system ive been saying we need to watch euro now has weak trop storm hitting north of corpus next thurs. !!!!
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Katdaddy
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Another day of scattered tropical showers and thunderstorms across SE TX with short-lived funnel clouds and waterspouts possible along the Upper TX Coast with the tropical airmass in place.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
304 AM CDT Tue Aug 28 2018

TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>438-282100-
Northern Liberty-Inland Harris-Chambers-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson-Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-Southern Liberty-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-Matagorda Islands-Brazoria Islands-Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-Including the cities of Liberty, Cleveland, Dayton, Houston, Winnie, Mont Belvieu, Anahuac, Stowell, Old River-Winfree, El Campo, Wharton, Missouri City, Mission Bend, Sugar Land, Rosenberg, First Colony, Pecan Grove, Edna, Ganado, Bay City, Pearland, Alvin, Angleton, League City, Friendswood, Devers,
Pasadena, Baytown, Palacios, Lake Jackson, Freeport, Clute, Texas City, Dickinson, La Marque, Surfside Beach, and Galveston 304 AM CDT Tue Aug 28 2018

...FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE TODAY...

A very moist tropical air mass is in place today and short lived funnel clouds and waterspouts will be possible. These features will be short lived and difficult to detect with radar. If a funnel cloud forms, it may briefly extend to the ground and become a tornado. Although these features are weak, they are still dangerous and one should keep a lengthy distance from them, if possible. Continue to monitor NOAA weather radio or local media for possible warnings
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srainhoutx
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Tuesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Upper level ridge that has been over the area for the last few weeks is shifting toward the OH valley opening the door for increasing Gulf moisture.

Center of the upper level high pressure cell that had been centered over TX last week has moved into the SE US and OH Valley. This has placed our region on the southern flank of this feature and helping to direct plumes of tropical moisture in our direction. LCH and CRP soundings have shown an increase in moisture over the weekend and with that has come the arrival of scattered morning coastal showers and afternoon inland showers and thunderstorms. Best rain chances will continue to focus along and SE of a line from Livingston to Hempstead to Wharton where the upper ridging is weakest and moisture deepest.

Will hold 40-50% rain chances each day through the entire week and into the weekend as pattern does not change much. Weak tropical waves moving WNW across the Gulf of Mexico and into the TX coast will enhance rainfall coverage on certain days through the period. Given the high moisture content over the region…rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour will be possible, but these heavy showers/thunderstorms will be scattered so not everyone will actually see rain at their location on a given day.

Labor Day Weekend/Next Week (Tropics):
Protective ridge remains over the SE US with deep ESE/SE steering flow of moisture from the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico and the NW Gulf. A couple of tropical waves that have moved off the coast of Africa will likely arrive into the region from Cuba to the Bahamas this weekend into next week. Some of the global computer models are suggesting that one of these waves may attempt to sharpen and try and close off a surface low in the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Overall upper level pattern of lowering surface pressures “beneath” or south of a stout upper level ridge is a common pattern indicator for attempts at tropical development. Background state of the Atlantic basin will also become increasingly favorable for tropical development as dry sinking air is replaced with increasingly moist rising air…we are already starting to see signs of this with enhancement of the convection along the monsoon trough in the tropical Atlantic and more robust convection with waves leaving Africa.

It is too early to attempt to resolve what may eventually transpire over the Gulf of Mexico next week. I will caution that model guidance can have wild swings in solutions from run to run and between the different models so making any sort of conclusion on one particular model run is not advised. For now will continue the extended forecast with daily rain chances in the 40-50% range and climo wind and seas until a better consensus develops on what may eventually happen.


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