SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up
- srainhoutx
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Breaking: The NHC has designated the NW Caribbean area of Disturbed Weather as INVEST 95L
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NHC probably declared it an invest due to a little more support from the GFS. With that said still don't expect much development over the next couple days. Any development will likely occur right before landfall.
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1. Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
western Cuba, associated with a surface trough, are showing some
signs of organization. This system is forecast to move slowly
northwestward near the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday with limited
development. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more
conducive for development on Wednesday when the system moves over
the southern Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression could form
on Thursday or Friday while the disturbance moves across the
western Gulf of Mexico. Interests across northeastern Mexico and
the coast of Texas and Louisiana should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are likely over western Cuba through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
western Cuba, associated with a surface trough, are showing some
signs of organization. This system is forecast to move slowly
northwestward near the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday with limited
development. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more
conducive for development on Wednesday when the system moves over
the southern Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression could form
on Thursday or Friday while the disturbance moves across the
western Gulf of Mexico. Interests across northeastern Mexico and
the coast of Texas and Louisiana should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are likely over western Cuba through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Andrew wrote:NHC probably declared it an invest due to a little more support from the GFS. With that said still don't expect much development over the next couple days. Any development will likely occur right before landfall.
The NHC has a little different take on this system in my opinion.
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euro looks south tx bound
honest thoughts on 95L will SE Texas see anything and will it develop?
- srainhoutx
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Midday briefing from Jeff for 95L:
Residents along the coasts from Louisiana to NE MX should closely monitor this system
NHC has increased the odds of development of this feature to 50%.
While surface observations continue to indicate a fairly uniform SE wind profile through the wave axis, thunderstorms activity is generally increasing and banding features are becoming more frequent on the eastern and SE flanks of the wave axis. This wave will move slowly NW into the Gulf of Mexico this week where upper level winds are expected to become slightly more favorable for development. The wave is forecast to move toward the WNW and NW in the general direction of the TX coast. Forecast models are becoming a little more bullish on the development of this feature over the NW Gulf of Mexico late this week, with varying solutions as the system nears the NW Gulf coast.
The forecast is likely to see significant changes over the coming days and residents are urged to check the forecast at least daily for changes.
Residents along the TX coast should review their tropical storm and hurricane plans. Now would be a good time to make sure those hurricane kits are fully stocked.
Residents along the coasts from Louisiana to NE MX should closely monitor this system
NHC has increased the odds of development of this feature to 50%.
While surface observations continue to indicate a fairly uniform SE wind profile through the wave axis, thunderstorms activity is generally increasing and banding features are becoming more frequent on the eastern and SE flanks of the wave axis. This wave will move slowly NW into the Gulf of Mexico this week where upper level winds are expected to become slightly more favorable for development. The wave is forecast to move toward the WNW and NW in the general direction of the TX coast. Forecast models are becoming a little more bullish on the development of this feature over the NW Gulf of Mexico late this week, with varying solutions as the system nears the NW Gulf coast.
The forecast is likely to see significant changes over the coming days and residents are urged to check the forecast at least daily for changes.
Residents along the TX coast should review their tropical storm and hurricane plans. Now would be a good time to make sure those hurricane kits are fully stocked.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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