SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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srainhoutx
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Reconnaissance Assets starting to get a little thin...

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WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0200 PM EDT TUE 11 SEPTEMBER 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2018
         TCPOD NUMBER.....18-110

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE FLORENCE
       FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49         FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
       A. 13/0000Z                   A. 12/2330Z,13/0530Z
       B. NOAA9 1206A FLORENCE       B. AFXXX 1306A FLORENCE
       C. 12/1730Z                   C. 12/2130Z
       D. NA                         D. 31.1N 73.1W
       E. NA                         E. 12/2300Z TO 13/0530Z
       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 73
       A. 13/1130Z,1430Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 1406A FLORENCE
       C. 13/1000Z
       D. 32.6N 75.2W
       E. 13/1100Z TO 13/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. TROPICAL STORM ISAAC
       FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 42         FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42
       A. 12/2330Z,13/0530Z          A. 13/1130Z,1730Z
       B. NOAA2 0209A ISAAC          B. NOAA2 0309A ISAAC
       C. 12/2130Z                   C. 13/1000Z
       D. 14.7N 57.1W                D. 15.1N 59.9W
       E. 12/2300Z TO 13/0530Z       E. 13/1100Z TO 13/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    3. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74         FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
       A. 12/1800Z                   A. 13/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE
       C. 12/1645Z                   C. 13/0945Z
       D. 25.0N 91.0W                D. 25.5N 92.5W
       E. 12/1730Z TO 12/2230Z       E. 13/1100Z TO 13/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
       G. RESOURCES PERMITTING       G. RESOURCES PERMITTING

    4. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES ON FLORENCE WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS
          A THREAT.
       B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON ISAAC.
       C. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON GULF SUSPECT SYSTEM IF IT
          DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT, RESOURCES PERMITTING.

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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The ECMWF is again a bit more aggressive developing 95L.
09112018 12Z 96 ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_5.png
The attachment 09112018 12Z 72 ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_4.png is no longer available
09112018 12Z 72 ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_4.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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mcheer23
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srainhoutx wrote:The ECMWF is again a bit more aggressive developing 95L.
09112018 12Z 48 ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_3.png
09112018 12Z 72 ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_4.png
09112018 12Z 96 ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_5.png

Bit further north as well......
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srainhoutx
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HGX cancels Flash Flood Watch for our SE Texas Region.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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mcheer23 wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:The ECMWF is again a bit more aggressive developing 95L.

Bit further north as well......
Yeah. Pressure falls are beginning across the Yucatan Channel and just N of the Yucatan Peninsula. That is usually indicative of a broad area of low pressure attempting to develop along the Northern end of the Wave Axis.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Jeff Lindner Update
Scott747
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That first recon plan/fix is about 300 miles due e of Brownsville.

Extrapolating what I'm guessing will be the expected track put a baffin bay to matagorda bay landfall of whatever comes of 95l.
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Come Friday morning, we could have 5 named active systems in the Atlantic/GOM.

If that happens, I believe that's a first?
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Texaspirate11
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Scott747 wrote:That first recon plan/fix is about 300 miles due e of Brownsville.

Extrapolating what I'm guessing will be the expected track put a baffin bay to matagorda bay landfall of whatever comes of 95l.
Thats all this area needs after Harvey
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djmike
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So what's you guys thoughts on this going or turning further up the coast affecting the IAH/BPT area?
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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