SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Texaspirate11
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FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of south central Texas and
southeast Texa
s...including the following counties...in south
central Texas...Coastal Jackson. In southeast Texas...Brazoria
Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...
Coastal Harris...Coastal Matagorda...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...
Inland Matagorda...Matagorda Islands and Southern Liberty.

* From midnight CDT tonight through Thursday evening

* Additional heavy rainfall is expected overnight tonight into
tomorrow. An additional widespread 1 to 2 inches with isolated 4
inches of rainfall are possible across the watch area.

* Given the already saturated conditions, street flooding is
likely with some isolated flash flooding also possible where the
heaviest rain occurs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
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ticka1
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looking into next week seems we are getting back into a dry pattern. any hints of cooler weather?
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srainhoutx
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Oh and if our Gulf disturbance does get named, it will be Kirk. Subtropical Storm Joyce just formed near the Azores.
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srainhoutx
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Wednesday afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Four active named storms currently in the Atlantic basin with Joyce having formed in the far north Atlantic this afternoon

95L:
Satellite images suggest that a broad area of surface low pressure has formed today over the south-central Gulf of Mexico and thunderstorms activity has increased somewhat although it remains fairly disorganized. Based on the current data there is a 70% chance that a tropical depression will form in the next 24 hours over the western Gulf of Mexico. This feature is generally moving toward the NW at around 10mph and will be approaching the lower or middle TX coast on Friday. Conditions across the NW Gulf of Mexico will gradually become more favorable for the development of a tropical depression or storm over the next 24-36 hours and it is possible if not likely that the broad surface low will consolidate as it nears the coast on Friday.

Regardless of this system being declared a tropical storm or depression, the impacts along the TX coast will be nearly the same….heavy rainfall and potential flooding.

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued from midnight tonight to 700pm Thursday for all the coastal counties and SE Harris County where rainfall over the last 2-3 days has averaged 3-6 inches with isolated totals of up to 10 inches. Grounds over these areas are saturated and additional rainfall is expected to develop again overnight and impact many of these same areas.

Rainbands from 95L will begin to spread onto the TX coast late Thursday and increase into Thursday night and Friday and continue into Saturday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches will be common mainly south of I-10 tonight-Saturday night with isolated totals of 6-8 inches. North of I-10 rainfall amounts will likely average 1-3 inches with isolated totals of up to 4 inches. There is still some uncertainty with these rainfall numbers and they could change up or down in the next 24-48 hours.

The greatest threat for flooding will be over the areas that have experienced the most rainfall over the last several days or generally across the coastal counties and into SE Harris County and then further inland over the coastal bend and SW TX where rainfall has been plentiful and rivers already running high.

Will maintain winds of 10-20mph inland and 15-25mph along the coast an offshore unless the system becomes stronger than currently expected.

Tides will run about 1.0-1.5 feet above predicted levels along the coast with total water levels of 3.0-3.5 feet above MLLW which is generally below thresholds needed to cause issues along Bolivar, the west end of Galveston and along the west side of Galveston Bay.

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Rip76
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8 PM TWO:


A broad area of low pressure is located over the central Gulf of
Mexico. Although the shower activity is still disorganized,
upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for
development, and it is likely that a tropical depression will form
Thursday or Thursday night, before the system reaches the western
Gulf coast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow, if necessary.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
expected across portions of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and
Louisiana late this week. Interests there should monitor the
progress of this system, and refer to products from their local
weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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The RGEM is juicy

Image
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0z Euro run is intersting and *gasp* gives some credence to the Canadian.

Issac is headed towards the yucatan channel moving wnw.
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Scott747 wrote:0z Euro run is intersting and *gasp* gives some credence to the Canadian.

Issac is headed towards the yucatan channel moving wnw.
Yep. Most interesting run of the Euro yet with Isaac.
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Cpv17 wrote:
Scott747 wrote:0z Euro run is intersting and *gasp* gives some credence to the Canadian.

Issac is headed towards the yucatan channel moving wnw.
Yep. Most interesting run of the Euro yet with Isaac.
So far is eerily similar to the Canadian. Should begin to go more to the N.
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Moving nw at hr 216 about 300 mi s of houma.
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Scott747 wrote:Moving nw at hr 216 about 300 mi s of houma.
Looks like a cat 1. Ensembles will be very interesting.
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Euro has landfall near Cameron, LA as a cat 1 or 2 cane. Model watching in full force now.

Image
Scott747
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Hard to tell without visible imagery but it appears that the little disturbance is finally trying to organize.
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10 years ago at this hour Hurricane Ike was moving over Galveston Bay bringing a significant storm surge that wiped out most Coastal homes on Bolivar and many along West Galveston Bay. Even in NW Harris County, roofs were being stripped off of homes and I was awake paying close attention without power as winds gusted to near 90 MPH as debris from neighboring homes filled our pool including garage doors. Later tonight 10 years ago 15 inches of very heavy rainfall associated with the last feeder band and an approaching cold front would bring the final punch to NW Harris as drywall collapsed in the 2 story homes in our neighborhood leaving extensive damage. Little did I know that we would not leave our neighborhood for over a year repairing, rebuilding and restoring homes for our neighbors. And we were on the supposed clean West and NW side of a Tropical Cyclone!
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srainhoutx
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Scott747 wrote:Hard to tell without visible imagery but it appears that the little disturbance is finally trying to organize.
It appears shear has abated somewhat. Storms are increasing as we get closer to sunrise.

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Wha?? Im confused. So did the euro go north? Cameron area?
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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srainhoutx
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djmike wrote:Wha?? Im confused. So did the euro go north? Cameron area?
That's Isaac...or at least what the Euro believes.
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djmike
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AH! Gotcha. I thought 95 did a 180. Thanks
Mike
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(IH-10 & College Street)
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djmike wrote:Wha?? Im confused. So did the euro go north? Cameron area?
I wouldn't worry with it too much right now. Models are still having trouble accurately forecasting the synoptic flow for Florence and how that could impact even down into the Caribbean. Once that is figured out we should begin to have a better idea of if and how much of a threat Isaac is to the gulf. It is still the middle of hurricane season though so keep an eye on it.
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srainhoutx
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Thursday morning briefing from Jeff:

Tropical wave over the central Gulf of Mexico has not become any better organized

Surface observations and satellite images indicate that the tropical wave remains a broad trough axis, extending from the southern Gulf of Mexico toward the north central Gulf. Convection has developed this morning along this wave axis, but it is disorganized and sporadic and has shown no signs of becoming better concentrated. Model support for the formation of a tropical depression or storm has been falling over the last 24 hours with the majority of the models maintaining this feature as an open wave instead of a closed surface low. With that said there is still some support and about a 60% chance that the feature may attempt to develop right near the TX coast later today into Friday as it moves onshore along the lower or middle TX coast. This feature has about 24-30 hours left over the Gulf of Mexico before it moves inland along the TX coast…so the window is starting to close on if the system can develop before it reaches the coast. Regardless of development or not…impacts will be the same.

Increasing deep ESE/SE flow is evident across our area this morning with radar returns moving quickly from E to W over the coastal waters. Surface observations show the influences of the tropical wave have reached the upper TX coast with winds increasing from the SE. Bands of rain are starting to develop in the increasing ESE flow and this will continue for the next 48 hours as both moisture and lift increase.

Will focus the greatest rains in banding features across the Gulf waters and first tier coastal counties (Chambers through Matagorda) where inland moving numerous Gulf banding is most likely. Rain chances will decrease to the north where somewhat dry air will be in place and NW moving rain bands will likely weaken as they move inland. Rainfall totals of 2-4 inches will be most likely south of I-10 with isolated amounts of 6-8 inches in any sustained training of bands. This is also the general area that has received the greatest amounts of rainfall over the last several days and where grounds are most saturated indicating the highest flood risk. Rainfall to the north of I-10 will generally average 1-2 inches with isolated totals up to 4 inches.

Coastal winds and seas will be increasing today and remain elevated into Saturday. This will drive tides higher along the Gulf faces beaches especially as waves increase adding more water along the coast. Total water level will reach between 2.5-3.5 feet above MLLW (barnacle level) which may cause some minor issues on Bolivar and could reach the base of the dunes on the west end of Galveston, but this is generally below the 4.5-5.0 feet needed to cause more significant concerns along the coast.
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