SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Katdaddy
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Back to a wet pattern for SE TX as showers and thunderstorms are moving onshore of the Upper TX Coast this morning with locally heavy rain. The rain and thunderstorms will spread inland today. Expect more of the same as a front moves into SE TX Wednesday evening and night. Continued rain and thunderstorm chances through Friday.
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srainhoutx
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The overnight Global and mesoscale models have come into better agreement suggesting that cold front we've been chatting about will clear the Coast Wednesday night. A surface low is expected to organize and ride NE along that boundary over our Coastal waters increasing rain chances late week. It does appear the front may return as a warm front this weekend as a robust upper air disturbance rides across Texas further enhancing rain chances Friday/Saturday and possibly into Sunday.
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09252018 WPC Fronts 99fndfd_init_2018092500.gif
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snowman65
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GFS not seeing any type of fronts as far out as it goes (384 hr)...hmm....Are we looking at November until we get our first fall front? BTW...it's raining LOL
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srainhoutx
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The Cold Front is advancing S across the Panhandle and nearing the Permian Basin at this hour. There was a 15 degree difference between Amarillo and Lubbock with much lower dew points and gusty Northerly winds behind the front. A strong upper trough continues to dig into the Central Plains as a shortwave over the Four Corners slowly moves East into Texas tomorrow further assisting the front to push S and E and clear the Coast sometime Wednesday night/Thursday morning. It appears several upper air disturbances will ride along the SW flow aloft keeping us cloudy and showery Thursday into Friday. There is some uncertainty regarding the sensible weekend weather. The GFS is aggressive with rain chance as an upper low closes off and meanders over Texas. The 12Z ECMWF is more progressive with that upper air feature and significantly drier. For those wondering about these fronts and their strength, remember we were not expecting a front to clear the Region last weekend and one did. The door has opened for these Fall fronts to push through and as temperature continue to fall across Canada and the Northern Plains, stronger fronts will follow. Changes are brewing in the Medium and Extended Range as the MJO has responded and looks to be highly amplified in Phase 8/1 which typically mean the active weather will be on our side of the World. Watch the EPAC and possibly the Western Atlantic Basin to wake up, tropically speaking and fingers crossed we do not have to wait much longer before that first real 'Blue Norther' is on the horizon.
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jasons2k
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The curse has been broken! I'm one of the few places to get a decent shower today.

Lubbock was a great place to be this time of year. Those fall fronts were always quite refreshing up there.
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Katdaddy
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Showers and thunderstorms moving across the Upper TX Coast again this morning. This will continue through out the day as a weak frontal boundary pushed into SE TX. This boundary looks to push to the coast overnight with additional showers and thunderstorms with some locally heavy rains.
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srainhoutx
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Nearing 1 inch of rain since 7:00 AM in NW Harris County with some lightning as well.
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unome
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Question for SRain, or anyone else who may know the answer

The QPF images seem to have much higher res detail lately over more parts of the US, much like the western US has for some time. Are they changing the method they use to determine QPF?

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=qpf
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srainhoutx wrote:Nearing 1 inch of rain since 7:00 AM in NW Harris County with some lightning as well.
You seem to be in a sweet spot lately for rain. We haven’t really had any measurable rainfall here in about 10 days or so now, but that should change later today.
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And so far, .41" of rain this morning in northern Brazoria County this morning. That's on top of the ~1/2" of rain we got yesterday. The dyemaker's puffballs and other 'shrooms are having a heyday this week!
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

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srainhoutx
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Wednesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Soggy pattern continues over the area

Another weak cold front will move into SE TX this afternoon and evening and likely progress all the way to the coast and even offshore later tonight into Thursday. Ahead of this boundary tropical moisture has pooled resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning over the region. As the frontal boundary moves into the moist and unstable air mass this afternoon expect to see numerous showers and thunderstorms develop over the area and move from NW to SE. Storm motions should be on the order of 10-15mph which will help negate any significant flooding concerns, but would not be surprised to see some areas pick up a quick 1-3 inches of rainfall under the stronger cells.

With the front expected to push offshore early Thursday, a slightly drier air mass will move into the region. Think clouds will linger behind the boundary so it will be cooler on Thursday, but more due to the cloud cover and showers than any significant cold air advection. A fairly strong short wave in the WNW flow aloft approaches the area on Friday and this feature will likely bring the front back northward as a warm front. Expect increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as the warm front moves into the area and lift from the short wave approaches. Could see some heavy rainfall on Friday as these features combine over the region.

Tropical air mass will return over the weekend with daily rain chances of 30-50% along the seabreeze each afternoon.
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djmike
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Looking at my rain gauge, I have over one foot of rain for the month of September!! :o
Mike
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(IH-10 & College Street)
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snowman65
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We have flooded streets with water entering cars here in Orange. It just rains every day...with no end in sight.
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Beginning to storm down here

121 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GALVESTON...SOUTHWESTERN
CHAMBERS...NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA AND SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTIES
UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

At 121 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Greater Hobby Area to Santa Fe. Movement was
northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 35 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pasadena, Pearland, League City, Baytown, Texas City, Friendswood, La
Porte, Deer Park, Alvin, Dickinson, South Houston, La Marque, Santa
Fe, Seabrook, Galena Park, Webster, Hitchcock, Beach City, Kemah and
South Belt / Ellington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
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CrashTestDummy
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Just got done with that line that's progressing toward Galveston Bay. We got .75" of rain from that. Galveston Bay is under a Special Marine Warning, and rightly-so. It got DARK here, and I could barely see the street in front of my house when that line passed. Galveston Bay is going to get filled up!
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

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srainhoutx
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The Cold Front is progressing nicely and should clear Austin/San Antonio shortly. Temperature departures from normal around Dallas and the N Central Texas Region is running about 25F below normal where upper 50's to low 60's are common.
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DoctorMu
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It's pouring in College Station. Green lawns and foliage (for now). Picked up a couple of bags of fungicide.


The cold front is tantalizingly close now, around Cameron. About at 15° drop in temps and lower DPs. Come to poppa!
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DoctorMu
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srainhoutx wrote:The Cold Front is progressing nicely and should clear Austin/San Antonio shortly. Temperature departures from normal around Dallas and the N Central Texas Region is running about 25F below normal where upper 50's to low 60's are common.
So the models a week ago weren't that far off. The front will fizzle/reverse a little earlier, but a taste of actual Fall possible at least for NW counties (fingers crossed) soon.
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srainhoutx
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Keep an eye on these storms as HGX has detected some rotation aloft...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
318 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2018

WHARTON TX-COLORADO TX-FORT BEND TX-AUSTIN TX-
318 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...NORTH
CENTRAL WHARTON...SOUTHEASTERN AUSTIN AND WEST CENTRAL FORT BEND
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 317 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
EAGLE LAKE, MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EAGLE LAKE, EAST BERNARD, WALLIS AND HUNGERFORD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION AND MAY INTENSIFY, SO BE
CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION
STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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Near record territory for the number of days were rainfall was measured at all 4 HGX Official Sites...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
355 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2018

.DISCUSSION...
BEGINNING TO OBSERVE CLUSTERING CONVECTION OCCURRING JUST
DOWNSTREAM OF THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW ROUGHLY PARALLELING
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WHILE THESE STORMS ARE PUTTING DOWN A GOOD
HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF HOURLY RAINFALL, THEIR NEAR 30 MPH
SPEED TO THE NORTHEAST HAS AIDED IN HOLDING BACK ANY LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD FLOODING. THE STRONGEST CELLS ARE DISPLAYING DECENT
BOUTS OF CG LIGHTNING AND TIGHT Z GRADIENTS THAT COULD BE
INDICATIVE OF NEAR 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS. THIS AFTERNOON LEADING
INTO EVENING'S STORM ACTION WILL PRIMARILY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL LIFT WITH SECONDARY ASSISTANCE FROM UPPER DIFFULENCE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ALSO CONSIDERED AN
IMPETUS TO THIS SPIKE IN CELLULAR STRENGTH. EXPECTING TSRA TO
BETTER FILL IN OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER
NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR WERE DISPOSABLE,
AM LEANING TOWARDS ITS 19Z SOLUTION OF TAKING THESE NORTHERN
DISCRETE CELLS INTO THE METRO AREA BY 7 OR 8 PM TONIGHT.
EXPERIENCE WOULD STATE THAT, AS THESE DISCRETE CELLS MERGE
TOGETHER AND COALESCE THEIR OWN COLD POOL, A QLCS COULD DEVELOP
AND BLOW THROUGH THE COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. IF THIS
DOES OCCUR, THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 KNOTS,
WEAK TORNADOES AND NUISANCE FLOODING WITH SOME AREAS PICKING UP A
QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES. DUE TO THE FRONTAL FORCING AND POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE COLD POOL SOUTHERN-PROPAGATION, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
IS LOW END "GOOD" WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN LOCALLY HIGHER
THAN 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE COAST, ESPECIALLY IF EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY STORM MOTION SLOWS TO UNDER 20 KNOTS. WHATEVER IS
LEFT OF THE MESOCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY
BECOME STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOURS.

KEEPING POPS AT LEAST FLIP-OF-A-COIN CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD/
MARINE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER LEVEL FOCUS
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WITHIN A NEAR 2 INCH PWAT AIR MASS.
INTERIOR RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH TOMORROW TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FRONT INTO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE REGION STAYS WITHIN A
WEAK SHEAR ZONE OR CHANNEL OF LOWER HEIGHTS BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER
RIDGES POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SW AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
(BERMUDA HIGH). THUS, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THERMO AND MOISTURE
PROFILE, ONE CAN EXPECT RETURN PERIODS OF MAINLY EARLY DAY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND DISCRETE STORM CELLS
GENERALLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA. OR, IN OTHER
WORDS, UPPER RIDGING IS NOT FORECAST TO COMPLETELY TAKE OVER AS
EAST TEXAS FALLS ON THE WEAKER SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF U.S.
SOUTHEASTERN STATE RIDGING. THE MID TERM FORECAST (FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY) LOOK MORE WET THAN THE EXTENDED (SUNDAY ONWARD) BUT
CERTAINLY NO WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS. A POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO DROP ANOTHER 1
TO 3 INCHES SOMEWHERE ALONG THE COAST EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH THIS OVERCAST, WET
PATTERN; MORNING READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S/UPPER 70S AT COAST WITH
AFTERNOONS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S (WITH DAYTIME RAIN) TO
AROUND 90 F (WITHOUT RAIN). 31

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE RAIN CONTINUES AND THEREFORE IS PLACING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER
ON THE PRECIPICE OF FALLING INTO RECORD TERRITORY. SINCE IAH AND
CLL RECEIVED MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY, THEY HAVE TIED THEIR ALL
TIME MOST DAYS WITH RAINFALL IN THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER AT 15
DAYS...IF WE RECEIVE AT LEAST 0.01" AT EITHER ONE OF THOSE SITES
TOMORROW, THEN 16 DAYS WILL BE THE NEW SEPTEMBER RECORD. HOBBY IS
JUST A DAY BEHIND AT 17 DAYS WITH GALVESTON'S RECORD AT 20 DAYS.
SO, WITH ANOTHER FEW DAYS OF RAIN FORECAST FOR THE AREA, WE ARE
SAYING THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ALL 4 OFFICIAL SITES COULD SET A NEW
'NUMBER OF DAYS WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL' RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER.
31
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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