SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Post Reply
ticka1
Posts: 1265
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:02 pm
Location: Baytown/Mont Belvieu
Contact:

Or will we see an easrly season cool front? Will it rain or not?
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5647
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

The stock answer for this area of Texas is yes to more heat, with increased rain chances in the Brazos Valley in 7-10 days.

100°F heat in early September, especially with desiccated ground is not unusual at all.

Slight chance of rain this Monday and Tuesday (20-30%)

GFS has a backdoor front just after Labor Day, moving temps from near 100°F to the lower 90s. We'll see.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Interesting to see the GFS spinning up a phantom tropical trouble maker in the Bay of Campeche just after Labor Day.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 1278
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

Yes but its the GFS..... :lol:
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

We need to keep an eye on the eastern Atlantic wave. Most all the global models, including king Euro, are now developing it near the Bahamas, crossing the Florida peninsula, and then redeveloping again in the Gulf. Most send it to Louisiana but it's a long way off and much will change between now and then. Something to watch this week and into the holiday weekend.
ticka1
Posts: 1265
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:02 pm
Location: Baytown/Mont Belvieu
Contact:

jasons wrote:We need to keep an eye on the eastern Atlantic wave. Most all the global models, including king Euro, are now developing it near the Bahamas, crossing the Florida peninsula, and then redeveloping again in the Gulf. Most send it to Louisiana but it's a long way off and much will change between now and then. Something to watch this week and into the holiday weekend.
Not a forecast yet but cant discount the trends. With labor day fast approaching will we be spending our time watching the tropics? Need to monitor the trends and consistancy between models.
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Yesterday, the models were tracking the wave into Louisiana/Golden Triangle region and today they are taking it more into South Texas. I’m stating the obvious maybe, but it needs to be watched...
ticka1
Posts: 1265
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:02 pm
Location: Baytown/Mont Belvieu
Contact:

jasons wrote:Yesterday, the models were tracking the wave into Louisiana/Golden Triangle region and today they are taking it more into South Texas. I’m stating the obvious maybe, but it needs to be watched...
Yes it needs to be watched.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Nothing but increasing moisture on the 12Z GFS, but the 12Z ECMWF does have a weak disturbance traveling from the Florida Straights across the Central Gulf and may be attempting to close off at 850mb as it nears S Texas around Labor Day. We will see.
Attachments
08262018 12Z 192 ecmwf_uv850_vort_us_9.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice · 3h3 hours ago
Watching the Atlantic's Main Development Region this week into next for some strong African easterly waves to roll off Africa and potentially spin up into tropical cyclones. We are headed into the climatological peak of Atlantic Hurricanes. Nothing active as of today, however.

Attachments
08272018 Mike Ventrice DlmR94OUYAEVP6s.jpg
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Semrush [Bot] and 66 guests