NOVEMBER 2018: Thanksgiving Outlook

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Cpv17
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The models have really cut back on rainfall totals the last couple days. A few days ago this was looking like a big ticket rain event of widespread 3-6” totals across the whole area. Now it just looks like 1-2”.
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don
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I’m talking about when the high is in Canada though or near Montana/Wyoming. I know we would probably be too dry if it were that strong anywhere near Texas. 1030-1040mb seems to be the right strength around here, but correct me if I’m wrong.
Even in Canada it still wouldn't take a 1050mb+ high to get us cold enough down here for wintry precip. There are other factors that contribute to our artic outbreaks such as, snowpack, source region temps, and air density
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I continue to see many indications that many hemispheric atmospheric variables clearly pointing to very late November and the beginning of December. Perhaps someone will start a new December Topic as November will be coming to an end very shortly. ;)
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srainhoutx wrote:I continue to see many indications amount the many hemispheric atmospheric variables clearly pointing to very late November and the beginning of December. Perhaps someone will start a new December Topic as November will be coming to an end very shortly. ;)
Not sure what you mean, sir.
Cpv17
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The models are really backing down on rain for this week. Now has most places only getting about half an inch to an inch and a half.
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srainhoutx
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The overnight ensembles are trending toward the possibility of a strong storm signal just after Thanksgiving. The 00Z ECMWF EPS suggests a deep trough over the Central/Eastern United States and a very impressive Blocking pattern over the higher latitudes of Greenland back into Eastern Canada. There are also indications that a surface low may ride out of Mexico into Texas sending a rather strong cold front across our Region. While it is too soon to know what the sensible weather may bring, I would watch in the Day 7 to 10 Range for changes brewing. The zonal flow we will have during the Thanksgiving Holiday period could change to a colder and active period as November ends a December begins.
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11182018 00Z ECMWF EPS 192 500h_anom_nh.png
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Bring on the cold...and hopefully some snow ☃️
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NWS Weekly Outlook
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NWS Houston Monday Outlook
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srainhoutx
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We have a very fast and progressive weather pattern ahead this week into early next week with upper troughs, areas of disturbed weather and rainfall chances arriving around every 36 hours or so lending to a messy forecast. The raw and wet weather of today will be replaced by another shot of cold and somewhat drier air tomorrow. Wednesday is a challenging day due to another storm system approaching that looks to bring a round of showers and possibly some elevated storm Wednesday afternoon into the early hours of Thanksgiving day. A rather vigorous upper trough with a much stronger shot of colder air with possibly some moisture arrives Sunday as the hectic Thanksgiving Holiday period ends. Those traveling to the big cities in the NE can expect a very strong shot of Artic Air for Thanksgiving where temperatures may approach record lows of near Zero. Those heading West to California, wet weather finally returns along the West Coast where they sorely need some moisture after the wild fires, but flooding issues may become a problem for runoff in the burn scare areas.

Early next week may bring our Region another shot of temperatures that may flirt with freezing so stay tuned regarding that longer range outlook.
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srainhoutx
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The afternoon ECMWF continues to advertise another impressive late Fall/early Winter cold shot arriving Sunday into next Monday. The Canadian model agrees with the idea of a deep Central/Eastern Upper trough and additional upper level energy poised to cross near our Region after the cold air is established.
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11192018 12Z 144 ecmwf_z500a_namer_7.png
11192018 12Z 168 ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png
11192018 12Z 192 ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png
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Cpv17
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I think we can bank on it getting cold, but precipitation I’m not so sure about. Probably would just be overcast with some drizzle around. That’s usually what happens. Heck, that’s what’s happening out there right now.
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A cool morning across SE TX with temps in the 40s across much of the area. Beautiful weather today with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 60s. Expect another round of clouds and rain Wednesday afternoon into early Thanksgiving morning before clearing skies arrive. Some additional showers Friday and partly sunny on Saturday with highs into the low 70s.
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NWS Houston Thanksgiving Week Temperature Trends
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HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE
Hope y'all are stuffed and stay warm!
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srainhoutx
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Tuesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Fairly active weather pattern will result in nearly daily changes in the weather for the next several days. No significant weather events appear likely through the Thanksgiving holiday period.

Coastal trough and low has pushed east of the area allowing a much drier air mass to move across SE TX and resulting in clearing skies. Air mass is still fairly cool and even with the sun, only expecting high temperatures today in the lower 60’s. Next upper level disturbance will quickly approach from the SW on Wednesday and yet another coastal trough will form well offshore over the NW Gulf of Mexico. Models have been showing this feature further and further offshore which should keep the most active weather and any threat for strong or severe weather well off the coast. Expect clouds to rapidly increase on Wednesday with showers and an isolated thunderstorms by Wednesday evening over the area. Highest rain chances will be along the coast and offshore where best moisture and strongest lift will be found. System will be fast moving and will see rain ending early on Thursday morning. Post frontal air mass is not very cold, but how quickly the area warms on Thursday will likely depend on how quickly clouds break up. There are some indications that moisture may get trapped in a frontal inversion and linger much of the day which could keep daytime highs on the cooler side in the 50’s and lower 60’s versus near 70 if the sun breaks out earlier in the day.

Another quick moving system on Friday with a slight chance of showers (30-40%) and again on Sunday. Fast movement of the weather systems is not allowing much time for moisture return nor any significant amounts of cold air to move southward. Upper air pattern may buckle some into early next week with the post Sunday cold front having a better push of cold air to knock highs back down into the 50’s/60’s and lows into the 40’s after a brief warm up over the weekend.

Overall pattern is looking very El Nino like and extended seasonal outlooks continue to call for above normal rainfall and near or below normal temperatures for next winter season. This appears to be supported by the developing El Nino conditions in the central Pacific and also a warm pool of water in the Gulf of Alaska which would help to support the idea of frequent cold air intrusions east of the Rockies while moisture streams into TX from the SW out of the Pacific.


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As we say goodbye to Hurricane season, I find the map interesting in that the southeastern part of the United States was a target zone for tropical systems this year. You'll also notice how the Atlantic cruisers slowly died as they approached the Caribbean... a hostile environment with wind shear the last few years.

This has also marked the fourth consecutive year in which a storm developed before the official start of Hurricane season (Tropical Storm Alberto on May 25). As a result, there were a total of 15 named storms, 8 Hurricanes, 2 Major Hurricanes. This was an above average year as NOAA was only predicting 9-13 named storms with 4-7 being Hurricanes and 0-2 becoming Major.

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season was the third in a consecutive series of above-average and damaging Atlantic hurricane season, featuring 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes and a total of $33.3 billion (2018 USD) in damages.
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Preliminary 2018 Hurricane Season Tracks
Preliminary 2018 Hurricane Season Tracks
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