NOVEMBER 2018: Thanksgiving Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

The afternoon ECMWF continues to advertise another impressive late Fall/early Winter cold shot arriving Sunday into next Monday. The Canadian model agrees with the idea of a deep Central/Eastern Upper trough and additional upper level energy poised to cross near our Region after the cold air is established.
Attachments
11192018 12Z 144 ecmwf_z500a_namer_7.png
11192018 12Z 168 ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png
11192018 12Z 192 ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

I think we can bank on it getting cold, but precipitation I’m not so sure about. Probably would just be overcast with some drizzle around. That’s usually what happens. Heck, that’s what’s happening out there right now.
User avatar
Katdaddy
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2501
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
Location: League City, Tx
Contact:

A cool morning across SE TX with temps in the 40s across much of the area. Beautiful weather today with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 60s. Expect another round of clouds and rain Wednesday afternoon into early Thanksgiving morning before clearing skies arrive. Some additional showers Friday and partly sunny on Saturday with highs into the low 70s.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

NWS Houston Thanksgiving Week Temperature Trends
Attachments
NWS Houston Thanksgiving Week Temperature Trends 11 20 18.PNG
User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 1278
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE
Hope y'all are stuffed and stay warm!
Grateful for this space - and Steve!
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Tuesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Fairly active weather pattern will result in nearly daily changes in the weather for the next several days. No significant weather events appear likely through the Thanksgiving holiday period.

Coastal trough and low has pushed east of the area allowing a much drier air mass to move across SE TX and resulting in clearing skies. Air mass is still fairly cool and even with the sun, only expecting high temperatures today in the lower 60’s. Next upper level disturbance will quickly approach from the SW on Wednesday and yet another coastal trough will form well offshore over the NW Gulf of Mexico. Models have been showing this feature further and further offshore which should keep the most active weather and any threat for strong or severe weather well off the coast. Expect clouds to rapidly increase on Wednesday with showers and an isolated thunderstorms by Wednesday evening over the area. Highest rain chances will be along the coast and offshore where best moisture and strongest lift will be found. System will be fast moving and will see rain ending early on Thursday morning. Post frontal air mass is not very cold, but how quickly the area warms on Thursday will likely depend on how quickly clouds break up. There are some indications that moisture may get trapped in a frontal inversion and linger much of the day which could keep daytime highs on the cooler side in the 50’s and lower 60’s versus near 70 if the sun breaks out earlier in the day.

Another quick moving system on Friday with a slight chance of showers (30-40%) and again on Sunday. Fast movement of the weather systems is not allowing much time for moisture return nor any significant amounts of cold air to move southward. Upper air pattern may buckle some into early next week with the post Sunday cold front having a better push of cold air to knock highs back down into the 50’s/60’s and lows into the 40’s after a brief warm up over the weekend.

Overall pattern is looking very El Nino like and extended seasonal outlooks continue to call for above normal rainfall and near or below normal temperatures for next winter season. This appears to be supported by the developing El Nino conditions in the central Pacific and also a warm pool of water in the Gulf of Alaska which would help to support the idea of frequent cold air intrusions east of the Rockies while moisture streams into TX from the SW out of the Pacific.


Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
Belmer
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 744
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 7:29 pm
Location: Dallas, TX
Contact:

As we say goodbye to Hurricane season, I find the map interesting in that the southeastern part of the United States was a target zone for tropical systems this year. You'll also notice how the Atlantic cruisers slowly died as they approached the Caribbean... a hostile environment with wind shear the last few years.

This has also marked the fourth consecutive year in which a storm developed before the official start of Hurricane season (Tropical Storm Alberto on May 25). As a result, there were a total of 15 named storms, 8 Hurricanes, 2 Major Hurricanes. This was an above average year as NOAA was only predicting 9-13 named storms with 4-7 being Hurricanes and 0-2 becoming Major.

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season was the third in a consecutive series of above-average and damaging Atlantic hurricane season, featuring 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes and a total of $33.3 billion (2018 USD) in damages.
Attachments
Preliminary 2018 Hurricane Season Tracks
Preliminary 2018 Hurricane Season Tracks
Webp.net-resizeimage-3.jpg (155.64 KiB) Viewed 4229 times
Blake
Boomer Sooner
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Amazon [Bot], Bing [Bot] and 76 guests