December 2018: Sunshine Returns New Years Eve

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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Montgomery County in the new tornado watch:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0445.html
javakah
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Really wondering if the strong winds from the south are going to slow down the line quite a bit, and with that, really increase flooding issues much more than were anticipated.
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shipsatsea
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Torrential rain, hail and constant lightning here in Round Rock. If we have to have 60mph wind and hail, hoping it will take some cedar tree pollen with it!
Cromagnum
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Pfft. The line of storms to the south might last two minutes unless it slows down or it builds up before it comes in. Houston proper might get smacked though.
unome
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adding: https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx/status/1 ... 0701693952
HGX expires Tornado Warning for Harris, Montgomery [TX]
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/ ... 1812271030

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
432 AM CST THU DEC 27 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southeastern Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
North central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 445 AM CST.

* At 431 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Greater Greenspoint, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Spring and Bush Intercontinental Airport around 435 AM CST.
Humble around 440 AM CST.
Kingwood around 445 AM CST.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Porter
and New Caney.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not take shelter under highway overpasses. If you
cannot safely drive away from the tornado, as a last resort, either
park your vehicle and stay put, or abandon your vehicle and lie down
in a low lying area and protect yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

This cluster of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and
widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest
floor of a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2989 9545 2995 9549 3021 9524 3004 9513
TIME...MOT...LOC 1031Z 229DEG 49KT 2997 9541

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN
1.jpg
Last edited by unome on Thu Dec 27, 2018 4:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
Cpv17
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Definitely storming here in Wharton County much worse than I thought it would. A nice surprise. Should end up with close to 2” when all is said and done!
unome
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https://twitter.com/i/status/1078239916507709442
@JeffLindner1
3m3 minutes ago

Wind gusts of 50-65mph possible along the leading edge of this line...brief tornado also possible #houwx #hounews
unome
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
448 AM CST THU DEC 27 2018

TXC201-271057-
/O.CAN.KHGX.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-181227T1100Z/
Harris TX-
448 AM CST THU DEC 27 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. However gusty winds and
heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CST for southeastern
Texas.


LAT...LON 2989 9540 2993 9537 2992 9510 2973 9517
TIME...MOT...LOC 1047Z 288DEG 34KT 2987 9526

$$
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
446 AM CST THU DEC 27 2018

TXC201-339-271056-
/O.EXP.KHGX.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-181227T1045Z/
Montgomery TX-Harris TX-
446 AM CST THU DEC 27 2018

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY AND NORTH CENTRAL
HARRIS COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire. However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CST for southeastern
Texas.


LAT...LON 2989 9545 2995 9549 3021 9524 3004 9513
TIME...MOT...LOC 1046Z 229DEG 49KT 3010 9524

$$
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srainhoutx
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Tornado Watch has been cancelled for all of the Houston Area including Coastal Counties. I have seen reports of trees down on vehicles in Montgomery County, a high water rescue up near Bryan/College Station and our typical low spot flood areas on roadways across Metro Houston. The Pacific Front to a West should clear us out later this afternoon. A stronger modified Canadian Front arrives tomorrow setting the stage for over running light stratiform rain and chilly temperatures throughout the weekend.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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LightningBolt
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Whew!! Glad that is over!
LightningBolt
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Is the Euro still showing the potential for winter mix precip in Southeast Texas for the Jan 2-3 time frame or did it disappear the following run? :roll:
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Texaspirate11
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Hope everyone is okay...watching this from a distance...cant wait to get home to Texas
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
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MontgomeryCoWx
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LightningBolt wrote: Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:54 am Is the Euro still showing the potential for winter mix precip in Southeast Texas for the Jan 2-3 time frame or did it disappear the following run? :roll:
GFS and FV3 picked it up ... shows sleet accumulation
Team #NeverSummer
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srainhoutx
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Briefing on East & West Fork of San Jacinto River Flooding from Jeff:

Significant rainfall overnight will lead to significant rises on both the West and East Forks of the San Jacinto River.

Flooding is likely on both the West Fork and East Fork starting as early as tomorrow morning and lasting into early next week.

West Fork of the San Jacinto River:
River is rising and is expected to rise above flood stage Friday morning and crest at 51.3ft (moderate flooding) on Sunday. Low lying roads near the river will be impacted and these water levels will be similar (slightly lower) than the December 7-8, 2018 event. Nearly all of the water heading into the West Fork is from significant run-off being generated on Cypress, Spring, and Lake Creeks.
12272018 Jeff 1 untitled.png
East Fork of the San Jacinto River:
River is rising at FM 1485 and nearing bankfull at FM 2090 (Plum Grove). Heavy rainfall over the headwaters of the river will move downstream from the Cleveland area and reach Plum Grove and FM 1485 this weekend. The river is expected to rise to flood stage midday Friday and have an extended flat crest over the weekend near 60.5 ft. FM 1485 may be threatened at these levels along with low lying roads in subdivisions downstream of FM 1485.
12272018 Jeff 2 untitled.png
Other Watersheds:

Spring Creek:
Significant run-off is in progress over the upper headwaters of Spring Creek and the creek is rising along the entire channel. Hegar Rd is at bankfull this morning and near bankfull conditions will be possible along the creek downstream to SH 249 and I-45. No structure flooding is expected, but some low lying roads near the creek or that cross the creek may be impacted…especially upstream of SH 249.

Cypress Creek:
Significant run-off is in progress in the headwaters into Cypress Creek. The creek is rising and may reach near flood stage later today at Katy Hockley. Do not expect any significant downstream flooding east of Hwy 290 along Cypress Creek, although the creek will be very high as upstream water translates downstream.
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srainhoutx
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Tornado Watch issued for our neighbors in Eastern Louisiana and Central Mississippi
Attachments
12272018 ww0448_overview_wou.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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redneckweather
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I'm loving this pattern as we head into January where I believe we will have cold air to work with when these systems come across. Fingers crossed that we will be building a snowman or 2 over the next few weeks!
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srainhoutx
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Thursday weather briefing from Jeff:

Overnight storm system brought significant rainfall to areas north of I-10 with widespread 2-4 inches over many areas. Responses to area watersheds are ongoing (see hydro section below).

Active weather is moving off the coast currently with rapid clearing over much of the area NW of US 59 in response to dry air overspreading the region. Little in the way of cold air advection with this weak frontal passage…and temperatures should warm into the 70’s under sun this afternoon. Another decent day on Friday…so enjoy…because it turns cold and wet into 2019.

Stronger front will push across the area Friday while another trough sets up to our west. This trough will force the formation of a surface trough over the NW Gulf of Mexico by late Friday along the frontal boundary which slowly develops into a coastal low over the weekend and moves up the TX coast. Cold air will flow SSW on NNE surface winds late Friday into the weekend while 850mb flow out of the SSW overruns this surface cold dome yielding lift across the area. Light rain and showers will develop from SW to NE Friday evening and continue through the entire weekend. Will keep the best rain chances along and SE of US 59 along with the highest rainfall amounts as this is where the best moisture and lift is most likely. Temperatures will likely remain in the 40’s through much of the week with clouds, rain, and cold air advection from the NE.

Will need to keep a close eye on Sunday evening into Monday morning as the coastal low moves up the coast. Low may get close enough to bring some heavier rains inland during this period.

Rainfall Amounts:
Widespread rainfall from Friday night-Monday will average .5-1.0 inch over the region with isolated higher totals near the coast. This rainfall will be spread out over time, but grounds are saturated from recent rains and watersheds high…many of which will just be cresting (rivers) this weekend. Expected rainfall will need to be monitored closely in case totals are increased that would result in greater run-off potential. Current forecasted totals should only slow recessions or extend crests and are currently not expected to result in new rises.

Hydro:

Navasota River:
Minor flooding is forecast along much of the river into early next week

Brazos River:
Significant rise in the river from Hempstead downstream to Rosharon is expected, but currently not expected to reach flood stage at any point although Rosharon may get close.

West Fork San Jacinto:
Minor to moderate flooding is expected starting early Friday and lasting into the weekend. Low lying roads near the river and access the elevated homes along the river may be cut-off

East Fork San Jacinto:
Minor flooding if currently expected to begin midday Friday and last through the weekend. FM 1485 may be impacted along with low lying roads both downstream of FM 2090 near Plum Grove and downstream of FM 1485 near New Caney.

Trinity River:
Moderate flooding is expected at Liberty with the river reaching flood stage midday Friday and remaining in flood through the middle of next week.

Colorado River:
Significant floodwave is being generated upstream of Bastrop and this floodwave will move downstream over the next several days. Current forecast show the river remaining below flood stage at all points, but Bastrop and Smithville will be close to flood stage.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Cpv17
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Picked up 2.15” yesterday and this morning and we were only supposed to get about 3/4”. Definitely a nice surprise! I would say the NAM 3km model did the best job.
unome
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after an early morning wake-up from the rain/lightning/thunder, what a beautiful day it turned out to be !
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Boundary from overnight storms has pushed 60-70nm offshore. It
should get another push tonight as a reinforcing surge of drier/cool
air arrives. This incoming airmass appears fairly shallow and
winds just above the surface return from the south later in the
day tomorrow bringing a gradual return of cloudiness from south-
to-north late in the day.

A coastal trof begins developing Friday night. Moist upglide over
the trof, along with a continued sw flow aloft should allow for
precip to begin redeveloping across the area early Saturday and
expand in areal coverage thru the day Saturday and continue
Sunday. There is no real focusing mechanism per se, other than
maybe a zone of speed convergence around H85 if you squint
enough...so primarily would expect just a steady light to
occasional moderate rain thru the day Sunday.

The next western trof will continue digging southward into ncntl
Mexico then eject ne and across Texas late Sunday and Sunday night.
As this occurs, look for the coastal trof/low to be pulled inland
near or across Southeast Texas Sunday night. PW's climb to 1.3-1.5"
which is quite high for this time of year and there could now be
a boundary to focus precip upon. Too difficult to say where this
far out, but something to keep an eye on considering already wet
ground and elevated river levels...

Much like today, we'll see a wnw wind shift as the system departs
Monday morning. A stronger (dry) front will follow Monday night &
Tue. This front also looks shallow, but colder. Some guidance
indicates upglide over this front in advance of yet another
shortwave/trof. Operational GFS is dry, but ECMWF/CMC/GFS-FV3 all
show some precip developing over parts of the area Tue night and
Wed. Nudged POPs up a touch during this time period (will also
keep an eye on atmospheric temp profile)... 47

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Several rivers/creeks are in flood, or forecast to rise into
flood in the next several days. Stay up with the latest forecasts
at water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=hgx

&&

.MARINE...
Winds have decreased over the bays/coastal waters this afternoon as
the line of showers/thunderstorms continues to move E/SE out of the
area. However, seas, while they have also decreased some, do remain
elevated over the offshore waters at this time. Wave heights should
fall a bit more, but the arrival and passage of a second cold front
tonight increase wind speeds/seas once again. As such, will be keep-
ing the Small Craft Advisory in place for the offshore waters until
early Fri morning. Small Craft caution flags may also be needed for
the nearshore waters late tonight/early Fri morning. Looking ahead,
light offshore winds to prevail over first part of the weekend, but
another storm system developing over the Lower TX coast is forecast
to move up to this way by Sun. Increased showers/thunderstorms will
be possible as moderate/strong onshore winds return. The next front
is expected to move in from the W/NW into our marine waters Mon aft-
ernoon or so. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 42 58 40 49 41 / 0 0 0 40 50
Houston (IAH) 44 63 45 54 45 / 0 0 10 50 60
Galveston (GLS) 53 62 50 55 50 / 0 0 10 60 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for the following
zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.

&&
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srainhoutx
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The overnight guidance has trended drier for this evening and tomorrow as the Winter Storm over New Mexico has deepened and appears to be meandering versus a more progressive movement that was expected a couple of days ago. Heavy snow continues across most of New Mexico with Ruidoso and Cloudcroft appearing to be the be winners. Ski Apache and Cloudcroft Ski Areas should measure snowfall by the feet for this storm and it does appear New Mexico will see additional storm systems impacting over the next week or so. Locally Sunday into Monday look like our best chance of rain possibly extending into the New Years eve Celebrations. Rainfall amounts looks less than a half inch locally, but could be higher NE of Houston. Happy New Year everyone!
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