January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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This is from John Dawson:
There's always that one guy who insists they love the cold.

https://twitter.com/johndawsonfox26/sta ... 48160?s=21
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MontgomeryCoWx
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jasons wrote: Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:23 pm This is from John Dawson:
There's always that one guy who insists they love the cold.

https://twitter.com/johndawsonfox26/sta ... 48160?s=21
That’s me on a 15-20 degree day! LOL
Team #NeverSummer
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srainhoutx
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It's going to be a close call regarding those low temperature readings in the morning particularly close to our typical colder locals. HGX has me at 34F. Clouds are beginning to spread into the SE Texas Region and likely will make for spectacular sunset pictures. I did see several neighbors covering their flowerbeds this afternoon.
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jasons2k
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:13 pm
jasons wrote: Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:23 pm This is from John Dawson:
There's always that one guy who insists they love the cold.

https://twitter.com/johndawsonfox26/sta ... 48160?s=21
That’s me on a 15-20 degree day! LOL
:) that’s me in Colorado for a ski trip.

My dewpoint is down to 21. That’s pretty low. Will throw the covers on the plants tonight just to be extra cautious. I’ve been burned (busted) before with similar setups. Not happening this time.
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jasons2k
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Already down to 40f here with a dew point of 25.

Side note: I’ve seen about three different headlines today proclaiming how Chicago/Midwest is colder than Antarctica. Do these “journalists” not realize it’s summer in the Southern Hemisphere?

Silly me. Judging by the quality and accuracy of most scientific-related news articles why am I surprised?
redneckweather
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Already 33 here just south of Lake Conroe with a forecasted low of 34. There goes that. lol
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jasons2k
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Down to 38F. Dew point holding at 25F. I still see starts up in the sky, too. I will sleep much better knowing everything is covered.
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jasons2k
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Temp held at 38 with the clouds. No freeze this week - such a blessing. Now, onto Spring!
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wxman57
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Arctic front is pulling up stationary at the Red River this morning.

Image
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tireman4
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230
FXUS64 KHGX 301125
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
525 AM CST Wed Jan 30 2019

.AVIATION...
Lowering ceilings are expected through tomorrow with MVFR levels
anticipated to develop late tomorrow morning or early tomorrow
afternoon. Areas of -RA/-SHRA can be expected to develop tomorrow
too. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CST Wed Jan 30 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Another cold night, particularly north of Houston where Crockett
has reached freezing at 3 am. This should generally come to an
end, with more seasonably chilly temperatures tomorrow night, and
then above normal temperatures into the middle of next week, with
highs reaching into the lower half of the 70s by early next week.
As for rain chances - those creep back into the picture as early
as Thursday, and simply don`t leave as an active upper pattern
continues. But this reflects a situation that is less neverending
rain, and much more uncertainty in timing these subtle rain
generators at long range. There will be a mix of wet and dry
periods - indeed, likely more dry than wet - but that rain could
come at most any time from tomorrow into next week.

NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The satellite shows a thick veil of cirrus across virtually all of
Southeast Texas at 3 am, and though it may be helping hold
overnight lows up slightly, Crockett has still managed to reach
freezing, so things may end up not too dissimilar from last night.
This will give us a cold start that developing onshore flow will
not be strong enough to really cause a big warming trend today.
So, look for temps to top out mainly in the 50s again today, a few
degrees cooler than yesterday.

Surface high pressure has moved east of the area, and will
continue to slide away from the area, but it should largely
dominate the surface pressure pattern today. A coastal trough
should begin to form up off the Mexican Gulf Coast, but this will
be too far away to have any real impact on our weather. But...for
what it`s worth, the radar is indicating that better rain
potential is on the way, as there are some very light returns at
high altitude on KHGX. None of this is reaching the ground, but
does hint at moisture already present aloft.

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...

On Thursday, look for the above-mentioned coastal trough/low to
scrape up the coast while the high continues to retreat. Thus,
rain chances will start to creep in as the day grows older -
particularly over the Gulf waters and immediate coastal areas. We
should also begin a solid warming trend as onshore flow
strengthens.

For Friday, the coastal trough looks to weaken as the old trough
axis gets shoved inland. We`ll also have a brief shortwave ridge
pass over, but it looks to be very brief as another upper trough
wheels into the region. Thus, rain chances should decrease but not
go away entirely. Of higher confidence is the continuing trend in
warming, and we may even reach 70 degrees in localized spots near
Matagorda Bay.

LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

The active pattern continues as a string of upper disturbances
stream through both the arctic and subtropical jets, keeping at
least some low chances of showers in place deep into next week. Of
the numerous opportunities for rain, two features in particular
stand out - on Saturday, the strongest subtropical upper low will
scoot through, and the GFS indicates that there`s some chance of
phasing with a northern stream disturbance and surface low
traveling through the Great Lakes. The Euro does not indicate this
solution so I`m not going to sell out too hard on this scenario,
but this could potentially be the most impactful feature of the
next week (which is to say, still not terribly impactful).

Another thing to look for will come towards the middle of next
week, as we look for a front strong enough to push through
Southeast Texas to arrive. There`s surprising consensus on this in
the modeling, given that it is entirely different upper
troughs/surface low combos that are responsible for this front.
But, it does appear that sometime in the middle to late part of
next week that will spell the end of the warm stretch we are about
to enter into.

MARINE...

High pressure moving off to the east will allow winds to
veer to the east for the remainder of the week. South to
southeast winds will develop over the weekend and persist
through the first half of next week. Eventually we`ll start
seeing a transition to a warmer airmass moving over the
colder shelf waters toward the end of the week. The threat
of sea fog development should increase as we head into the
weekend and possibly linger into the middle part of next
week when the next cold front is forecast to push off the
coast. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 54 41 60 52 65 / 0 0 20 20 20
Houston (IAH) 54 43 60 52 66 / 0 0 30 30 30
Galveston (GLS) 53 52 59 55 63 / 0 10 50 40 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
Cromagnum
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jasons wrote: Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:39 am Temp held at 38 with the clouds. No freeze this week - such a blessing. Now, onto Spring!
Nah. Two more months of winter please. Then hopefully 3 months of spring before we get 9 months of summer.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 301811
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1211 PM CST Wed Jan 30 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will persist through the majority of the overnight
hours with mid/high level cloudiness prevailing. Low levels begin
moistening toward morning with an increasing southerly flow
aloft. Look for MVFR ceilings to develop a few hours after
sunrise. Chances of rain will be introduced to the TAFs during the
late part of the period in association with a developing coastal
trough in addition to a series of upper level disturbances passing
overhead. Precip chances will be higher after 31/18z. 47

&&
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CRASHWX
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Climate models show reload on cold post Feb 11...looks to be more in our source region...Srain do you see this or am I’m gonna have beautiful double down crushed again by a deep dealer 21! Lol
:ugeek: CRASHWX :ugeek:
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tireman4
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XUS64 KHGX 311739
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1139 AM CST Thu Jan 31 2019

.AVIATION...
A mixed bag of ceilings across the terminals at this hour. Would
anticipate them to fall into the 1000-2000ft range in the next
several hours as precip starts expanding across parts of the area
from the sw. Best coverage looks like it`ll be from the Houston
airports southward, but cannot rule out sct activity further
north. TAFs will, in general, advertise shra but there have been a
few embedded tsra noted sw of Matagorda. Precip will taper off
later this evening, but isolated activity (not mentioned in the
TAFs) is possible through the night. 47

&&
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jasons2k
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A bit more rain out there than I expected —
Cpv17
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jasons wrote: Thu Jan 31, 2019 3:40 pm A bit more rain out there than I expected —
Wet pattern lies ahead.
BlueJay
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Good Bye January 2019. You have been a sweet winter month with your lowest temperature of 30F and a high of 76F up here in the Woods. No plants have been lost yet this winter.

Now on to February 2019...
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jasons2k
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Interesting tidbit:

In the last 30 years, it has rained 15 out of 30 times on this day.
mckinne63
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jasons wrote: Thu Jan 31, 2019 3:40 pm A bit more rain out there than I expected —
It's been raining here in Stafford most of the afternoon and it's still raining. It is a light rain, a bit heavier now, but raining for quite some time.
Cpv17
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.50” here in Wharton today. Definitely more than I expected.
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