January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[CRASHWX]

Go look at Joe Bastardi on weatherbell.com scroll down click on his mug and let his videos load and watch Sat update it’s veru detailed

[Belmer]

I know we all get impatient with the lack of model support/consistency in the medium and long range but wanted to share these images and sounding. The Stratospheric warming is pretty much at the peak for 10hPa level. We are looking at temperatures of around +10C and up to about 30km in the atmosphere. The sounding below is from Vitim Airport in Russia showing the the sharp rise in temperatures once in the Stratosphere.

Models will continue to be volatile as this pattern continues to evolve and shift around. Any forecast 7+ days out is rather pointless as models will continue to sway back and forth to extremes (just like at the old GFS vs new GFSFV3).

So for those that live and die by every model run... use them cautiously at this time as confidence in the forecast beyond the New Year is uncertain. Regardless of what our weather may be heading into 2019, I don't see any significant cold heading down this way... certainly not as cold as last year when we were getting down into the teens (January 17, 2018). But the possibilities are there for mid January into early February for a cooler and wetter period. Just whether that 'wetter' scenario brings any liquid fun is the $64,000 question...

*Edit to add - in case anyone was wondering where I got the charts from, I like to use this site from time to time when looking at events such as the SSW (wxcharts.eu).
The University of Wyoming also has a neat site to pull soundings from - (http://weather.uwyo.edu/)

[CRASHWX]

Analog years in the Same Years / GFS snow cove

[harp]

Can you explain this? Thanks.

[CRASHWX]

In the first pic you see the analog years at the top...it’s just showing when you have all the same atmospheric indicators lining up like the MJO moving through phase 6-7-8 and neg AO and pos PNA that is the way the Temps line up. In other words you are looking at all of those years lining up behind what is currently happening and then where it went. The other is just an ensemble mean of the GFS I believe which starts showing support for the future changes. Like I said before go to weatherbell.com and look at the daily update under JB...scroll down and click on his pic and let videos load the public videos are at the top.

[harp]

Thanks. He hasn't done an update today the last time I looked.

[Cpv17]

Thanks. He hasn't done an update today the last time I looked.

He did his daily update a few hours ago. It’s there because I just watched it.

[harp]

Ok, I will go look. Thanks again.

[harp]

JB seems pretty confident.

[CRASHWX]

JB seems pretty confident.

He has been on it for couple of weeks...every since he saw the storms go off in the Indian Ocean

[srainhoutx]

NWSCPC‏Verified account @NWSCPC · 2m2 minutes ago
We're monitoring the #MJO as it is forecast to enter the Pacific next week. Pacific MJO events can influence North American weather substantially, and would support a wet pattern in ~3 weeks for CA (seen in CFS model output) plus increasing cold air outbreak potential in the East

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Updated Day 6 to 10 Outlook suggests the 'coldest' air across the Nation will be over the Southern Rockies and Texss as we begin a New Year.

[Andrew]

Just an FYI the ECMWF is sniffing some of that colder air towards the January 2-3rd time frame. It currently shows some mix precipitation over Central Texas into Southeast Texas. Something to keep an eye on.

[srainhoutx]

We will be keeping a keen eye on the first several days of January. While it is far too soon to know what the sensible weather may bring beyond 3 to 5 days, there are some indications that a modified Arctic Front arrives around New Years Day and possibly brings freezing to near freezing temperatures to our Region. There are also some indications that a bit of over running moisture may be around after the shallow cold air is in place at the surface, but caution is advised when looking at the various computer model schemes. We will see if the trend holds into the weekend and Monday.

[CRASHWX]

We will be keeping a keen eye on the first several days of January. While it is far too soon to know what the sensible weather may bring beyond 3 to 5 days, there are some indications that a modified Arctic Front arrives around New Years Day and possibly brings freezing to near freezing temperatures to our Region. There are also some indications that a bit of over running moisture may be around after the shallow cold air is in place at the surface, but caution is advised when looking at the various computer model schemes. We will see if the trend holds into the weekend and Monday.

Sir, do you see the cold lasting long term like into Feb or are we gonna catch a shot of cold and then blow torch? Lol

[don]

12z FV3 looks more interesting...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z ECMWF suggests a more energetic shortwave as the FV3 GFS has been sniffing out. The regular GFS and even the Canadian has a more open trough versus the shortwave at the upper levels that is more vigorous. The feature the models are attempting to resolve is currently located over the N Pacific near the SW Aleutian Islands.

[don]

12z Euro shows plenty of moisture with temps in the upper 30s/low 40's across the area, just need temps to be a little colder.

[harp]

12z Euro shows plenty of moisture with temps in the upper 30s/low 40's across the area, just need temps to be a little colder.

Yes, but what is the thickness value? How cold is the air aloft?

[don]

The air looks shallow,but not very shallow though, so it looks to be a wintry mix setup if the surface temps get cold enough but of course precip types this far out is anyone's guess.