January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[srainhoutx]

NWSCPC‏Verified account @NWSCPC · 2m2 minutes ago
We're monitoring the #MJO as it is forecast to enter the Pacific next week. Pacific MJO events can influence North American weather substantially, and would support a wet pattern in ~3 weeks for CA (seen in CFS model output) plus increasing cold air outbreak potential in the East

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Updated Day 6 to 10 Outlook suggests the 'coldest' air across the Nation will be over the Southern Rockies and Texss as we begin a New Year.

[Andrew]

Just an FYI the ECMWF is sniffing some of that colder air towards the January 2-3rd time frame. It currently shows some mix precipitation over Central Texas into Southeast Texas. Something to keep an eye on.

[srainhoutx]

We will be keeping a keen eye on the first several days of January. While it is far too soon to know what the sensible weather may bring beyond 3 to 5 days, there are some indications that a modified Arctic Front arrives around New Years Day and possibly brings freezing to near freezing temperatures to our Region. There are also some indications that a bit of over running moisture may be around after the shallow cold air is in place at the surface, but caution is advised when looking at the various computer model schemes. We will see if the trend holds into the weekend and Monday.

[CRASHWX]

We will be keeping a keen eye on the first several days of January. While it is far too soon to know what the sensible weather may bring beyond 3 to 5 days, there are some indications that a modified Arctic Front arrives around New Years Day and possibly brings freezing to near freezing temperatures to our Region. There are also some indications that a bit of over running moisture may be around after the shallow cold air is in place at the surface, but caution is advised when looking at the various computer model schemes. We will see if the trend holds into the weekend and Monday.

Sir, do you see the cold lasting long term like into Feb or are we gonna catch a shot of cold and then blow torch? Lol

[don]

12z FV3 looks more interesting...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z ECMWF suggests a more energetic shortwave as the FV3 GFS has been sniffing out. The regular GFS and even the Canadian has a more open trough versus the shortwave at the upper levels that is more vigorous. The feature the models are attempting to resolve is currently located over the N Pacific near the SW Aleutian Islands.

[don]

12z Euro shows plenty of moisture with temps in the upper 30s/low 40's across the area, just need temps to be a little colder.

[harp]

12z Euro shows plenty of moisture with temps in the upper 30s/low 40's across the area, just need temps to be a little colder.

Yes, but what is the thickness value? How cold is the air aloft?

[don]

The air looks shallow,but not very shallow though, so it looks to be a wintry mix setup if the surface temps get cold enough but of course precip types this far out is anyone's guess.

[CRASHWX]

A little Joe Bastardi Twitter take...

[Cpv17]

A lot of the models are wanting to torch the country after next weeks cold snap.

[harp]

A lot of the models are wanting to torch the country after next weeks cold snap.

JB is not buying the blowtorch theory.

[srainhoutx]

I don't know, but this looks below normal to me...

[Cpv17]

A lot of the models are wanting to torch the country after next weeks cold snap.

JB is not buying the blowtorch theory.

If the ao, nao, & epo can all go negative and stay there then I’m not gonna be worried about any torch, that’s for sure lol

[CRASHWX]

A lot of the models are wanting to torch the country after next weeks cold snap.

JB is not buying the blowtorch theory.

If the ao, nao, & epo can all go negative and stay there then I’m not gonna be worried about any torch, that’s for sure lol

No that was his point in the daily...blowtorch model idea does not add and has no real atmospheric support. Second the current set up has multiple analog years as support for the idea of COLD AND LASTING COLD

[Cpv17]

Even the old GFS is coming around to the idea of a winter storm next week.

[srainhoutx]

HGX is monitoring the recent changes in the models and the over running precipitation as well as the atmospheric profiles for mid next week...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
343 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

.DISCUSSION...
BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS HAS PUSHED 60-70NM OFFSHORE. IT
SHOULD GET ANOTHER PUSH TONIGHT AS A REINFORCING SURGE OF DRIER/COOL
AIR ARRIVES. THIS INCOMING AIRMASS APPEARS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH LATER IN THE
DAY TOMORROW BRINGING A GRADUAL RETURN OF CLOUDINESS FROM SOUTH-
TO-NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.

A COASTAL TROF BEGINS DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT. MOIST UPGLIDE OVER
THE TROF, ALONG WITH A CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
PRECIP TO BEGIN REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AND
EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE THRU THE DAY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
SUNDAY. THERE IS NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM PER SE, OTHER THAN
MAYBE A ZONE OF SPEED CONVERGENCE AROUND H85 IF YOU SQUINT
ENOUGH...SO PRIMARILY WOULD EXPECT JUST A STEADY LIGHT TO
OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAIN THRU THE DAY SUNDAY.

THE NEXT WESTERN TROF WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO NCNTL
MEXICO THEN EJECT NE AND ACROSS TEXAS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THIS OCCURS, LOOK FOR THE COASTAL TROF/LOW TO BE PULLED INLAND
NEAR OR ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT. PW'S CLIMB TO 1.3-1.5"
WHICH IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THERE COULD NOW BE
A BOUNDARY TO FOCUS PRECIP UPON. TOO DIFFICULT TO SAY WHERE THIS
FAR OUT, BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONSIDERING ALREADY WET
GROUND AND ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS...

MUCH LIKE TODAY, WE'LL SEE A WNW WIND SHIFT AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS
MONDAY MORNING. A STRONGER (DRY) FRONT WILL FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT &
TUE. THIS FRONT ALSO LOOKS SHALLOW, BUT COLDER. SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATES UPGLIDE OVER THIS FRONT IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE/TROF. OPERATIONAL GFS IS DRY, BUT ECMWF/CMC/GFS-FV3 ALL
SHOW SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND
WED. NUDGED POPS UP A TOUCH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD (WILL ALSO
KEEP AN EYE ON ATMOSPHERIC TEMP PROFILE)... 47

[don]

18z GFS is now onboard also

[harp]

Let's see how it evolves in future runs....