FEBRUARY 2019: Cold Front & Storm Chances

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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Yeah, 38 for Monday night - keeping an eye on that. Plants are in full bloom now...
unome
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jasons wrote: Wed Feb 27, 2019 9:22 am Yeah, 38 for Monday night - keeping an eye on that. Plants are in full bloom now...
was thinking the very same thing, Sun & Mon night here both at 39 for the moment, sure hope that doesn't drop :( & trees already sprouting, if they get a freeze, would that make them go through the pollen-producing phase all over again ?
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unome wrote: Wed Feb 27, 2019 11:47 am
jasons wrote: Wed Feb 27, 2019 9:22 am Yeah, 38 for Monday night - keeping an eye on that. Plants are in full bloom now...
was thinking the very same thing, Sun & Mon night here both at 39 for the moment, sure hope that doesn't drop :( & trees already sprouting, if they get a freeze, would that make them go through the pollen-producing phase all over again ?
I believe we're looking 30-35 throughout most of the area. Areas north may even hit the upper 20s.
Still time to watch, stay weather aware.
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srainhoutx
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The computer models seem to be catching onto the very chilly air situated to our N and W this afternoon and it is looking a bit more likely that the shallow cold front will arrive tomorrow morning and could push S into the Coastal tier of Counties if not offshore by early tomorrow afternoon. The temperature forecast highs tomorrow could be very tricky.
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Katdaddy
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Temps in the mid to upper 60s along the coast with a Dense Fog Advisory in effect. A cold front is moving across SE TX and will drop temps into 50s late this morning into the afternoon. Another round of thunderstorms with brief heavy rain and small hail possible S and SE of Houston again this afternoon and evening.
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srainhoutx
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Rather impressive shallow cold air behind the front this morning. It was 68F at 1:30 AM and now 50F in my backyard. Kudos to the NAM for handling this cold and shallow airmass far better than the Global models did just 24 hours ago. I see the Dallas/Fort Worth Area is getting a freezing drizzle event that is causing numerous auto accidents and the closing of bridges and flyovers across N Texas. That was a surprise not in the forecast as late as last evening up in that Region.
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mckinne63
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srainhoutx wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:04 am Rather impressive shallow cold air behind the front this morning. It was 68F at 1:30 AM and now 50F in my backyard. Kudos to the NAM for handling this cold and shallow airmass far better than the Global models did just 24 hours ago. I see the Dallas/Fort Worth Area is getting a freezing drizzle event that is causing numerous auto accidents and the closing of bridges and flyovers across N Texas. That was a surprise not in the forecast as late as last evening up in that Region.
I was watching the news this morning, weatherman said this cold front was a surprise.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 281533
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
933 AM CST Thu Feb 28 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Front is now moving across the Galveston Island area (67 degrees
and a north wind at 7 mph at 9 AM at GLS), and temperatures will
be falling soon. Further down the coast, the front has already
passed through (Palacios is 53 degrees with a north wind at 16
mph). Visibilities will continue to improve, and the Dense Fog
Advisory will likely be allowed to expire at 10 AM.

Still looking at the possibility of some shower/thunderstorm
development this afternoon. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST Thu Feb 28 2019/

AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Front - or at least a wind shift - is through IAH, but LIFR
conditions remain across the area. Should see gradual improvement
to IFR late this morning, and MVFR this afternoon. Look for
thunder near/south of front...for now have VCTS from HOU
coastward. Conditions will begin to degrade again tomorrow when
winds turn back to easterly, but only begin to hint at that
downturn for now.

PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 442 AM CST Thu Feb 28 2019/...

NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Cold front at 10Z has basically made it to an IAH/SGR/US 59 line
or is at least the leading edge of the wind shift. Temperature
drop behind the front lags a little bit but there is a sharp
contrast in temperatures across the front. Ahead of the front
temperatures are a soupy mid/upper 60s with less soupy 40s/50s
behind the front. Front is rather shallow based on available AMDAR
sounding data behind the front. Front might be 3000-4000 feet
deep and moisture continues to ride over the front as it pushes
south. What this means is that there will be dense fog ahead of
the front and then not as foggy behind the front. Visibility may
improve from 1/4 mile to 2-4 miles behind the front. Cold front is
on track to push off the coast later this morning and slowly end
dense fog. Dense fog advisories will expire as currently timed
which overall matches well with the frontal timing. With cloud
cover expected to continue today and some shallow cold advection,
temperatures should drop and remain in the 40s/50s for much of the
day. Oddly enough, temperatures do not drop much tonight given
cloud cover and the cold front stalls offshore.

The main concern today will be possibly another round of
thunderstorms for the Houston area southward along the coast.
Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show a jet streak
over the southern Rockies moving into the Big Bend. This feature
should reach the area around 18Z today with large scale lift
increasing through the afternoon. Combined with frontogenetic
lift due to the front, there will certainly be enough lift to
support higher rain chances. Instability will be tricky to
evaluate but HRRR model soundings at KLBX show some elevated CAPE
to consider so there could be a strong storm to form with small
hail. Most unstable CAPE comes in at around 500-1000 J/kg so
enough that if there is strong forced ascent that small hail is
possible. SPC has the area in general thunderstorm and no severe
threat. I think this is on track as hail should be smaller than
severe levels.

SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]...

Basically our stalled front in the Gulf either washes out or moves
north as a warm front Friday into Saturday. This means dewpoints
in the upper 60s return overnight and set the stage for more sea
fog in marine areas. Temperatures should rebound on Friday into
at least the 60s and depending upon cloud cover possibly low 70s.
Boundary layer flow increases from the south to southwest on
Saturday so temperatures could reach the upper 70s. GFS seems to
think 80F is in play and it is, but rather lean more on the
ensemble means that have upper 70s.

LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

Main story in the long term forecast will be the strong Canadian
cold front that is expected on Sunday. Models are in pretty good
agreement with the front pushing through the area during the day
Sunday as a short wave trough axis pushes by the area across the
southern Plains. The passing of this wave with ageostrophic from
the jet streak will give the front a good push. There is always
the chance the front could push into the area sooner in the day
given the cold dense airmass but for now I`d rather lean on the
dynamical forcing of the front than airmass/density differences.
Given these possibilities, the temperature forecast for Sunday is
pretty much a bust every where. There will be some areas that are
significantly colder than forecast and areas warmer than forecast
just depending upon the timing of the front.

There should be at least a chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms with the front pushing through the area so will keep
some higher rain chances in the forecast. The cold front should
clear out any sea fog on Sunday but cloudy conditions should
continue. The 850mb front does not reach the area so still looking
at some possible isentropic lift leading to light rain/drizzle on
Monday. The 850mb front finally pushes through Tue/Wed which
allows for colder air to remain in place over the area.
Temperatures in the 30s for lows Tue/Wed look on track. A few
areas may reach the freezing mark for a couple hours each morning.
High temperatures reach back into the 50s. It looks like
temperatures during this time will be a good 10 to 15 degrees
below normal.

Overpeck

MARINE...
A weak cold front is moving towards the coast early this morning,
and will push across the waters through the morning hours. Once
it passes, winds will shift to becoming northerly, then
northeasterly tonight. This may inhibit fog development for a
brief period, but with winds becoming easterly tomorrow, the
potential for sea fog will return and stay with us until another,
more significant front moves through Sunday morning.

In the wake of that front, look for SCEC to SCA level conditions
Sunday into Monday. Though not quite as strong deeper into the
week, gusty northeast winds are expected to dominate most of the
first half of next week.

Despite the short period of offshore flow, look for tides to
continue above predicted astronomical values by about half a foot
to a foot throughout.

Luchs

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 48 46 70 60 76 / 30 10 10 10 30
Houston (IAH) 56 50 71 62 78 / 40 20 20 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 64 55 66 63 72 / 80 30 20 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Coastal Brazoria...
Coastal Galveston...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

&&

$$
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jasons2k
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Only a 30% chance of rain today appears to be a bust.
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tireman4
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